Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets for SNF Week 13
- The Denver Broncos visit the Kansas City Chiefs, looking to upset the NFL’s best offense (8:20 EST)
- Last week’s picks went 1-2, costing us 1.27 units
- Find out which Chiefs players will go off tonight, because you know at least a few will
Sunday nights are normally reserved for the best matchups of the week, but sometimes, they’re just a chance for the league’s greatest players to show off. We got that last week when Aaron Rodgers carved up the Bears and tonight appears headed for another blowout, as the Kansas City Chiefs are 14-point favorites over the Denver Broncos.
The Chiefs demolished Denver 43-16 back in Week 7 despite a pedestrian (by his lofty standards) day from Patrick Mahomes. Will Kansas City’s quarterback have a better statistical day this time around, or should you play some Chiefs UNDERs against a pretty stout Denver defense?
Broncos vs Chiefs Player Props
|Passers||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Drew Lock (DEN)||21.5 (Ov +115 | Un -143)||237.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||1.5 (Ov +135 | Un -167)|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||26.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||310.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||2.5 (Ov -114 | Un -109)|
|Rushers||Rush Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Melvin Gordon (DEN)||N/A||54.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||63.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)||N/A||50.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||67.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Receivers||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Jerry Jeudy (DEN)||3.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108)||50.5 (Ov +113 | Un -130)||20.5 (Ov +102 | Un -130)|
|Tim Patrick (DEN)||3.5 (Ov +100 | Un -125)||42.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||20.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Noah Fant (DEN)||3.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115)||38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||5.5 (Ov -177 | Un +140)||73.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||28.5 (Ov -128 | Un +100)|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||5.5 (Ov -134 | Un +108)||69.5 (Ov -130 | Un +105)||23.5 (Ov -113 | Un -113)|
|Sammy Watkins (KC)||3.5 (Ov -155 | Un +122)||46.5 (Ov -120 | Un -120)||18.5 (Ov -102 | Un -125)|
Odds taken Nov. 29 from DraftKings and FanDuel
December Is Clyde Time
The Chiefs haven’t really unleashed their ground game in few weeks, relying on Mahomes arm to lead them to victories all through November. Now as the weather gets colder, expect the Chiefs to rely on the rush a little more, starting with tonight against a Broncos defense that allowed 158 rushing yards a game last month.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s status for tonight is in question after he came down with the flu late this week. His status is worth monitoring right up until kickoff, but if he is good to go, he presents a great candidate to crush some OVERs in this matchup.
TOUCHDOWN#Chiefs: 7#Broncos: 0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire runs in the 11-yard touchdown. Great first drive for the Chiefs. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/iUZ9drQoxB
— Mitchel Summers (@WIBWMitchel) October 25, 2020
The shifty rookie had 63 total yards against Denver on just nine touches in Week 7. With the game likely in hand early, a few more touches should be there for CEH to help him hit this prop.
Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire OVER 67.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113)
Don’t Head for the Hill
Coming off a dominant 269-yard showing against the Buccaneers — 203 of which came in the first quarter — Tyreek Hill will be a popular prop play tonight. I think all those people expecting an encore of that performance are going to be disappointed.
The Broncos are currently the 4th best team in the league against deep passes by DVOA. This while they've shuffled corners and adjusted to no Von Miller, Shelby Harris, and Jurrell Casey.
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) December 2, 2020
Hill has followed up the four previous best games of his career as follows: 1 catch, 13 yards; 4 catches, 75 yards; five catches, 90 yards; 0 catches, 0 yards. This is a loaded Chiefs offense and rarely is the same guy the star performer two weeks in a row.
Tyreek Hill hit a backflip into the end-zone 😅
— ESPN (@espn) November 29, 2020
I don’t want to short any of his other props, because Hill is always a split-second away from breaking a big one. However, there’s way too heavy a vig on his over 5.5 receptions. On a night where the Chiefs will be attacking the Broncos in a ton of different ways, I don’t think Hill will finish with six catches or more.
Pick: 0.75 units on Tyreek Hill UNDER 5.5 receptions (+140)
Broncos vs Chiefs Scoring Props
|Team||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Tyreek Hill (KC)||+500||-162|
|Travis Kelce (KC)||+650||-125|
|Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC)||+800||+110|
|Le’Veon Bell (KC)||+1000||+125|
|Sammy Watkins (KC)||+1300||+190|
|Melvin Gordon (DEN)||+1300||+160|
|Patrick Mahomes (KC)||+1600||+260|
|Demarcus Robinson (KC)||+1600||+250|
|Mecole Hardman (KC)||+1800||+300|
|Philip Lindsay (DEN)||+2000||+275|
As you can tell from these TD props, bookmakers aren’t expecting much from Denver’s offense tonight: there’s not a single receiver on the Broncos going for first score at less than +2200. But it’s not like Drew Lock and company are completely inept. They racked up over 400 yards of offense in the first meeting with the Chiefs, but four turnovers ended up costing them.
Leaders in Turnover-Worthy Plays:
1. Carson Wentz – 24
2. Josh Allen – 18
T-3. Drew Lock/ Ryan Tannehill – 16 pic.twitter.com/7hlHy6kPUM
— PFF (@PFF) December 4, 2020
There’s some value on backing any Denver players to score first, because of those insanely long odds, but from what we’ve seen from Lock this season, he’s at his most effective in the fourth quarter playing from way behind.
Drew Lock has played in 24 quarters this year (outside of a few plays v Pitt).
Lock’s stats in 4th quarters against Chargers & Flacons:
306 yards (65.8% completion)
5 passing TDs
In the other 22 quarters Lock’s played:
1,171 yards (54.1% completion)
2 passing TDs
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) November 16, 2020
With that in mind, let’s spread some capital around on his three biggest receivers to find the endzone. In a game that will likely see Denver down big late, a couple garbage-time scores could end up being quite profitable.
Pick: 0.5 units on Jerry Jeudy (+300) and Noah Fant (+300); 0.25 units on Tim Patrick (+450) to score anytime TD