New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Picks & Closing Odds for MNF

• The Miami Dolphins are 2.5-point home favorites vs the New York Jets on Monday Night Football
• Both teams have started the season 0-3
• Keep reading for my Jets vs Dolphins picks and predictions, plus closing odds

---

You can’t win the Super Bowl in the opening month of the NFL season, but you can certainly find yourself out of contention with a whole lot of football to go.

That’s the scenario facing both the winless New York Jets (0-3, 2-1-0 ATS) and Miami Dolphins (0-3, 1-2-0 ATS) when they square off on Monday Night Football. Miami is the betting favorite in the NFL odds.

Just one team in NFL history has every rebounded from an 0-4 start to make the playoffs (the 1992 San Diego Chargers), so one team will be staring into the abyss after tonight.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:15pm ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with ESPN carrying the broadcast.

NY Jets vs MIA Dolphins Closing Odds

The line has not fluctuated much, with the the majority of books holding the Jets as 2.5-point road underdogs, though you can find them as long as 3-point ‘dogs without much issue. DraftKings is the one of the few books also giving even-money on that +2.5-point line.

The moneyline has stayed pretty level as well, with Miami’s shortest odds sitting in the -150 range and the Jets’ best odds somewhere in the +130s.

The total hasn’t ventured more than a half-point above or below the 44.5 line, with FanDuel providing the best odds for the Over, and BetMGM among the books at the standard -110.

Odds as of 5:45 pm ET, Sept. 29. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on MNF.

Looking at the NFL public betting percentages, the largest wager is on the Miami moneyline, taking 75% of the bets, though only 40% of the money is headed that way, while 60% of the bets are banking on New York to win on the road.

The Under is the second largest, with 63% of the bets and 55% of the money, though a healthy 45% of the money is also taking the Over.

The closest wager is on the spread, where Miami is getting 55% of the bets and 51% of the money, while 45% of the bets are on the Jets (at a +3 point spread), with 49% of the money.

NYJ vs MIA Betting Trends

Among the trends to consider include the Dolphins dominating the Jets on their home field, winning their last nine home starts against Gang Green, going 7-2 against the spread in those games.

Overall, Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 matchups against New York.

The Dolphins have cashed the Over in seven straight home games.

The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three Monday games. New York is also 6-15-0 ATS in their past 21 games when the line is between +3 and -3. 

Consider the rest factor as well: the Jets are 1-11 ATS in games off more than six days rest since 2021.

Looking for more NYJ/MIA bets to tail? Check out:

• Jets vs Dolphins Player Props
• Best NYJ vs MIA Same-Game Parlay

Jets vs Dolphins Picks & Prediction

• Over 44.5 points (-102) at FanDuel

There might not be a worse MNF matchup on the slate for the rest of the season.

New York and Miami both rank inside the league’s bottom four in scoring, both allowing better than 31 points per game. That porous defense is inviting us to bang the Over, and I’ll take the bait on this one.

In a game that called to question their desire to play for coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins put together a legitimately solid performance in a 31-21 loss to the Bills, where their offense actually looked passable.

The route 😮‍💨 @cheetah pic.twitter.com/vr3TzhP1Gt

— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2025

My leap of faith here is they can carry that over, at home, against a Jets defense that is currently third in passing yards allowed, and giving up five total TD catches on the year.

They could also work to unlock the running game, as New York is giving up better than 130 yards per game on the season.

Justin Fields sure wasn’t ready for the Bills himself, putting together one of the worst games of the season before going down with a concussion in a 30-10 loss, but he’s getting a Dolphins defense that can’t stop the run.

Justin Fields' Week 9 performance was the highest-scoring @NFLFantasy week by a QB last season.

Did he carry you to a win in your matchup? pic.twitter.com/fSzJSL0sTD

— NFL (@NFL) June 28, 2023

Miami surrenders 145 yards per game, fourth-worst in the NFL, and that’s the one thing this offense can do at an impressive clip, ranking Top 10 in rush yards per game.

Using the run game allows Fields easier passing downs, and that should be enough to put up points.

The Over has cashed in five of the last seven meetings, with the teams cracking the 50-point plateau four times. With their respective seasons on the line, a shootout is in order Monday night.