Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Best Early Picks to Target for AFC Wild Card Game

• The Buffalo Bills enter as slight road favorites against the AFC South champion Jaguars
• The Bills and Jaguars did not play each other in 2025
• Our analysis reveals what to look for in AFC Wild Card Game

Josh Allen has the Buffalo Bills in a familiar place: in the playoffs, for the seventh consecutive year. That’s the longest active streak in the NFL.

Jacksonville is making its second playoff appearance since drafting Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall in 2021.

Allen has made it to the AFC Championship Game twice, including last season. Both times, his Bills fell to Kansas City. That can’t happen again in 2026; the Chiefs didn’t make the playoffs.

New rivals stand in his way this year, beginning with the Jaguars, who won the AFC South crown for the first time since 2022 and just the third time since 2000.

Our detailed analysis shows you watch to watch for ahead of kick off at 1 pm, Sunday, January 11, 2026 (CBS) at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card Predictions and Best Bets

This AFC Wild Card matchup presents a fascinating betting puzzle where playoff urgency meets offensive firepower. With Buffalo installed as narrow road favorites, the market essentially views this as a pick’em game. The key to finding value lies in recognizing that Jacksonville’s remarkable late-season surge isn’t just statistical noise — it’s a complete organizational transformation under new leadership.

Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-112)

DraftKings is offering that line on Monday afternoon, January, 5. The situational angle strongly favors the home team in this spot. Jacksonville is making a playoff appearance after completing one of the season’s most dramatic turnarounds. The Jaguars’ youth-driven roster has found its identity at the perfect time, creating a dangerous combination of youth and hunger. The biggest X-factor favoring a Jaguars cover is field-goal kicker Cam Little. He hasn’t missed a field-goal attempt since October and his leg strength is legendary. He is 7-for-7 on 50+ yard field goal attempts during that span. In November, he set the NFL record by making a 68-yarder at Las Vegas. He closed the regular season with a 67-yard field goal. He owns the two longest field goals in NFL history.

Next Best Bet: Total Points — Over 51.5 (-112)

DraftKings again provides these odds (most other books have set it the O/U at 51.5, -110). The offensive matchup screams high-scoring affair under ideal weather conditions, with both quarterbacks possessing identical 1.5 passing touchdown props and proven red zone threats in their backfields. Little’s ability to add points on drives that reach midfield could contribute as well.

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Public Betting Trends and Sharp Money Analysis

The NFL betting public‘s approach reveals interesting philosophical divides between casual and professional bettors.

Money Distribution Breakdown:

• Moneyline Handle: Buffalo commands 64.93% of the money versus Jacksonville’s 35.07%
• Spread Action: Nearly even split with Buffalo (-1.5) attracting 51.45% compared to Jacksonville’s 48.55%
• Total Points: Strong consensus on offensive fireworks with 61.13% backing the Over 51.5

The contrast between heavy moneyline support for Buffalo (64.93%) and the virtually split spread action suggests recreational bettors believe in Allen’s playoff experience while sharper money recognizes the value in Jacksonville’s home-field cushion. Our contrarian stance on the Jaguars aligns with the tighter spread distribution rather than the lopsided moneyline confidence.

Team Situational Trends and Historical Context

Given this represents both teams’ playoff opener, traditional season-long trends don’t apply. However, several situational angles provide valuable insight:

Playoff Debut Dynamics:

• Home teams in their first playoff game in 2+ years have covered 68% of spreads when favored by less than 3 points since 2010
• Quarterbacks making their playoff debuts at home have exceeded their regular-season touchdown averages in 72% of games over the past decade

Josh Allen Playoff Patterns:

• Allen has thrown multiple touchdowns in 75% of his previous playoff appearances
• Road playoff favorites with totals above 50 points have gone Over in 65% of games since 2018

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Wild Card Odds

Odds as of January 3, 2026, from consensus sportsbooks.

The remarkably tight odds reflect a true playoff toss-up, with Buffalo’s slight road favorite status primarily based on Allen’s postseason experience rather than overwhelming talent disparity. After removing the vig, the normalized win probabilities suggest a razor-thin margin between Buffalo and Jacksonville — essentially a coin flip with massive postseason implications

Josh Allen vs Trevor Lawrence: Who Has The Edge?

The betting market treats Allen and Lawrence as virtual equals, with nearly identical passing expectations but different rushing profiles. Jaguars fans have wanted Lawrence to be more of a rushing threat, like Allen. In 2025, Lawrence set career-highs for rushing yards and rushing TDs. Here’s how they stack up:

Bottom line: This playoff collision features two organizations led by franchise quarterbacks entering their prime. The Jaguars’ remarkable turnaround under Liam Coen creates an intriguing contrast with Buffalo’s established playoff pedigree, setting up a fascinating test of experience versus momentum in a winner-take-all scenario.

The statistical projections suggest an evenly matched affair where home-field advantage and situational execution will determine the outcome, making Jacksonville’s 1.5-point cushion particularly valuable.