Upcoming Match-ups

Early NFL Props to Target for Week 1

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in NFL Football

Updated Sep 5, 2023 · 6:40 AM UTC

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and assistant coach Dave Tomb
Aug 26, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and assistant coach Dave Tomb watch play against the Cleveland Browns during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
  • Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday, September 7th with many of the games going Sunday
  • Patrick Mahomes has dominated in NFL season openers throughout his career and is a great player to target in this week’s early NFL props to target
  • See all of our best early NFL player props to select for Week 1 NFL action

The highly anticipated 2023 NFL campaign is about to start with a fevered pitch, beginning with the Detroit Lions in Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Thursday. Sunday offers up a slate of 14 games, followed by the Bills/Jets tilt on Monday Night Football and we’re pickedo out three early NFL player props to target for Week 1 here.

There are a slew of potential player NFL props to wager on as the opening weekend kicks off, with all 32 teams in action, however, many of the odds have yet to be released. Here’s a look at some of the early key props you should be targeting this week in prop markets.

NFL Week 1 Player Props to Target

Player (Team) Prop
Patrick Mahomes (KC) Over touchdown passes
AJ Dillon (GB) Anytime touchdown scorer
Derek Carr (NO) Over passing yardage

See our top early prop bets to target in the NFL odds here, with Patrick Mahomes, AJ Dillon and Derek Carr coming in for our early NFL props to target.

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Patrick Mahomes Feasts In Season Openers

Patrick Mahomes has wasted little time getting off to a scorching start to his seasons in his career. In his first five Week 1s, the Chiefs have scored 38, 40, 34, 33 and 44 points for an average of 37.8 points a contest.

In those five affairs, the reigning NFL MVP has racked up 18 TD passes, eclipsing at least three in each instance, including a career-high five last season versus Arizona.

He’s up against a Detroit Lions squad that allowed 26 TD passes last year, tied for eighth worst in the National Football League. With his scintillating record to begin campaigns, getting him at plus-money on something he’s done each attempt in his career is very intriguing.

NFL Prop Picks: Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 touchdown passes (+100)

AJ Dillon a Touchdown Machine Late Last Year

Last season, the Green Bay Packers leaned on AJ Dillon over Aaron Jones to find pay dirt towards the end of the year. In fact, Dillon scampered to the end zone six times in the final six duels, compared to Jones’ three scores in his last ten outings.

Also aiding Dillon is the fact that his opponent is the Chicago Bears, who not only were the worst team last season, but they also surrendered 31 rushing TDs, the most in the league.

The Bears allowed 12 rushing TDs in their last five battles, including a Dillon score. In that game, he rushed for 93 yards and 18 carries for an average of 5.2 yards a pop. He’s tied for shortest odds to record a touchdown Sunday amongst Packers players.

Touchdown Prop Bets: AJ Dillon anytime touchdown scorer (+150)

Derek Carr Should Feast On Titans Secondary

The Tennessee Titans had a miserable end to last season, dropping their final seven affairs. One of the reasons was their passing defense surrendering the highest yards per game in the National Football League (274.8 yards).

The team also failed to address the problems in the draft, taking offensive players with all six selections. That’s where New Orleans Saints QB Derek Carr can feast on them in climate controlled Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

For his career, the former Raiders signal caller has averaged 281.2 passing yards per game in five times facing Tennessee. His lowest passing output was a still respectable 249 yards. He’s set up to have a big game headed by last year’s first round pick Chris Olave, who was second in receiving yards amongst rookies (1,042). Target Carr to go over his passing yards total in the early NFL props to target to this week.

NFL Prop Picks: Derek Carr over passing yards

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