Early Texans vs Patriots Picks & Best Bets for AFC Divisional Round

• The Houston Texans have won 10 consecutive games
• New England is just 7-3 at home
• Our analysis offers the best picks for AFC Divisional Round showdown

The Houston Texans are in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs.

Who saw that coming after their 0-3 start? Or on Nov. 2, after the Texans lost to fall to 3-5?

Behind a healthy C.J. Stroud, the Texans have reeled off 10 consecutive victories — including delivering a 30-6 statement win in the Wild Card round at Pittsburgh.

Up next? A trip to New England, to face the No. 2 seeded Patriots and their MVP candidate, quarterback Drake Maye. Kickoff is set for 3 pm, ET (ABC/ESPN) from Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots breezed through the regular season, then struggled a bit to put away the Los Angeles Chargers 13-3 in the Wild Card round.

None of that matters now.

This preview examines the early betting landscape, analyzes key statistical mismatches, and identifies the most compelling value propositions for this AFC Divisional Round showdown.

Texans vs Patriots Picks: Betting Analysis & Predictions

The betting market’s faith in New England’s home-field advantage appears misplaced when examining the underlying metrics. (Not to mention the Patriots’ 7-3 record at home this season, including the playoffs.)

Key Statistical Comparison

2025 regular-season statistics.

New England was a statistical juggernaut in the regular season, but the Patriots also benefitted from playing a softer schedule.

The Wild Card numbers painted a different picture. Houston pummeled Pittsburgh 30-3, gaining 408 yards in the process. New England slipped past the Los Angeles Chargers 16-3, limited to 381 yards and failing to score a touchdown in on its three red zone trips.

The key question is: Which do you believe?

The second-half Texans, who have won 10 consecutive games and are second in the NFL with a +17 turnover margin? Or the New England team that blitzed through the regular season and secured the No. 2 seed in the AFC?

Primary Pick: Texans Moneyline +142 (DraftKings)

The market’s 62.96% implied probability for New England victory overvalues home-field advantage while underestimating Houston’s systematic advantages. The Texans’ recent performance reflects sustained excellence, not fluky performances. Getting plus-money on a team with superior offensive efficiency, better situational football execution, and momentum represents exceptional value.

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Total Points: Over 41 (-110) (FanDuel)

Weather shouldn’t be a factor, allowing both offenses to operate at full capacity. Our analysis suggests New England will bounce back from the Wild Card showing and Houston will keep performing well enough for this over to cash comfortably.

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Public Betting Trends: Market Sentiment Analysis

The NFL public betting public‘s allegiance to New England creates contrarian opportunities across multiple markets, particularly given Houston’s superior winning streak.

Current public money distribution shows:

• Moneyline: Sharp money shows 63.61% backing New England Patriots (public money favors Houston)
• Point Spread: 57.07% supporting New England -3
• Game Total: Sharp money shows 61.23% favoring Over 41 (public money favors Under)

The heavy public support for New England, despite Houston’s 10-game winning streak, suggests recreational bettors are overweighting home-field advantage and brand recognition. Our Texans moneyline recommendation directly contradicts the 63.61% sharp money on New England, aligning with public sentiment and creating classic contrarian value.

However, our Over 41 selection aligns with public sentiment.

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Odds

Odds as of January 13, 2026, from consensus sportsbooks.

The Patriots’ -170 moneyline designation as home favorites reflects traditional betting markers rather than current form analysis. New England’s 3-point spread advantage appears modest given their offensive struggles, while the 41-point total seems conservative considering Houston’s scoring prowess.

The normalized probabilities reveal:

• New England Patriots: 60.4% implied win probability
• Houston Texans: 39.6% implied win probability

Texans vs Patriots Injury Report

As of January 13, 2026, both teams report clean injury sheets with all key contributors expected to be available.

QB Battle: C.J. Stroud vs Drake Maye

Houston’s offensive coordinator has maximized Stroud’s pocket presence and decision-making ability, creating one of the league’s most balanced attacks. The Texans’ ground-and-pound rushing approach complements Stroud’s efficient passing.

Maye is an NFL MVP candidate for a reason. He wasn’t as sharp in his playoff debut against the Chargers, but the Patriots typically go as he goes. His ability to contribute in the running game (66 yards rushing vs. the Chargers) is key to the Patriots sustaining drives.

The quarterback matchup favors Maye, but Stroud has has been on a tear, too.