Dolphins vs Bears Picks, Predictions, Odds & Probable Starters (Aug 10)

• The Miami Dolphins and Chicago Bears start their preseason campaigns on Sunday in the Windy City
• The total opened at 36.5, went down to 32.5, and is now back to 36.5
• See the Dolphins vs Bears odds and probable starters, plus my best picks and predictions for

The Chicago Bears (4-0 last preseason) host the Miami Dolphins (2-1 in 2024 preseason) at 12:00 pm CT/1:00 pm ET on Sunday at Soldier Field. Chicago is coming off another disappointing season, going 5-12 in Caleb Williams’ rookie campaign. But before they were the punching bags of the stacked NFC North, they ran rampant through the 2024 preseason, posting a 4-0 record with a 17-point average margin of victory.

Williams and the bulk of Chicago’s starters aren’t going to see any action in Sunday’s matinee. But Miami is in a similar position, and the Bears have been positioned as slight 2.5-point favorites in Sunday’s NFL odds.

Miami Dolphins vs Chicago Bears Odds

The spread, which opened at Chicago -2.5, has increased half a point to -3 at all sportsbooks with only slight variations in price. The best option for Miami ATS bettors is +3 (-105) at bet365. Chicago ATS bettors won’t find better than -3 (-110), which is available at BetMGM, Caesars, or FanDuel. On the moneyline, FanDuel has the best price on a Chicago victory at -160, while DraftKings has the longest odds on a Miami upset at +145. The game total is 36.5 across the board. Caesars has the under priced at -105.

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MIA vs CHI Odds Movement & Public-Betting Splits

The total has bounced around considerably over the course of the week. After opening at 36.5, it was bet all the way down to 32.5 when it was announced that Caleb Williams and counterpart Tua Tagovailoa wouldn’t play (along with many other key starters for both teams). But this preseason has been very high scoring on the whole, which is likely part of the motivation for the total coming all the way back to 36.5 as of Sunday morning.

The NFL public betting splits show the underdog getting the majority of ATS and moneyline handle. As of 10:00 am ET, Miami is getting 60% of ATS handle (on 58% of wagers) and 74% of moneyline handle (on just 38% of wagers). The public is also hammering the over, putting 65% of O/U handle and 83% of O/U wagers on the over so far.

Dolphins vs Bears Probable Starters

Earlier this week, Miami head coach Mike McDaniel said he “wasn’t sure” if Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the Dolphin starters would play in preseason Week 1. Tua, one of the most-fragile players in the league due to his concussion history, hasn’t played in the opening preseason game since 2021.

Given the injuries on Miami’s offensive line (four starters have an injury designation), it would be a truly puzzling move for McDaniel to play his oft-injured starter today. But McDaniel has Zach Wilson, the #2 pick in 2021, and promising rookie Quinn Ewers behind Tua on the depth chart. Ewers has, by all accounts, looked like the best pivot in training camp.

The Bears will roll with a combination of Tyson Bageant, Case Keenum, and Austin Reed under center. They won’t have tight end Colstand Loveland, Chicago’s top pick in the 2025 draft (10th overall), at their disposal, either, as first-year head coach Ben Johnson is going to keep the rookie on the sideline.

Dolphins vs Bears Picks & Predictions

• Miami moneyline (+145) at DraftKings
• Under 36.5 (-105) at Caesars

The overall trend in the NFL preseason thus far has been underdogs winning outright. The underdog won straight-up in each of the first three preseason games and ‘dogs are still 8-7 straight-up heading into Sunday’s pair of games. The moral of the story is that neither sportsbooks or bettors have much of an idea how any given team will look in its first preseason contest.

When you factor in that the Bears have already stated their key starters are unlikely to play, and that they have pretty abysmal QB depth, you start to look for reasons to bet Miami on the moneyline.

The biggest reason I can find is the play of Ewers in training camp. If Tua plays, it will be one series max, which will leave 95% of the game in the hands of Ewers and Zach Wilson. The common trend is to play third and fourth-string QBs in the first week of the preseason, and I love Ewers’ chances of outdueling the likes of Austin Reed.