Early Patriots vs Bills Odds and Betting Lines for AFC Wild Card Matchup

• The Buffalo Bills opened up as 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots on Saturday of Super Wild Card Weekend (Jan. 15, 8:15 pm ET)
• These two AFC East rivals split the season series 1-1
• Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff

For the second straight season the Buffalo Bills are the AFC East champions. The Bills wrapped up their second straight division title on Sunday, beating the New York Jets 27-10 in front of the Buffalo faithful. It was the first time they’ve clinched the AFC East at home since 1995, and the first time they’ve wrapped up back-to-back division crowns since the early 90’s.

Their reward for claiming the AFC’s third seed and ruling the division once again? A date with the New England Patriots for the third time this season. These two division rivals split the season series 1-1, in two vastly different game scripts.

Patriots vs Bills Opening Odds

Odds as of Jan. 10th at FanDuel.

The Bills opened up as 4.5-point favorites in this AFC Wild Card matchup, in a game that features a total of 43.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET on Saturday (Jan. 15th) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.

Buffalo fell to New England 14-10 at home in Week 13, in a game dominated by extreme wind. The Pats threw the ball just three times, while the teams combined for only 471 yards of offense.

Three weeks later in Foxboro, The Bills handled the Pats 33-21, led by Josh Allen’s three touchdown passes.

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Buffalo’s division clinching win over the Jets wasn’t pretty, especially on offense and special teams. Punter Matt Haack averaged only 33.9 yards per punt, with three of his kicks travelling less than 25 yards.

The offense meanwhile, scored a touchdown on its first drive, but didn’t find the end zone again until the final quarter. Allen struggled with his accuracy again on a windy day, finishing with a sub 54% completion percentage for the second consecutive game. He’s now thrown for less than 240 yards in three of his past four outings, something he didn’t do at any point last season.

For the second straight year, the Bills are the AFC East champs. pic.twitter.com/JPkboRr75Q

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 10, 2022

To make up for his passing inefficiency, Allen has been running more lately. He’s rushed for at least 60 yards in four of his past five starts, including a 109 yard rushing performance last month versus Tampa Bay.

Defensively, it was a completely different story. The Bills made rookie Zach Wilson’s life miserable all afternoon. They sacked him eight times, and allowed him to complete only seven of 20 throws. New York mustered a franchise-low 53 yards of total offense, while the performance solidified Buffalo as the league’s number one scoring defense.

2021 Buffalo Bills Defense

#1 Total Yards
– Only team under 5K total
– Only team under 300 yds per game

#1 Pass Defense
– Only team under 3K passing yards

#1 Scoring Defense
– Only team under 300 points allowed

DOMINANT!#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/AwH3wfSoP8

— Greg Cover 1 🏈 (@GregTompsett) January 10, 2022

The Bills were missing wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders due to a knee injury, but didn’t lose any key contributors on Sunday. They’ll head into the playoffs in relatively good health.

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

The Pats meanwhile, lost to the Miami Dolphins 33-24 in their season finale. New England limps into the playoffs with three losses in their final four games, while rookie Mac Jones turned in another disappointing effort.

Mac Jones: “It’s super embarrassing, from my point, how I played.” pic.twitter.com/JOyGLvvnTD

— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) January 10, 2022

Jones completed 20 of 30 pass attempts for 261 yards and a score, but also threw a pick-six, was sacked twice, and lost a fumble. His 12.7 QBR was the second lowest mark of his career, with the lowest coming against the Bills in Week 13 when he attempted only three passes.

Mac Jones 🎯 Xavien Howard for 6️⃣
pic.twitter.com/HjPOPmWuXQ

— PFF (@PFF) January 9, 2022

The 33 points allowed matches the second most the Patriots have coughed up all season, after surrendering the same amount to Buffalo three games ago, and 35 points to Dallas earlier in the campaign.

New England is back in the playoffs after missing the postseason last year, but enter as one of three AFC Wild Card teams. It’s the first time they’ve qualified as a Wild Card team under Bill Belichick, after their previous 17 appearances were all as a division champ.

On the injury front, starting left tackle Isaiah Wynn left Sunday’s game with an ankle injury, while backup running back Rhamondre Stevenson also left with a head injury. Starting defensive lineman Christian Barmore suffered an undisclosed injury in the final two minutes, while reserve DB Sean Davis left with a shoulder issue.

Patriots vs Bills Line Movement

Buffalo was a 2.5-point favorite when these two teams met in Orchard Park in Week 13, and a 1-point underdog at New England in Week 16. Yes, the Pats are struggling at the moment, but sharp bettors aren’t going to let a Bill Belichick team stay a 4.5-point underdog for long.

For the first time as HC of the #Patriots, Bill Belichick will be going into the playoffs as a Wild Card team and not as the AFC East division winner.

Crazy.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 10, 2022

Expect most of the early money to come in on New England, pushing this line down towards a field goal. If it does fall to Buffalo -3, expect some buy back on the Bills. If you like the Pats in this spot, act quickly.