- Week 15 kicks off with the Jets versus the Ravens on Thursday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Dec. 12)
- Our TNF props were 0-3 last week for -4.0 units (-5.95 units for the season)
- Baltimore won’t need to rely on Lamar Jackson in the run game
Week 14 was one to forget. First, Anthony Miller dropped a wide open target to miss hitting the over on his receiving yards prop. Then, Dak Prescott threw for 209 yards in the fourth quarter to miraculously hit the over on his passing yards prop. Finally, after rushing for over 70 yards in the first half, Ezekiel Elliott couldn’t muster a measly 15 yards on the ground in the second half to clear the over on his rushing yards prop. Add it all up, and it was an ugly -4 unit night.
Thankfully, there’s another Thursday Night Football game on the NFL schedule this week. On paper, this New York Jets versus Baltimore Ravens tilt is a huge mismatch, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of some soft prop lines.
Prop #1: Lamar Jackson Over/Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
All odds taken Dec. 11.
There’s nothing scarier than fading Lamar Jackson’s legs in 2019. The sophomore is just the second QB to ever eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in a season and is averaging almost 7 yards per carry. He’s already cleared 100 yards on the ground on four separate occasions this season, and he has more rushing yards than all but eight running backs.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 9, 2019
The problem is the Jets are a dumpster fire and there’s little chance they keep this game close. As a result, the Ravens won’t need to rely on Lamar’s rushing prowess and are much more likely to hand the ball off to their running backs.
Furthermore, Jackson is already nursing a quad injury and Baltimore would be smart to keep him out of harm’s way. Jackson has taken 38 more hits than any other quarterback in the league, and with the playoffs right around the corner, protecting their number one asset should be the Ravens priority.
Pick: Jackson Under 63.5 rushing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #2: Robby Anderson Over/Under 4 Receptions
Robby Anderson has completely balled out over the last three weeks but let’s consider the opposition. He’s torched the secondaries of the Raiders, Bengals and Dolphins, all of whom are bottom ten coverage units according to ProFootball Focus. Now he squares off against a Ravens secondary that allows just 219 passing yards per game.
Marcus Peters HOUSED his first pick as a Raven.
Russell Wilson’s first interception of the year.
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 20, 2019
Baltimore ranks seventh in PFF’s coverage metrics and Anderson is likely to matchup versus Marcus Peters on the majority of his routes. Peters is PFF’s fourth highest graded corner, and is allowing just 59.2% of the passes thrown his way to be completed.
Pick: Anderson Under 4 receptions (-129)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.55 units
Prop #3: Sam Darnold Over/Under 220.5 Passing Yards
Over their past five games, the Ravens have not allowed an opposing quarterback to exceed 199 passing yards. They’ve held Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo below the 200 yard threshold and last week limited Josh Allen to just 105 yards through the air.
STRIP SACK @man_dammn‼️
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 8, 2019
Now they face a New York team led by Sam Darnold, who admitted to seeing ghosts the last time he faced an elite defense. Darnold has been extremely inconsistent this season, registering a 43.1 QBR and failing to reach 220 passing yards in 30% of his outings, despite facing an extremely soft schedule. He’s PFF’s 33rd graded passer and has thrown for only 256 yards combined in two games versus top-10 graded secondaries this season.
Pick: Darnold Under 220.5 passing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Let's have fun and keep it civil.