Early NFL Props to Target for Week 9 – Kyler Murray, Derrick Henry & More

• Week 9 brings prime prop value with Kyler Murray returning to face a Dallas defense that’s been getting torched
• Kyler Murray, D’Andre Swift, and Derrick Henry headline my top NFL player props for Week 9
• Check out my early Week 9 NFL player prop breakdowns, with the best value plays and key injury angles

Last week was a tough one for our early NFL props, going1-2, but that’s the game. It’s time to shake it off and attack a Week 9 slate that’s loaded with opportunity. Four teams are sitting out this week, but that means more concentrated firepower on the games that matter.

The NFL props market is still missing some obvious defensive holes. Teams that looked solid in September are getting picked apart now, and I’ve found three spots where playmakers get appetizing matchups.

Here are the three NFL player props I’m targeting for Week 9, each one attacking a defense that can’t get a stop.

NFL Week 9 Player Props to Target

Projected odds as of October 28th, 2025. Sign up at our top recommended NFL betting apps to pounce on these props when they’re released.

NFL Player Prop Pick: Kyler Murray Passing Yards

Murray is coming back at the perfect time. The Cardinals’ quarterback missed two weeks with a mid-foot sprain, but now he gets the Cowboys defense that’s been getting shredded all year. Dallas is giving up 28.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, worst in the league.

This isn’t just bad, it’s historically awful. The Cowboys are giving up 258.6 passing yards per game and 31.3 points per contest, with both numbers ranking 31st in the league. They’ve allowed 30-plus points in five different games and given up over 40 points twice already.

Murray’s got something to prove here too. He’s an incredible 9-0 at AT&T Stadium in his career, absolutely owning this venue every time he plays there. The narrative writes itself: hometown kid returning from injury on Monday Night Football against a defense that can’t stop anyone.

Arizona’s offense has actually looked solid with backup Jacoby Brissett, who threw for 599 yards and four touchdowns in Murray’s absence. That’s not because Brissett is elite, but because the scheme simplified and the running game got established. Murray returns to an offense that’s found its identity with weapons like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.

Now here’s the concern: Murray hasn’t thrown for more than 220 yards in any of his five starts this season, averaging just 192.4 yards per game. His 6.0 yards per attempt ranks near the bottom of the league. But context matters here, as the Cardinals faced tough defenses early and Murray was playing through the foot issue that eventually sidelined him.

Dallas just gave up 44 points to Denver’s offense, which isn’t exactly explosive. The Broncos threw for 307 yards against this secondary, and the Cowboys’ linebacker corps has been particularly vulnerable with a 115.6 passer rating allowed.

Murray’s mobility, even if limited coming off injury, creates problems Dallas can’t solve. At 2-5, the Cardinals desperately need this game, and Murray should finally break that 220-yard barrier against this generous defense.

• Early Bet: Kyler Murray over 218.5 passing yards

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NFL Player Prop Pick: D’Andre Swift Rushing Yards

Swift struggled last week with just 45 rushing yards, but now he draws a Bengals defense that’s been getting gashed on the ground. Cincinnati is dead last against running backs, giving up 28.0 fantasy points per game. They just let Breece Hall run for 133 yards and two scores. That says it all.

The Bears’ running game has found its groove over the past month, even with last week’s hiccup. Swift’s still averaging 4.6 yards per carry for the season with 464 yards on 100 attempts. He posted back-to-back 100-yard games in Weeks 6 and 7 before the stumble, and looks ready to bounce back against this soft defense.

Chicago’s offensive line deserves major credit here. They’re allowing just 11 sacks all year, best in the league, and that pass protection translates directly to run blocking. The Bears added new left tackle Theo Benedet, who brings an aggressive run-blocking style, and the left side now features him alongside veteran Joe Thuney.

Cincinnati’s run defense is Swiss cheese. They’re allowing 117.0 rushing yards per game to running backs and have given up multiple rushing touchdowns in several games. The Bengals can’t stop anyone on the ground, and Swift should feast as the clear workhorse with 276 snaps compared to just 153 for Kyle Monangai.

The game script favors Swift getting plenty of touches too. Chicago’s a 1.5-point road favorite, meaning they expect to control this game. Swift is averaging 16.9 touches per game and got 20 touches in Week 7, showing the Bears trust him with heavy volume when they need to control the clock.

Swift’s also on a four-game touchdown streak with three rushing scores during that span. He’s clearly the goal-line back now, and Ben Johnson’s offensive system traditionally features robust rushing attacks. After last week’s disappointing 45 yards, look for a bounce-back game against this vulnerable Bengals defense.

• Early Bet: D’Andre Swift over 55.5 rushing yards

NFL Player Prop Pick: Derrick Henry Rushing Yards

King Henry gets Lamar Jackson back, and that makes Baltimore’s ground game absolutely lethal. The Ravens’ rushing attack was already dangerous with Tyler Huntley under center, but Jackson’s mobility creates an entirely different dynamic that Miami simply can’t handle.

Henry had a solid Week 8 against Chicago with 71 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries. Not his biggest yardage total, but he just passed Walter Payton for fifth all-time in rushing touchdowns with 112 career scores. The Dolphins allow 21.0 fantasy points per game to running backs, ranking third-worst in the NFL.

Miami’s run defense has been gashed repeatedly this season. They’re allowing 118.0 rushing yards per game to running backs, including a 200-yard game from Carolina’s Rico Dowdle back in Week 8. Even backup running backs have found success pounding the rock against this unit.

The Ravens are heavily favored by 7.5 points on the road, which means they should control this game from start to finish. Henry thrives in exactly these situations where Baltimore can lean on the ground game to salt away a victory. He’s averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season with 510 yards through seven games.

Thursday night games often favor the running game too. Teams tend to simplify their game plans on short rest, and Baltimore’s identity has always been built around physical football. Henry showed his explosiveness is still there with a 122-yard performance against the Rams in Week 6, including multiple gains over 10 yards.

The key here is Jackson’s return. When defenses have to respect Lamar’s legs, it opens up huge lanes for Henry. He’s averaging 16.3 touches per game and has dominated the backfield with 214 snaps to Justice Hill’s 169. Against Miami’s soft run defense, Henry is set up for a big night.

• Early Bet: Derrick Henry over 89.5 rushing yards

Brady’s Early NFL Props Record: 13-13

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