Dolphins vs Bills Player Prop Bets & Picks for Thursday Night Football

• The Bills are heavy favorites over the Dolphins on TNF tonight
• De’Von Achane leads all NFL running backs in targets and catches
• See my favorite Dolphins vs Bills player prop bets and predictions for TNF

Week 3 kicks off with an AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins (0-2, 0-1 away) and the Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-0 home). This game is littered with star power, and names like Josh Allen, James Cook, Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane will be extremely popular in the props markets.

I’ve compiled a list of my favorite Dolphins vs Bills player-prop bets from tonight’s TNF odds, below. Keep reading for the odds and the reasoning behind each pick.

Dolphins vs Bills Player Props

I’m starting my Dolphins vs Bills player prop bets with over 38.5 receiving yards for Achane. The Dolphins RB has the third highest receiving yards prop among Dolphins, while only two Bills pass catchers have a higher projection. I’ll follow that up with under 15.5 carries for Bills running back James Cook. He boasts a carries over/under of 3 attempts more than Achane, but with Buffalo being a massive favorite, I’m betting the Bills reduce his workload once the game is out of reach.

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Looking for more Miami/Buffalo picks to tail? Check out John Hyslop’s three-leg, +117 Dolphins vs Bills same-game parlay

Dolphins vs Bills Player Prop Bet #1: De’Von Achane Receiving Yards

The arm strength of Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa has been questioned for good reason. He’s gone viral for brutally underthrowing Hill numerous times, but he’s still capable of dumping the ball off. When he does check it down, it’s to Achane early and often. Achane enters play leading all running backs in receptions and targets, while ranking second in receiving yards.

De’Von Achane Receiving Stats – 2025

He’s fresh off an 8 catch, 92 yard performance through the air last week, and caught 7+ passes in both meetings versus Buffalo last season. Also working in his favor is the Bills injury situation. Matt Milano, arguably their best coverage linebacker is out for this game, meaning Achane will have a favorable matchup all night. As a big underdog, the Dolphins should be throwing a ton in catch up mode, which will only Achane’s usage through the air.

• De’Von Achane Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel); 1 unit

Dolphins vs Bills Prop Bet #2: James Cook Rush Attempts

Entering play, Buffalo leads all NFL teams in rushing attempts. So why fade their top running back in the carries market? Well, if the Bills want to remain the Super Bowl odds favorite, they’ll need their skill position players healthy. Cook just carried the ball 21 times four days ago in New York, and Buffalo would be wise to limit his workload, especially if they’re playing from ahead as expected.

The Dolphins rush defense is atrocious, so when Cook does carry the rock he’ll find success, which is why I’m staying away from his rushing yards prop. I don’t believe they’ll need to lean on him to salt this game away, especially with capable backs Ray Davis and Ty Johnson behind him.

The Bills have a history of being conservative with Cook, only running him into the ground when they need to. He failed to clear 15.5 rushing attempts in 12 of 16 regular season games last year, including both versus Miami.

• James Cook Under 15.5 Rushing Attempts (-140 at FanDuel); 1 unit

Dolphins vs Bills Touchdown Scorer Props

Moving over to the Dolphins vs Bills touchdown scorer props, where Cook is favored to score first, while he and Allen both have the shortest anytime TD odds. A little further down the board we’ll find Keon Coleman, who’s in line for a bounce back effort after a disappointing Week 2.

Dolphins vs Bills Touchdown Prop Bet #3: Keon Coleman Anytime TD

So far through two weeks, Miami has made Daniel Jones and Drake Maye look like All-Pro’s. Imagine what Allen will do to them. Last year’s winner in the NFL MVP odds will shred this poor secondary every time he drops back, and he loves targeting Coleman in the red zone. Coleman leads the Bills in targets inside the 20 this season, after finishing second in that metric as a rookie. Buffalo drew up a goal line fade for him on a two-point conversion attempt in Week 1, and I like the size matchup he has over these underwhelming Dolphin corners.

• Keon Coleman Anytime TD (+180 at FanDuel); 1 unit