- Week 6 kicks off with Giants and Patriots on Thursday Night Football
- Our TNF props were 0-3 last week for -4 units (-2.9 units for the season)
- Daniel Jones is in for a long night against the best defense in football
After sweeping our Thursday Night Football props in Week 4, we came crashing back down to earth in Week 5 losing all four units we wagered.
Thankfully, this week’s TNF tilt features the reigning champs and the walking wounded Giants, giving us a golden opportunity to fade rookie Daniel Jones against the NFL’s number one defense.
Prop #1: Daniel Jones Over/Under 218.5 Passing Yards
*All odds taken 10/9/19
The Patriots have allowed just 802 passing yards all season, and haven’t surrendered more than 153 yards to a starter since Week 1. Now they get to face rookie Daniel Jones, in the first primetime game of his career, without his three most dangerous offensive weapons.
— New York Giants (@Giants) October 9, 2019
New England leads the NFL in sacks, QB hits and interceptions, and Jones’s completion percentage is just over 50% when facing pressure. He’s thrown for only 402 yards in his last two starts combined and with 18-20 MPH winds in the forecast, it’s setting up to be a long night for the rookie in Foxborough.
Pick: Jones Under 218.5 passing yards (-129)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.78 units
Prop #2: Sony Michel Over/Under 73.5 Rushing Yards
Michel is coming off his most productive game of the season (91 rush yards) after playing a season high 49% of the Patriots offensive snaps. Now he gets to face a Giants defense on a short week, that was just torched for 211 rushing yards by Dalvin Cook and the Vikings.
SONY MICHEL’S IN FOR THE 14 YARD TOUCHDOWN!!!!! pic.twitter.com/F3dp9hxayE
— PatriotsNation™ (@PatsNationTM) October 6, 2019
Game script will no doubt be in his favor for the entire night and with heavy winds in the forecast, New England is likely to lean on their run game even more than usual. Michel’s outlook is boosted by Rex Burkehead’s questionable status, and even if Burkhead is a go, he logged only 18% of the team’s offensive snaps in the last game he played.
Michel is a virtual lock to dominate the Patriots backfield and should hang a big number on this overmatched Giants D.
Pick: Michel Over 73.5 rushing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #3: Julian Edelman Over/Under 6 Receptions
Philip Dorsett has already been ruled out and Josh Gordon is listed as questionable, paving the way for yet another monster Julian Edelman game. Brady’s most trusted receiver has caught at least seven balls in two of his last three outings, and should expose the Giants poor slot coverage.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) October 6, 2019
New York’s secondary has allowed 22-of-29 slot targets to be caught in 2019, for 317 yards and three touchdowns. Edelman leads New England in targets, catches and yards, and his low average depth of target will be leaned on by Brady if the weather is even half as nasty as it’s currently projected.
Pick: Edelman Over 6 receptions (-103)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.72 units