Early NFL Props to Target for Week 6 – Josh Jacobs, Baker Mayfield and More

• Week 6 NFL props target vulnerable defenses with Josh Jacobs facing the league’s worst run defense
• Josh Jacobs, Puka Nacua and Baker Mayfield headline our top NFL player prop bets for Week 6
• Check out our best early NFL Week 6 player props with analysis, odds and betting picks

The defensive weaknesses are glaring after five weeks, and some teams are practically gift-wrapping yardage to opposing skill positions. When Cincinnati ranks dead last against the run or San Francisco’s defense gets torched for nearly 291 passing yards per game, the NFL props market usually catches up. But not always quick enough.

Our early Week 6 NFL player props zero in on three matchups where struggling defenses meet players primed to exploit major holes. From the NFL’s most generous run defense to a pass coverage unit hemorrhaging big plays, these NFL player prop bets offer value before the lines catch up.

Here are three NFL props where the matchups meet opportunity.

NFL Week 6 Player Props to Target

Odds as of October 7th, 2025, at top-rated NFL betting apps.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards

Cincinnati’s run defense is broken. The Bengals rank dead last against running backs, allowing 27.2 fantasy points per game and a whopping 613 rushing yards through five games. They’re giving up 4.5 yards per carry to backs, and opponents have scored eight rushing touchdowns against them.

Jacobs is coming off a bye week fresh and healthy. He’s earned 266 rushing yards and four touchdowns through four games, averaging 20+ touches in three of four contests. His 86.1% yards-after-contact rate shows he’s getting the tough yards, and Green Bay’s clearly built their offense around feeding him the rock.

The matchup couldn’t be better. Cincinnati has been gashed consistently on the ground all season, allowing Jordan Mason and JK Dobbins (among others). The Bengals’ 51.7 coverage rating (per PFF) for their linebackers creates massive running lanes when they drop back to help against Jordan Love’s passing attack.

The Packers are massive 14.5-point road favorites, implying a game script that favors heavy rushing attempts late. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed at least 100 rushing yards in four of five games this season, and they’ve given up multiple rushing touchdowns in three straight contests.

Jacobs has converted 37.5% of his inside-the-5 carries into touchdowns this season. Against a defense that’s been completely unable to stop anyone on the ground, he should see 20+ carries and plenty of red zone opportunities. The positive run rate of 80% shows he’s consistently moving the chains.

• Early Bet: Josh Jacobs over 77.5 rushing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: Puka Nacua Receiving Yards

Baltimore’s secondary is in shambles with cornerback Marlon Humphrey (calf) and safety Kyle Hamilton (groin) out. The Ravens are giving up 795 receiving yards to wideouts through five games, and their coverage has been consistently awful.

Nacua leads the NFL with 588 receiving yards and isn’t slowing down. He’s commanding a massive target share in the Rams’ pass-heavy offense, averaging 12.4 targets per game with an elite 83.9% catch rate. His connection with Matthew Stafford has been money, especially on intermediate routes where Baltimore’s coverage breaks down.

Baltimore has been picked apart by elite receivers such as Xavier Worthy and Amon-Ra St. Brown, allowing big chunks through the air consistently. Their cornerback unit has struggled, with players like Jaire Alexander (31 PFF grade) getting picked on.

Nacua has proven he can beat any coverage type, leading the NFL in receptions and yards against both zone and man coverage. I project Nacua’s route-running ability and separation skills will create consistent openings throughout Thursday’s game.

The Rams are 7.5-point road favorites with an implied team total of 25.5. Nacua has gone over 100 receiving yards in four of his five games this season, and he’s averaging 117.6 yards per contest. Against this Ravens secondary, he should feast.

• Early Bet: Puka Nacua 100+ receiving yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Baker Mayfield Passing Yards

I’m all over Baker Mayfield’s passing yards total against San Francisco. The 49ers’ pass defense has been struggling, allowing nearly 400 yards to Matt Stafford and the Rams last time out. Mayfield has been playing out of his mind with four fourth-quarter comebacks through five games, and this matchup has shootout potential.

Mayfield just put up 379 passing yards on 29-of-33 passing in Week 5 against Seattle, completing 87.9% of his throws. Those aren’t fluky numbers either. Mayfield is averaging 256.6 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns against just one interception.

The 49ers’ banged-up defense is struggling to generate pressure in the wake of Nick Bosa’s season-ending injury. Meanwhile, on offense, San Francisco is starting Mac Jones at quarterback with Brock Purdy sidelined. While Jones has gone 3-0 as a starter, the 49ers offense doesn’t control games the way it does with Purdy under center.

Tampa is missing running back Bucky Irving to a foot injury, which means more passing volume for Mayfield. Even without Mike Evans dealing with a hamstring issue, the Bucs have weapons in Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and rookie Emeka Egbuka, who’s been a revelation with over 400 receiving yards through five games.

I’m projecting Mayfield for 275-290 passing yards against a pass defense trending the wrong way. The 233.5 projected line is too low for a quarterback averaging 256.6 yards per game who just torched a better Seattle defense for 379.

• Early Bet: Baker Mayfield over 233.5 passing yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 7-7

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