Early NFL Props to Target for Week 13 – Derrick Henry, Stefon Diggs & More

• Week 13 kicks off with a Thanksgiving triple-header and plenty of exploitable matchups
• Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and Stefon Diggs headline my top NFL player props for Week 13
• Check out my early Week 13 NFL player prop breakdowns with three juicy spots across the holiday slate

We bounced back in a big way last week on NFL props, going 3-0 and nailing all three picks, including Jahmyr Gibbs torching the Giants (200+ yards). That’s exactly the momentum we want heading into Thanksgiving week.

Now we’ve got a loaded slate with three Thursday games, a Black Friday showdown, and Monday Night Football to close things out. It’s a nice treat for NFL prop bettors with this much action spread across the holiday.

I’ve identified three players who I believe hold key matchup edges in Week 13, and have honed in on their prop markets. Let’s stay hot with some early Week 13 NFL player props to target.

NFL Week 13 Player Props to Target

Projected odds as of November 25th, 2025. Sign up at our top recommended NFL betting apps to pounce on these props when they’re released.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Rushing Yards

Henry gets the Bengals on Thanksgiving night, and I love this spot. Cincinnati’s run defense is the worst in football, ranking dead last against running backs at 26.6 fantasy points allowed per game. They’ve surrendered 1,442 rushing yards with nine touchdowns on the ground this season.

The future Hall of Famer just passed Marcus Allen, Edgerrin James, and Marshall Faulk on the all-time rushing list last week. He now sits 12th all-time with 871 yards this season (79.2 per game, 4.7 per carry) and needs just 19 yards to pass Jim Brown for 11th place. You know he wants that milestone on national television.

Henry has recorded at least 20 touches in six consecutive games, showing elite workload consistency. His red zone usage is ridiculous, too, leading the league with 42 red zone touches and 41 red zone rushes. When Baltimore gets close, Henry gets the ball.

The Ravens are seven-point favorites at home, setting up perfectly for a run-heavy game script. Baltimore will want to control the clock, keep Joe Burrow off the field, and let Henry pound away. This is the perfect storm: high volume, home primetime, and the worst run defense in the league. I’m expecting a big night.

• Early Bet: Derrick Henry over 89.5 rushing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Stefon Diggs Receiving Yards

Diggs had a quiet Week 12 with just two catches for 20 yards on three targets, but this matchup against the Giants on Monday night sets up much better. New York just fired their defensive coordinator, and things could get ugly for a team already eliminated from playoff contention.

The Giants rank seventh-worst in adjusted receiving yards allowed to wide receivers at 163.0 per game. They’re also allowing 8.77 adjusted yards per target to wideouts, the eighth-highest rate in football. Diggs should feast against this secondary.

The reason to feel safe about this pick is the fact Diggs has caught multiple passes in every single game this season. That’s 12 straight games with at least two receptions, providing us with a rock-solid floor. He’s sitting on a 61-679-3 line on 75 targets, averaging 6.25 targets per game with consistent usage regardless of game script.

Drake Maye leads the NFL with 3,130 passing yards this season. The Patriots are 10-2 and riding a nine-game winning streak. While Hunter Henry has become Maye’s favorite target at tight end, Diggs still leads among Patriots wideouts in both targets and production with a 27 percent target share in man coverage.

Diggs loves the Monday spotlight, as he has gone for 51-plus receiving yards in seven of his last eight MNF appearances. He destroyed the last man-heavy defense he faced, going for nine catches and 105 yards against the Jets. The Giants play a lot of man coverage, which plays straight into his strengths.

At 56.6 yards per game this season, he’s still several yards above the projected 50.5 line. I believe the market is undervaluing Diggs, and that this will be a great bounce-back spot for the former Buffalo Bill.

• Early Bet: Stefon Diggs over 50.5 receiving yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards

Barkley has struggled this season, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry with 684 rushing yards through 11 games (62.2 per game). But Black Friday against Chicago might be exactly what he needs to get right, and I think this is the spot to buy low.

The Bears rank 28th in rush defense, allowing 5.2 yards per carry and 1,190 rushing yards on the season. Teams are gashing them regularly: Cowboys (121 yards), Giants (169), Lions and Ravens (both 177), and somehow the Raiders ripped off 240. If the Raiders can run wild on this defense, the reigning Offensive Player of the Year certainly can.

Barkley was limited in practice earlier this week with a groin injury, but he has two more sessions before Friday’s contest and is expected to play. He managed just 22 rushing yards on 10 carries in Week 12 while dealing with the issue.

“I’ve been kind of nonexistent this year,” Barkley admitted after the Dallas loss. “I’ve gotta figure it out for the team.” The Bears are the perfect opponent to figure it out against. The projected 75.5 line is very attainable considering he’s gone off for 80+ against more talented defenses such as KC and Detroit.

• Early Bet: Saquon Barkley over 75.5 rushing yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 17-19

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