Early NFL Props to Target for Week 3 – Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers & More

• Early NFL Week 3 player props offer great betting value with key injuries and divisional matchups creating edges
• Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Kyle Pitts headline our top NFL player prop bets for Week 3
• Check out our best early NFL Week 3 player props with analysis, odds and betting picks

NFL Week 3 player props present major value as the betting market adjusts to Week 2 results. Instead of chasing last week’s winners, we’re finding edges in Thursday Night Football, divisional games and injury reports that haven’t been fully priced into the odds.

Our early Week 3 NFL player prop picks target specific matchups where the betting lines don’t reflect reality. From Josh Allen’s rushing yards against Miami to Aaron Rodgers facing New England’s depleted secondary, these player prop bets offer strong early value.

Here are three NFL props where the odds haven’t caught up to the on-field situations.

NFL Week 3 Player Props to Target

Odds as of September 2025 at top-rated NFL betting apps.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Josh Allen Rushing Yards

Josh Allen owns the Dolphins on the ground. His career average of 46.2 rushing yards per game across 14 matchups speaks volumes. His biggest games came against Miami too, with a career-high 135 rushing yards in 2018 and 95 yards the next time they played.

Recent history backs up this early prop pick. Allen’s posted 77 yards in 2022, 67 yards in 2024, and 56 yards in 2019 against this defense. Over his last six games versus Miami, he’s averaging 36.2 rushing yards. And that’s before considering how bad their defense looks right now.

Miami’s run defense is getting destroyed early in 2025. They’re allowing 139 rushing yards per game, ranking 25th in the NFL. They’ve already surrendered three rushing touchdowns through two games. Both Daniel Jones and Drake Maye have gone off on the ground against them.

Allen’s already racked up 89 rushing yards in two games—30 against Baltimore, 59 versus the Jets, including a 40-yard burst. Buffalo’s called 20 designed runs for him, and he’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry. The breakaway speed is still there.

Buffalo’s a 12.5-point favorite, which sets up the perfect game script. When the Bills get ahead, Allen’s legs become the clock-killer. His 12-2 record against the Dolphins shows how these games typically go – Buffalo controls, Allen runs, Miami can’t keep pace.

• Early Bet: Josh Allen over 26.5 rushing yards (-114 at FD)

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards

New England’s secondary is a mess. All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez is still out with a hamstring injury, and without him, the whole unit falls apart. He was second-team All-Pro last year with 59 tackles, 11 pass breakups, and two picks.

The results have been ugly. Patriots allowed 362 passing yards to Geno Smith in Week 1, then got burned by Tyreek Hill for 109 yards on six catches in Week 2. Carlton Davis III and Alex Austin started on the boundaries but couldn’t handle the speed.

Rodgers looks right at home in Pittsburgh, averaging 223.5 passing yards through two games. His opener was vintage, tossing 244 yards and four touchdowns on 22-of-30 passing against the Jets. He’s at 63.5% completions, 447 yards, five TDs, and a 91.2 rating so far.

The matchup problems are everywhere. Patriots’ linebacker coverage has allowed a 151.4 QB rating, which is the worst unit in their defense. They’re starting Marcus Jones in nickel packages and Charles Woods in the slot. Neither belongs as a featured defender against Pittsburgh’s weapons.

DK Metcalf had four catches for 83 yards in the opener, and his size creates mismatches. Robert Woods and Calvin Austin provide different looks the Patriots can’t match. New England managed just one sack against Miami’s weak offensive line. That means clean pockets for Rodgers, and we know what happens when he has time to throw.

• Early Bet: Aaron Rodgers over 212.5 passing yards -110)

NFL Player Prop Pick: Kyle Pitts Receiving Yards

The connection between Kyle Pitts and Michael Penix Jr. has been money through two games. Pitts has grabbed 11 catches on 13 targets for 96 yards, posting an 85% catch rate. He leads the team with a 19% target share despite Atlanta throwing just 21 passes in Week 2.

Carolina’s linebacker group is the weak link Pitts can exploit. The Panthers allowed Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange to grab 59 yards on just four catches in Week 1. Arizona’s Trey McBride followed with 52 of his 61 yards against zone coverage in Week 2, working the same areas where Pitts operates.

Carolina’s linebacker depth chart shows serious problems. They ranked sixth-worst against tight ends last season and look worse now. They don’t have the personnel to cover athletic tight ends, especially a 6’6″ target like Pitts who can win over the middle.

Atlanta enters as 5.5-point road favorites, which should mean controlling the game. The Falcons are averaging 21 points with a balanced attack that keeps drives moving. Carolina sits at 0-2 and will need to throw to keep up, creating more possessions for Atlanta’s offense.

Pitts is averaging 48 yards per game, well above most lines you’ll find. He ranks ninth among tight ends in fantasy through two weeks with 20.6 points. Penix looks his way on third downs and in the red zone. Five targets despite just 21 passes shows the trust level. Against this soft Panthers defense, the over is a strong play.

• Early Bet: Kyle Pitts over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 3-2 (excludes Joe Burrow injury-void bet)

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