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Despite Free Agency Rumors, Odds Still Favor Brady Back in New England in 2020

Tom Brady looking up at the crowd
Will QB Tom Brady leave the New England Patriots in free agency? Photo by @ComplexSports (twitter).
  • Rumors are swirling that Tom Brady expects to leave the New England Patriots in free agency
  • If he does leave New England, which franchise has the best shot at signing the 43-year-old quarterback?
  • Online sportsbooks have provided two different Brady-related props; see a breakdown and prediction for each

Will Tom Brady really leave the New England Patriots in free agency?

On Thursday, ESPN’s Jeff Darlington reported he’d be “stunned” if Brady returned to New England. The news set off a firestorm of speculation over the 42-year-old’s future. Sportsbooks posted two Brady-related prop bets on the board and here’s a breakdown and prediction for each.

Odds Tom Brady Is on Patriots Roster Week 1 of 2020

Outcome Odds
Yes -150
No +110

Odds as of Feb. 28th, 2020.

This is the easier of the two props – a true will he or won’t he?  For those who have been watching football this century, it’s nearly impossible to picture Brady in a different uniform, but these newest reports seem to give credence to the possibility he could move on.

As difficult as it is to imagine Brady in a different uniform, is it really harder than picturing Michael Jordan with the Washington Wizards or Joe Montana with the Kansas City Chiefs?

Which side of this argument you land on comes down to essentially one factor – do you believe Brady wants to leave or is this all just a negotiating ploy? Even if he had every intention of staying, he’d float rumors about being interested in leaving to milk one last sizable contract out of the Patriots.

For my money, however, I think where there’s smoke there’s fire. Brady is a free agent for the first time for a reason and his house is for sale for a reason. I think he moves on and takes a hefty two-year contract with a different team.

PICK: No (+110)

Odds on Tom Brady’s Team in Week 1 of 2020

Team Odds
Indianapolis Colts +200
Las Vegas Raiders +200
Los Angeles Chargers +300
Tennessee Titans +900
Dallas Cowboys +1200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1200
Miami Dolphins +1400
Chicago Bears +1600
Cleveland Browns +2000
Green Bay Packers +2500
San Francisco 49ers +3300

Odds as of Feb. 28th, 2020. 

One major thing has changed since the last time we covered Brady’s 2020 team in early February: the oddsmakers seem to believe everyone has a better shot of landing Brady now than they did three weeks ago.

The Indianapolis Colts and Las Vegas Raiders are the favorites and there’s one glaring difference between the two. The Raiders have Derek Carr and the Colts have a wide open spot for an established quarterback.

If you’re choosing between these two teams, I’d definitely lean towards the Colts. They have a competent offensive line and weapons on the outside, like T.Y. Hilton, whom Brady would love to throw to.

Could Chargers Sign Brady & Draft Herbert?

My pick, however, is the Los Angeles Chargers. They are set to begin play at SoFi Stadium which they will share with the Rams. This highlights the need for a franchise face that can help sell seat licenses and give the Chargers a home-field advantage they haven’t had in quite a while.

The team is reportedly enamored with Oregon QB Justin Herbert, yet could still sign Brady even if they select Herbert in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. We’ve seen young quarterbacks excel after sitting for a season under an established veteran, most recently Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City.

I think Brady ends up taking his act to Los Angeles to replace Philip Rivers, opening up the Colts job for Rivers, himself. Bet on Brady to switch cities in the first prop and, if you’re feeling frisky, pick the Chargers as his ultimate destination.

PICK: Los Angeles Chargers (+300)

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