Early NFL Props to Target for Week 2 – Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe Burrow & More

• Week 2 brings prime player prop value with teams adjusting after opening week struggles
• Short rest for Chicago and overreactions to Week 1 create betting edges across multiple matchups
• Check out our top three NFL player props offering the best Week 2 value

Week 1’s over, and the overreactions are in full swing. While casual bettors panic over ugly box scores and chase last week’s winners, we try to find value in the overcorrections. After breaking down matchups, rest advantages and statistical outliers, I’ve identified three plays where the market’s got it wrong.

We’ve got an elite Lions running back up against a tired Bears defense and a pass-happy Bengals quarterback ready to bounce back against the league’s weakest pass defense. You’ll want to get on these lines for Jahmyr Gibbs, Joe Burrow and more, as soon as they open.

Here are the NFL player props I’m targeting for Week 2.

NFL Week 2 Player Props to Target

Odds as of September 2025 at top-rated NFL betting apps.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards

Chicago’s defense is walking into Ford Field on fumes. After blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to Minnesota on Monday night, they get just six days between games while Detroit enjoys a full week of prep. That’s the kind of situational edge we are looking for in early NFL props.

The Bears allowed 4.6 yards per carry to the Vikings in Week 1, and that was at home with proper rest. Their defense “disappeared in the fourth quarter,” surrendering 21 unanswered points after dominating for three quarters. Now they’re traveling on short rest against a Lions offense desperate to prove Week 1 was a fluke.

Yes, Gibbs managed just 19 yards on nine carries against Green Bay. But 14 of those yards came on a single attempt, showing he can still break chunks when the blocking improves. Detroit’s interior line featured three newcomers in Week 1 – Graham Glasgow at center, rookie Tate Ratledge, and second-year Christian Mahogany at guard.

Chemistry improves dramatically from Week 1 to Week 2, especially for offensive lines. Meanwhile, Chicago committed 12 penalties for 127 yards against Minnesota. That kind of undisciplined play leads to longer drives and more rushing attempts for Gibbs.

Despite the ugly box score, Gibbs averaged 2.31 yards before contact per attempt in 2024, ranking third behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. The talent’s still there. Against a gassed Bears defense that can’t close games, this sets up perfectly for a bounce-back performance.

• Early Bet: Jahmyr Gibbs over 64.5 rushing yards (odds tbd)

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Passing Yards

Burrow’s 113 passing yards against Cleveland had everyone panicking. Here’s what they missed: the Bengals ran just 49 total plays and held the ball for only 24:11. That’s not on the quarterback; it’s just a bad game script.

Now he gets Jacksonville, which allowed the most passing yards in the NFL last season with 4,605. Dead last. The Jaguars surrendered 257.4 passing yards per game, making opposing quarterbacks look like All-Pros on a weekly basis.

Myles Garrett recorded four tackles for loss and two sacks in Week 1. Even Burrow admitted, “It’s tough to find anybody better than that guy.” Jacksonville’s pass rush doesn’t belong in the same conversation. According to PFF, the Jaguars finished 2024 as the ninth-worst graded team rushing the QB.

Ja’Marr Chase caught just two passes for 26 yards against Cleveland. You think the NFL’s highest-paid receiver signed that extension to catch two balls per game? With Tee Higgins also locked up, Cincinnati’s weapons are too good to stay quiet.

Those 113 yards were Burrow’s lowest in a full game since the 2023 opener, also against Cleveland. There’s clearly something about that Browns defense, but Jacksonville presents the exact opposite challenge. With the game total near 50, both teams figure to air it out early and often.

• Early Bet: Joe Burrow over 275.5 passing yards (odds tbd)

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Tucker Kraft Receiving Yards

Kraft’s gone over his receiving yards in five of his last six games against winning teams with top-third defenses, averaging 40.2 yards in those spots. That’s 7.7 yards above Thursday’s line of 32.5. When a player shows that kind of consistency in tough matchups, you pay attention.

My model projects Kraft for 42.5 receiving yards, which provides a nice cushion over the posted line. The third-year tight end finished 2024 with 50 catches for 707 yards, leading all qualified tight ends with 9.6 yards after catch. Those aren’t fluky numbers.

Washington allowed just 157 passing yards in Week 1, but context matters. They faced the Giants’ struggling offense, not Green Bay’s explosive attack. The Commanders show vulnerability to tight ends with an 84.2 percentile rank against linebackers, setting up perfectly for Kraft’s underneath routes.

In Week 1, Kraft led all Packers in routes run and passing down snaps. His four targets tied for second-most on the team despite Green Bay jumping out to a 17-3 halftime lead and coasting. When they needed to throw, Kraft was involved.

Matt LaFleur spent the entire offseason raving about Kraft, and the tight end covered this line in 69% of games last season, where he played 82% of snaps. With Luke Musgrave limited to one target and four yards in Week 1, Kraft’s locked in as the primary pass-catching tight end. Thursday night’s short week favors established connections, and Jordan Love knows where to find his tight end.

• Early Bet: Tucker Kraft over 32.5 receiving yards (-115)

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 1-2