Is Aaron Rodgers Retiring? Prediction Markets on the Move

• Could Aaron Rodgers decided to hang up the cleats?
• Prediction markets are showing the odds whether the future HOF’er will retire
• What are the chances A-Rod retires and what about the possibility of a Steelers return?

Another NFL season has come and gone, and that means the annual will-he-or-won’t he discussion about whether future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers will return or decide to walk away from the game. In his 21-year career, Rodgers has been a four-time MVP and four-time first team All Pro. While his play last campaign with the Steelers wasn’t peak A-Rod, he’s still been effective, leading Pittsburgh to a 10-7 AFC North division title.

The graph below shows the current odds for whether Rodgers will retire or if he’ll suit up for a 22nd season at prediction site Kalshi.

Prediction Markets

Aaron Rodgers Retirement Odds

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Kalshi

Before the start of the 2026-27 regular season

32.0%

Predict

Odds in table from Kalshi at 12:30 pm ET, Feb 18th.

Should Rodgers return this season, and it be with Pittsburgh, they’d be well off the pace of contenders in the Super Bowl odds. Of course, there’s still a chance he decides to come back but not to play for the Steelers. On one hand, new Head Coach has familiarity with Rodgers after coaching him for 13 years and they won Super Bowl XLV together in Green Bay. However, there was clearly tension between the two, and bitterness over a 1-3 record in NFC Championship games.

Pittsburgh still has a clear need at quarterback, unless they are enamored with 2025 sixth round pick Will Howard. That would seem to be a massive leap for them to entrust the young QB, or a drafted one. It would make a lot of sense for Rodgers to return and pair him with a quarterback of the future on the roster.

Currently on Kalshi, A-Rod’s odds to retire are at 32%, so there’s a more than two thirds chance he returns for another year. It’d be very surprising if he were a factor in the NFL MVP odds battle at 42, but Matthew Stafford, a fellow greybeard, just won the most valuable player award playing at age 37.

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How The Prediction Market Has Changed For Aaron Rodgers

As of early September, Rodgers’ odds to hang them up at season’s end were as high as a whopping 90%. That number was still incredibly likely late October at 85%. Following Pittsburgh’s 30-6 defeat in the AFC Wild Card to Houston, it was still more likely than not Rodgers would be done at 67.2%.

However, the number for Rodgers to complete his career has dropped to 32% on Kalshi, suggesting there’s a strong possibility we’ll see him toss the pigskin again. Last year, he still put up pretty strong numbers, tossing 24 touchdowns versus seven interceptions, with a 65.7 completion percentage and passer rating of 94.8, his best since 2021.

With the familiarity and time potentially healing all wounds with coach Mike McCarthy, the best bet is Rodgers returns for a 22nd season in Pittsburgh. If he chooses to go elsewhere, there would be a market for him, since there’s definitely teams with worse QB situations around the NFL. He was in the upper half amongst quarterbacks in passing yards, TD passes and passer rating.

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