Could it be One and Done for Jon Gruden in Oakland?
- Jon Gruden has begun his second stint as head coach of the Oakland Raiders
- Gruden is on the Raiders’ books for ten years at $100 million
- Is there any chance he only lasts one season as head coach of the Raiders?
One of the biggest stories in football this year is Jon Gruden’s return to the sideline. Gruden stuck gold when he left the Monday Night Football broadcast booth and signed a 10-year $100 million deal to become the new head coach of the Oakland Raiders.
Raiders are giving new head coach Jon Gruden a 10-year contract, the longest coaching deal in NFL history, sources tell ESPN. The deal is likely to be worth about $100 million.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 5, 2018
But apparently not everyone is so sure Gruden will live out his entire contract with the Raiders.
Sportsbooks have released odds on whether “Chucky” will be the head coach of the Raiders by Week 1 of the 2019 season. The fact that this is even something to bet on, considering the contract he just signed, is laughable.
| Prop | Odds |
|---|---|
| Will Jon Gruden still be head coach of Raiders by Week 1 2019 – YES | -2000 |
| Will Jon Gruden still be head coach of Raiders by Week 1 2019 – NO | +900 |
In 11 seasons as a head coach, Gruden has only had three sub-.500 seasons. His biggest accomplishment was when he won Super Bowl 37 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his first year with the team.
His passion and knowledge of the game cannot be denied, but this is also what has sparked this prop. Gruden is known to be tough on players and may not be willing to adapt to modern NFL offensive schemes.
Gruden possesses a .540 regular season winning percentage as a head coach
If Gruden can build upon his .540 winning percentage and get Derek Carr to reach his full potential, he will have nothing to worry about.
Jon Gruden Coaching Stats
| Year | Team | Record | Div Standing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | OAK | 8-8 | 3rd in AFC West |
| 1999 | OAK | 8-8 | 4th in AFC West |
| 2000 | OAK | 12-4 | 1st in AFC West |
| 2001 | OAK | 10-6 | 1st in AFC West |
| 2002 | TB | 12-4 | 1st in NFC South |
| 2003 | TB | 7-9 | 3rd in NFC South |
| 2004 | TB | 5-11 | 4th in NFC South |
| 2005 | TB | 11-5 | 1st in NFC South |
| 2006 | TB | 4-12 | 4th in NFC South |
| 2007 | TB | 9-7 | 1st in NFC South |
| 2008 | TB | 9-7 | 3rd in NFC South |
Could Missing the Playoffs Cost Gruden his Job?
Sportsbooks project the Oakland Raiders going 8-8 on the season. This seems reasonable when you take into account that over the last two seasons they are 18-14 with just one playoff game.
Everyone is curious to see what Gruden will do in his second stint with the team. This time he will benefit from having one of the best quarterbacks in the AFC in Derek Carr. Toss in weapons like Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, and Marshawn Lynch and this team has the potential to put up a lot of points.
| Team | 2018 Projected Wins | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Oakland Raiders | 8 | OVER -115 / UNDER -105 |
But there are still many question marks in Oakland. And in Year 1 of the Gruden experience, no one will be pulling the plug because of a 7-9 season.
Could Losing Khalil Mack Cost Gruden his Job?
Oakland’s most talented player, Khalil Mack, is still holding out for a new contract, and is expected to continue his holdout into the regular season. This does not look good on Gruden and the organization.
But this is a Reggie McKenzie (the Raiders’ GM) issue, not a Jon Gruden issue. So there is no way Mark Davis will fault the latter if they are forced to trade Mack.
It’s not going to win you a ton of money, but betting the YES on Gruden coaching the Raiders in Week 1 of the 2019 season is easy money.
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