Early NFL Props to Target for Week 16 – Jared Goff, De’Von Achane & More

• Week 16 brings explosive matchups where volume meets vulnerable defenses
• Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and De’Von Achane headline my top NFL player props for Week 16
• Check out the early Week 16 NFL player prop breakdowns with matchup analysis and key trends

We’re coming off a perfect 3-0 sweep last week where every single pick cashed with ease. Stafford, Cook, and JSN all delivered exactly what we expected. Now we turn our attention to Week 16, where I’ve found three more spots I love in the NFL player props market.

Two of my plays come from the same team, which might raise eyebrows. But when a quarterback goes over his yardage total, his top receiver usually does too. I’m stacking Goff with St. Brown in what should be a shootout at Ford Field.

NFL Week 16 Player Props to Target

Odds as of December 17th. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on NFL betting apps this week.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jared Goff Passing Yards

Goff gets a primetime home matchup against Pittsburgh, and this passing yards prop offers massive value. Through 14 games, the 30-year-old has thrown for 3,672 yards with 29 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He’s been on an absolute tear, and the matchup couldn’t be better.

The Steelers are giving up 260.6 passing yards per game, ranking 29th in the league. They just allowed Tua to throw for 222 yards last week, and their secondary has been getting carved up all season. Pittsburgh has allowed nine different receivers to top 100 yards in a single game. Their cornerbacks grade out below average, ranking just 46.9 percentile.

The Lions quarterback’s recent numbers:

The veteran is averaging 300.4 yards per game over his last three contests. That crushes both his season average of 262.3 and this 262.5-yard line. Detroit’s signal-caller is completing 69.3% of his throws and hasn’t thrown an interception in those three games.

The bounce-back angle matters too. Dan Campbell and the Lions are 23-9 against the spread after losses. In those bounce-back games, Goff averages over 303 yards. Detroit just lost to the Rams and needs this win desperately for playoff positioning.

Playing at Ford Field in the dome eliminates weather concerns. The game total sits at 49.5 points, which means Vegas expects offense. Goff should see 35-plus attempts, and at his current efficiency against this weak secondary, there’s a clear path to 280-plus yards.

• Early Bet: Jared Goff over 262.5 passing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Receiving Yards

St. Brown just went off against the Rams with 13 catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets. That wasn’t a fluke. Through 14 games, Detroit’s top receiver has hauled in 94 receptions for 1,140 yards and 11 touchdowns. The former USC star is Goff’s safety valve and the first option on almost every critical down.

The Steelers rank 26th against wide receivers, allowing 21.3 fantasy points per game to the position. They’ve surrendered 2,244 receiving yards to wideouts this season at 7.71 yards per target. Pittsburgh plays zone coverage that gets picked apart by route technicians, and ARSB is one of the best slot receivers in football.

His recent production shows the consistency:

Over his last five games, St. Brown has caught 30 passes for 447 yards and three touchdowns. That’s 89.4 yards per game, hovering right around this 92.5-yard receiving yards prop line. He’s topped 90 yards in three of those five games.

The volume is there. St. Brown commands a 31.4% target share in Detroit’s offense and averages over nine targets per game. His 69.6% catch rate shows how reliable the fourth-year pro is. The ankle injury from Thanksgiving hasn’t slowed him down. ARSB has caught 19 passes for 256 yards in the two games since.

When Detroit needs a play in this must-win primetime spot, Goff is going to ARSB. The NFL odds have this line at 92.5, but his recent average and the matchup both point to him going over.

• Early Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown over 92.5 receiving yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: De’Von Achane Rushing Yards

Achane gets the best possible matchup a running back could ask for this week. Through 14 games, Miami’s explosive back has rushed for 1,186 yards on 205 carries with seven touchdowns. That’s 84.7 yards per game with an elite 5.8 yards per carry, but his recent stretch is even better.

The Bengals are allowing 25.8 fantasy points per game to running backs, dead last in the entire NFL. They’re giving up 129.2 rushing yards per game and a league-worst 5.38 yards per carry. Cincinnati has allowed 1,809 rushing yards through 14 games. When backs get volume against this defense, they pile up yardage.

The second-year back’s recent game log:

Over his last five games, Achane has carried the ball 84 times for 580 yards. That’s 116 yards per game, way above both his season average and this 81.5-yard rushing yards prop. He’s topped 100 yards in three of those five games, including a 174-yard explosion against Buffalo.

Miami’s offense runs through the speedster when healthy. The 22-year-old is 100% after dealing with a rib injury, and looked fine last week against Pittsburgh’s solid run defense. Miami’s lead back still managed 60 yards on just 12 carries even in a negative game script where the Dolphins were playing from behind.

This matchup is favorable. You’ve got an elite running back (5.8 YPC) who’s been hot (116 YPG over his last five) going against the worst run defense in football. Miami should feed Achane 18-22 touches, and at his current efficiency, there’s a good shot at clearing 100 yards.

• Early Bet: De’Von Achane over 81.5 rushing yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 21-23

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