How to Bet Jarrett Stidham Props Based on Historic QB Trends

• Denver quarterback Jarrett Stidham is set to make his NFL playoff starting debut
• We explore how inexperienced QBs have fared in their playoff debut
• Our analysis analyzes Jarrett Stidham prop bets and recommends the best bet

It’s not often that an NFL quarterback makes his season debut as a starter in the AFC Championship.

That’s the case for Jarrett Stidham, however. Forced into duty after Bo Nix suffered a broken ankle in the AFC Divisional Round, Stidham will make his first start of the season — and just fifth of his career — Sunday in the AFC title game vs. New England. Kickoff is set for 3 pm, ET (CBS) at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

What’s a reasonable expectation for a quarterback who has thrown fewer than 200 career passes making his playoff debut?

Let’s dive in while exploring Stidham’s prop bets for the AFC Championship Game.

Jarrett Stidham Props & Odds

The passing yards line at 198.5 represents a significant adjustment from the opening number of 185.5, indicating increased confidence in Stidham’s ability to move the ball through the air. This upward movement suggests sharp bettors and oddsmakers alike recognize his potential to exploit a Patriots defense that surrendered 193 passing yards in their last playoff contest. The completions line at 19.5 with heavy juice on the over (-127) reflects expectations for a dink-and-dunk approach designed to minimize risk while maintaining offensive rhythm.

Perhaps most telling is the passing touchdowns prop, where the -221 odds on over 0.5 indicate overwhelming confidence that Stidham will find the end zone at least once. This represents a shift from the opening line of -210, suggesting consistent backing for his scoring potential. The interceptions prop at -190 for the over creates an interesting contrarian angle, given his three-year tenure studying Patriots defensive coordinator’s tendencies firsthand.

Top Jarrett Stidham Player Props to Bet

Based on comprehensive analysis of matchup dynamics, weather conditions, and historical performance indicators, these represent the strongest betting opportunities for Stidham’s AFC Championship performance vs. the New England Patriots.

Best Bet #1: Jarrett Stidham Over 198.5 Passing Yards (-115, FanDuel)

Analysis & Justification: The elevation in Stidham’s passing yards line from 185.5 to 198.5 reflects legitimate market confidence in his ability to generate aerial production. His familiarity with Patriots defensive concepts provides strategic advantages that backup quarterbacks rarely possess in championship scenarios. The Broncos’ offensive system emphasizes high-percentage throws that minimize interception risk while maintaining consistent yardage accumulation.

Supporting Trends: Backup quarterbacks facing their former teams have exceeded 200 passing yards in 7 of 10 instances over the past five seasons when given full starting responsibilities.

Risk Assessment: The primary concern involves potential game script scenarios where Denver establishes early rushing dominance, limiting passing attempts. However, Patriots offensive efficiency suggests a competitive game flow that necessitates consistent passing output from both quarterbacks.

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Best Bet #2: Jarrett Stidham Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-221, BetMGM)

Analysis & Justification: The overwhelming market confidence reflected in -221 odds creates value despite the heavy juice. Stidham’s red zone familiarity with Patriots defensive tendencies provides significant advantages in scoring situations.

Supporting Trends: Quarterbacks making their first playoff start have thrown at least one touchdown pass in 14 of 16 instances since 2018. Stidham’s mobility adds rushing touchdown potential, creating multiple pathways to clearing this threshold. The Patriots’ defense has allowed touchdown passes to backup quarterbacks in 4 of 6 regular season encounters over the past two years.

Correlation Factor: This prop correlates strongly with the passing yards over, as touchdown drives typically require substantial yardage accumulation. The combination creates a compelling same-game parlay foundation with mathematical edge.

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Best Bet #3: Jarrett Stidham Under 0.5 Interceptions (-175, Caesars)

Analysis & Justification: Despite his intimate knowledge of Patriots defensive schemes potentially creating turnover opportunities, Stidham’s conservative approach and Payton’s game plan design prioritize ball security over aggressive downfield attempts. The -175 odds provide value.

Supporting Trends: Backup quarterbacks in conference championship games have avoided interceptions in 8 of 12 instances since 2010, as conservative game plans emphasize short, high-percentage throws. Stidham’s familiarity with Patriots personnel actually reduces interception likelihood, as he can anticipate coverage rotations and avoid throwing into defensive strengths.

Game Script Consideration: If Denver establishes early offensive rhythm, Stidham’s confidence will build throughout the game, reducing the panic throws that typically generate backup quarterback turnovers. The Broncos’ emphasis on establishing the running game early should provide manageable down-and-distance situations that minimize interception risk.

Historical Data for QBs with Fewer Than 200 Pass Attempts in NFL Playoff Debut

Stidham isn’t the first inexperienced quarterback thrust into a starting role in an NFL playoff game.

But it is a rare occurrence, and the results are mixed.

Since 1950, 35 QBs have made their NFL playoff debut with fewer than 200 career pass attempts. They’ve gone 14-21 (40.0% win rate).

Key Stats:

• Avg: 12.9/26.4, 172.9 yds, 1.11 TD, 1.23 INT
• Comp%: 48.7%
• Y/A: 6.55
• TD%: 4.22% | INT%: 4.65%

These nine quarterbacks threw at least two touchdown passes in their playoff debut.

1. Brock Purdy (2022) – SF: 18/30, 332 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 131.5 rating (W) – 124 career att
2. Lamar Jackson (2018) – BAL: 14/29, 194 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 78.8 rating (L) – 158 career att
3. Colin Kaepernick (2012) – SF: 17/31, 263 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 91.2 rating (W) – 192 career att
4. Kelly Holcomb (2002) – CLE: 26/43, 429 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 107.6 rating (L) – 101 career att
5. Aaron Brooks (2000) – NO: 16/29, 266 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 111.5 rating (W) – 172 career att
6. Frank Reich (1992) – BUF: 21/34, 289 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 115.9 rating (W) – 126 career att
7. Jeff Hostetler (1990) – NYG: 10/17, 112 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.8 rating (W) – 80 career att
8. Cody Carlson (1990) – HOU: 16/33, 165 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 70.9 rating (L) – 135 career att
9. Vince Ferragamo (1979) – LAR: 9/21, 210 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, 79.5 rating (W) – 93 career att

Record: 6-3 (66.7%)

QBs with 5 or Fewer Career Starts in Playoff Debut

Stidham has made four previous NFL starts — all during the 2023 season. He will become the 22nd NFL starting quarterback to make his playoff debut despite starting five or fewer games. Those previous 21 quarterbacks went 9-12 in their playoff debut.

Only five of those quarterbacks threw two or more touchdown passes in their debut. Those quarterbacks went 4-1.

1. Brock Purdy (2022, 5 starts) – SF: 18/30, 332 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, 131.5 rating (W)
2. Kelly Holcomb (2002, 3 starts) – CLE: 26/43, 429 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, 107.6 rating (L)
3. Aaron Brooks (2000, 5 starts) – NO: 16/29, 266 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, 111.5 rating (W)
4. Jeff Hostetler (1990, 4 starts) – NYG: 10/17, 112 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 117.8 rating (W)
5. Vince Ferragamo (1979, 5 starts) – LAR: 9/21, 210 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, 79.5 rating (W)