Eagles vs Falcons Prop Bets: Matt Ryan Picks Apart Philly Defense
- Week 2’s Sunday Night Football matchup has the Philadelphia Eagles heading to Atlanta to face the Falcons
- Went 3-0 on Week 1 props, profiting 3.76 units
- See our three best props to bet for SNF Week 2
Thanks to some garbage time completions by Ben Roethlisberger in the Steelers’ Week 1 blowout loss to the Patriots, we opened the season 3-0 and won 3.76 units.
This Sunday will be capped with a matchup of two high flying offenses who combined for over 600 yards through the air in Week 1. The Philadelphia Eagles head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a game that should have no shortage of big plays, as both offenses sport plenty of weapons and both defenses struggled mightily in Week 1.
Surely there is a prop or two to take advantage of in this potential barn burner. (If you’re looking for more betting info on the game, see our Eagles vs Falcons odds.)
Prop 1: Both Teams Score Over 19.5 Points
| Both Teams Score Over 19.5 Points | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | (-147) |
| No | (+116) |
*All odds taken September 15
Before even diving in here, just knowing a healthy Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan are squaring off in a prime time Sunday night matchup gets me giddy for the potential firework show that could put a cap on Sunday’s action.
In 2018, the Falcons cleared 19.5 points 10 times, a 63% rate. They allowed over 19.5 points 12 times, 75% of the time. The Eagles cleared 19.5 points 13 times in 2018 (81%). They gave up 19.5 points 10 times (63%).
In total, 26 teams averaged over 19.5 points per game in 2018. That is 81% of the teams in the NFL. Week 1 saw 21 of 32 teams over 19.5 points (66%). Simple enough? Scoring 20 points in a game in today’s NFL just isn’t that difficult.
Remember when the Eagles gave up 27 points at home last week to what is supposed to be a scrub Redskins offense? Or what about the Falcons letting the Vikings walk run all over them for 28 points. Minnesota only had to throw the ball ten times.
Will either of these defenses show up in Week 2? I don’t think so.
Pick: Yes (-147)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.68 units
Prop 2: Jordan Howard Rushing Yards
| Jordan Howard Rushing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 30.5 | -114 |
| Under 30.5 | -114 |
I will be the first to admit I have no idea how the touches in the Eagles backfield will be doled out in Week 2. However, running behind one of the better offensive lines in the league in Week 1, Jordan Howard was able to amass 44 rushing yards on only 6 carries.
Jordan Howard won’t say it, but I can: Get this man the rock! https://t.co/wC9T7GxNZw
— Reuben Frank (@RoobNBCS) September 9, 2019
He shouldn’t need much work to crack the 30 yard mark with his o-line and a defense that is coming off a game that saw their opponent’s top two backs steamroll them for 160 yards on 30 carries – that’s 5.3 yards per tote.
In 2018, Atlanta didn’t fare much better against the run, giving up 1,999 rushing yards at 4.9 YPC to come in as the 25th ranked run defense.
Looking to Howard, he’s surpassed 30 yards on the ground in 41 out of 49 career games. This 30.5 rushing total seems like a gift.
Pick: Jordan Howard Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop 3: Matt Ryan Passing Yards
| Matt Ryan Passing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 300.5 | -114 |
| Under 300.5 | -114 |
It was hard to pick up much from Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ Week 1 passing performance. Atlanta got down early and had to press to try to get back in a game against one of the league’s better defenses.
Ryan was still able to post 304 yards in Minnesota. Ryan has averaged over 300 passing yards per game in two of the last three seasons.
Let’s take a look at the Eagles last 10 oppenent’s passing success.
| Week | Opposition QB | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 1 | WAS Case Keenum | 380 |
| 2018 Div Round | @NO Drew Brees | 301 |
| 2018 Wild Card | @CHI Mitch Tribisky | 303 |
| 2018 Week 17 | @WAS Josh Johnson | 91 |
| 2018 Week 16 | HOU Deshaun Watson | 339 |
| 2018 Week 15 | @LAR Jared Goff | 339 |
| 2018 Week 14 | @DAL Dak Prescott | 455 |
| 2018 Week 13 | WAS Mark Sanchez/Colt McCoy | 150 |
| 2018 Week 12 | NYG Eli Manning | 297 |
| 2018 Week 11 | @NO Drew Brees | 363 |
Excuse the two 2018 games versus Washington and focus on the eight against decent QBs. They’ve allowed 2,777 yards through the air in those games. That works out to 347 passing yards per game, and over a 16 game season, the NFL passing record.
Just to add a little more salt for taste, over their last 10 road games, the Eagles have surrendered 316 passing yards per game, which even factors in the 91 yard Johnson performance.
With the Falcons run game looking less then explosive Week 1, Ryan will be relied on to carry the offense once again.
Pick: Matt Ryan Over 300.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units
Nick Ferris is a seasoned fantasy football vet of over 20 years. He's an expert in everything from best ball to daily fantasy sports. Although arm chair quarterback is as close he ever got to the field - or are we counting 7v7 touch? - he has been fortunate enough to coach some youth football.
