Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Props & Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

• The Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football
• Tampa Bay has allowed a league-worst 701 receiving yards to running backs
• Keep reading for my favorite Falcons vs Buccaneers player props and best bets on TNF

We’ve got an NFC South grudge match tonight on Thursday Night Football as the Atlanta Falcons (4-9, 2-5 away) visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6, 3-3 home). In a week full of incredible games, this isn’t the most appealing matchup on the board, but it is an island game, which means a ton of money will be wagered on it.

I’m choosing to focus on the player props market tonight, targeting some of the biggest names playing like Bijan Robinson, Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving.

The first table below lists the main Falcons vs Buccaneers player props available in the TNF odds, plus my favorite O/U to target. The second table features the anytime touchdown props.

ATL Falcons vs TB Buccaneers Player Props

My Falcons vs Buccaneers player props card starts with over 37.5 receiving yards for Robinson. Atlanta’s star back if the most dangerous Falcon on the ground and through the air with Drake London out, and there’s a few reasons to expect a voluminous role for him in the passing game tonight.

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Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Prop Bet #1: Bijan Robinson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

Let’s start with the matchup. Tampa Bay bleeds receiving production to opposing running backs. They’ve allowed a league-worst 701 receiving yards to that position, while Robinson has six games with at least six targets this season.

TB Buccaneers Pass Defense vs RB

The Bucs are a stout run defense, which should encourage more passing, and Kirk Cousins has few reliable options to choose from. Speaking of Cousins, his arm strength has completely disappeared and he’s throwing short on nearly every attempt. He’s averaged fewer than 6 yards per throw in half of his starts, after posting a career worse 5.5 ypa last season.

No one will benefit more from short passes than Robinson, who the Falcons need to get going to have any chance of keeping this game close.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Prop Bet #2: Baker Mayfield Under 225.5 Passing Yards

As Mayfield’s play declines, so does the Bucs hopes in the Super Bowl odds. Since Week 7, Mayfield ranks last among qualified quarterbacks in EPA + completion percentage over expectation, and second worst in success rate per drop back.

There is a good chance Baker is actually hurt, but fortunately for him, he shouldn’t have to throw the ball much tonight. The Falcons defense ranks 12th in EPA/pass, but 26th in EPA/rush.

Even with Mike Evans and Jaylen McMillan returning, we should expect a rush heavy approach from Tampa Bay. Bucky Irving looks healthy enough to shoulder a big workload, and as sizeable favorites they should be able to lean on the run to put this game away.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Anytime Touchdown Odds

Shifting over to the Falcons vs Buccaneers anytime touchdown props, where Irving is my favorite selection at +128 odds.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Player Prop Bet #3: Bucky Irving Anytime TD

In two games back from injury, Irving has handled 19 and 17 touches. He’s found the end zone in each contest, giving him 12 touchdown in only 23 games. His chief competition for carries is Rachaad White, a guy who has repeatedly failed in short yardage and goal-to-go situations to the point where the team no longer trusts him.

Irving is just as likely to break a long play for a touchdown as he is to pound it in from in close, and given the matchup against a terrible rush defense, he’s an easy bet at this price.