Jarrett Stidham Props, Projections & Best Bets for AFC Championship

• Jarrett Stidham will start the AFC Championship for the Broncos in place of the injured Bo Nix
• Stidham has attempted at least 32 passes in all four of his career starts
• See my favorite Jarrett Stidham props, plus projections and best bets for the AFC Championship

Can Jarrett Stidham be this year’s Nick Foles? Broncos fans sure hope so. The 29-year-old is being thrust into the AFC Championship spotlight Sunday against the Patriots, after Bo Nix broke his ankle. Make no mistake, Stidham isn’t afraid to chuck it, and his arm talent is the main reason why he was drafted out of Auburn.

I’m expecting plenty of passing volume for Stidham against New England for a variety of reasons, which makes betting overs on some of his props very enticing.

Below you’ll find my favorite Jarrett Stidham props listed in the NFL odds, plus projections and best bets for the AFC Championship.

Jarrett Stidham Props and Best Bets

My favorite Stidham prop is over 32.5 pass attempts, while I also see value on 2+ passing TD at +240 odds. Stidham’s presence also opens the door for a big RJ Harvey performance through the air, making him a bonus AFC Championship best bet to target.

AFC Championship Best Bet #1: Jarrett Stidham Over 32.5 Pass Attempts

Stidham has just four career starts on his NFL resume, but when he has played he’s impressed. Stidham has thrown for 270+ yards in two of four outings, attempting 34, 32, 34 and 36 passes in those outings.

Not only has he thrown a lot, but he’s been quite successful. He ranks 29th out of 80 qualified quarterbacks since 2022 in drop back success rate, and 42nd in EPA + completion percentage over expectation. For context, that’s ahead of Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, CJ Stroud, Bo Nix and Caleb Williams in the first category, and higher than virtually every other backup in the league right now in the second category.

So he has the talent to warrant heavy passing volume, but also the right coaching staff and matchup to accommodate. Sean Payton isn’t running the ball no matter who’s under center. Just look at last week. Against Buffalo’s bottom-three run defense, he gave his running backs 10 carries in a close game. That shouldn’t come as a surprise though, as Nix led the NFL in pass attempts.

Then there’s the Patriots defense. They are about as much of a pass funnel as there is. New England has eviscerated enemy rushing attacks all season, but can be vulnerable through the air. Their first two postseason opponents haven’t even tried to run on them, leading to 37 drop backs for Justin Herbert (only 31 pass attempts due to 6 sacks), and 47 pass attempts for Stroud.

AFC Championship Best Bet #2: Jarrett Stidham 2+ Passing TD

If I like Stidham to throw 33+ times, I have to like getting +240 odds on him to notch 2 TD. I don’t believe the drop off from Nix to Stidham is anywhere close to as big as most casual fans think, which explains why the AFC Championship total is on the rise per the Patriots vs Broncos line movement.

Denver is implied to score nearly three touchdowns, and I don’t think those are coming from their running backs. In fact, as we saw last week, they’re just as likely to come on gadget throws to offensive linemen.

Stidham only threw 2 or more touchdowns in one of his four starts, but he should find red zone success versus New England. The Pats are a bottom-five red zone defense, which may crater their prospects in the Super Bowl odds. They surrendered touchdowns on 95% of their goal-to-go drives against in the regular season, giving Denver fans reason to believe they can pull off the upset.

AFC Championship Best Bet #3: RJ Harvey Over 18.5 Receiving Yards

Two of Stidham’s four starts came as a member of the Broncos under Payton. In those two outings, he targeted a running back on 21 of 66 passes. That’s good news for Harvey, who will see the bulk of the pass catching volume out of the backfield even if J.K. Dobbins plays.

Jarrett Stidham Projections

New England was bottom-five in the NFL in receiving production allowed to running backs this season, while Harvey just caught 5 passes for 46 yards last week versus the Bills. Harvey has nine games this season with 20+ receiving yards so far, and should have plenty of opportunity to beat this line on Sunday.