Early NFL Props to Target for Week 14 – Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams & More

• My early Week 14 player props look to target struggling defenses in key divisional matchups
• Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, and Rome Odunze headline my top NFL player props for Week 14
• Check out my early Week 14 NFL player prop breakdowns with the best value plays

Week 14 brings some juicy matchups for NFL prop bettors. We’ve got a massive Thursday night game, divisional clashes with playoff implications, and several defenses that have been getting torched all season long.

I’ve locked in on three plays where the matchups line up perfectly. These NFL player props target specific defensive weaknesses against backs and receivers set up for heavy workloads. Two overs and an under that all have strong statistical backing.

Here are the three early NFL player props I’m targeting for Week 14.

NFL Week 14 Player Props to Target

Projected odds as of December 2nd. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on NFL games.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards

Gibbs just went ballistic against the Giants, racking up 219 rushing yards on only 15 carries. Through 12 games, he’s tallied 175 carries for 1,019 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 84.9 rushing yards per game. Now he gets a Cowboys defense that has struggled against the run all year.

Dallas allows 5.12 adjusted yards per carry, ranking 28th in the league. The Cowboys are surrendering 124.67 rushing yards per game, and they’ve been especially vulnerable to explosive backs who can break tackles. Detroit ranks ninth in rush rate at 41.4% and possesses the offensive line to bully Dallas up front.

The game script sets up perfectly here. Detroit is favored at home in a game with a massive 54.5 total. The Lions want to establish the run to control the clock, and Gibbs has cleared this number in five of his 12 games this season. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry on the year, meaning he doesn’t need massive volume to hit this number.

What stands out is Gibbs’ explosiveness when the matchup is right. Check out his recent game log:

He leads the NFL in runs of 20-plus yards, including 14 runs of 30-plus yards. Against a Cowboys defense that can be undisciplined in their gap assignments, one or two big plays could cash this prop early.

Here’s the best part: Gibbs has exceeded 76.5 rushing yards in five straight games when favored by fewer than seven points, averaging a massive 119.0 yards in those contests. Detroit is favored by right around that margin on Thursday, making this situational trend extremely relevant.

Gibbs’ 74.5-yard projected prop line sits well below his 84.9 season average, creating clear value on a back who just proved he can break a slate wide open.

• Early Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs over 74.5 rushing yards

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins

Must be 21+. T&C Apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

LOCK IN PROMO

SIGNUP PROMO

BET $5
GET $150

BET NOW

NFL Player Prop Pick: Kyren Williams Rushing Yards

Williams has seen his workload reduced slightly with Blake Corum getting touches, but he’s still the clear lead back for the Rams. He played 35 snaps to Corum’s 17 last week and remains the engine of this offense, especially near the goal line.

Through 12 games, Williams has tallied 183 carries for 868 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 72.3 rushing yards per game. The snap split heavily favors him at 38.5% with touch compared to Corum’s workload. Sean McVay continues to lean on him as the workhorse, particularly in key moments.

Here’s what his recent production looks like:

The Rams are 8-point favorites against Arizona, which implies a run-heavy game script in the second half. Williams is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season, and he’s improved significantly from last year’s 3.9 YPC. Arizona allows 112.58 rushing yards per game, making this a favorable matchup for a physical back who gets consistent touches.

Williams has surpassed 68.5 rushing yards in four of his last five appearances, averaging 79.2 yards during this productive stretch. That’s comfortably above his projected 68.5 prop line and well above his 72.3 season average.

This is a divisional matchup where the Rams need to keep winning to stay in the hunt, and McVay trusts Williams in key moments. With the Rams likely playing with a lead, he should get plenty of opportunities to grind out yardage in the fourth quarter.

• Early Bet: Kyren Williams over 68.5 rushing yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Rome Odunze Receiving Yards

I’m fading the rookie here. Odunze has gone under his receiving yards prop in 12 of his last 17 games, and he’s been practically invisible lately. Through 12 games, he’s caught 44 passes for 661 yards and six touchdowns, but those numbers are heavily inflated by early-season production.

Since the Bears’ bye in Week 5, Odunze has caught just 24 passes on 55 targets for 365 yards. Check out his game-by-game results from Week 6 onward:

He hasn’t topped 35 yards since Week 9, and in that stretch, he’s gone under this number in five of eight games. The connection with Caleb Williams just isn’t there right now, especially with DJ Moore and Cole Kmet commanding targets. Williams is completing just 47.2% of his passes, and Odunze’s 48.9% catch rate doesn’t help matters.

Green Bay’s pass defense allows the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers over the last four weeks at 16.6 points per game. When these teams met in Week 1, the Packers held Odunze to just six catches for 37 yards. With the Bears’ offense sputtering and Odunze averaging only 7.5 targets per game, another quiet outing at Lambeau Field looks likely.

The projected 35.5 line feels too high given his recent production. In a tough divisional road game, it’s hard to picture a breakout game. All the trends point to the under, and Green Bay’s secondary should keep him contained once again.

• Early Bet: Rome Odunze under 35.5 receiving yards

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK

Offer

T&Cs

Get Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (Available in the US), Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), Call 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-981-0023 (PR). 21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. See BetMGM.com for Terms. First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Bonus bets are non-withdrawable. In partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. This promotional offer is not available in DC, MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: SBD1500

CODE: SBD1500

SIGNUP BONUS

GET $1,500
BACK

BET NOW