Final Patriots vs Broncos Picks, Closing Odds & Weather Forecast for AFC Championship
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
Kickoff in the AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots (16-3, 8-0 away, 12-6 ATS including postseason) and Denver Broncos (15-3, 9-1 home, 7-11 ATS including postseason) is just two hours away. Empower Field at Mile High hosts a 3:00 pm ET (1:00 pm MT) start time with CBS and Paramount+ carrying the broadcast.
The opening Patriots vs Broncos betting lines shifted considerably over the course of the week, driven by injuries, sharp money, and weather concerns. The first section below sets out the closing Patriots vs Broncos odds. The second section sets out the latest weather report for Mile High. The third and final section lays out my final Patriots/Broncos picks for the AFC Championship Game.
Jump to: ODDS || WEATHER || PICKS
Patriots vs Broncos Closing Odds
After opening at -4.5, New England was but up to -5.5 early in the week but the line has been steadily moving towards the shorthanded home team since then. Despite Jarrett Stidham having to replace injured QB1 Bo Nix, the Broncos are just just 3.5-point underdogs at most sportsbooks.
The best New England ATS price is currently -3.5 (-115) at bet365, while the best Denver ATS price is +4.5 (-125) at DraftKings.
On the moneyline, BetMGM has the best odds on a Bronco victory (+185); FanDuel has the best odds on a Patriot win (-215).
The game total has been bet way up from the opening line of 40.5. The best number that over bettors can get now is 43.0 (-110) at bet365. The best under price is currently 43.5 (-118) at DraftKings.
Odds commentary as of 12:59 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds move before kickoff.
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Patriots/Broncos Weather Forecast for AFC Title Game
The weather conditions are going to be anything but friendly to QBs are receivers. Not only will the temperature be way below freezing, the skies will provide light snow throughout the game with non-zero winds.
If the Broncos weren’t already planning a ground-heavy game plan, the conditions should have Sean Payton scouring his playbook for creative run plays.
Final New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Picks
- Under 43.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
The value on the under has been increasing by the day. It has now climbed a full field goal since the odds opened last Sunday at 40.5. With Jarrett Stidham making both his first career playoff start and first start of the season, Denver’s best bet is to employ a run-heavy game script, hoping to churn clock and lean on their elite defense to keep the score close.
With the Patriots/Broncos weather forecast far less than ideal (well-below freezing temperatures with light snow and moderate winds), the chances of a defensive slugfest are all the higher.
I would also take a good hard look at the first-half under. The best number is under 21.5 (-110), also at DraftKings.
Looking for more Patriots/Broncos bets to tail? Check out:
- John Hyslop’s +998 Patriots/Broncos same-game parlay
- Sascha Paruk’s pair of plus-money Patriots vs Broncos touchdown-scorer picks
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
