Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds, Lines, Spread, Picks, and Predictions for Week 4 Sunday Night Football
By Chris Amberley in NFL Football
Published:
- Tampa Bay is a 1-point home favorite in the Chiefs vs Buccaneers odds on Sunday, October 2nd at 8:20 pm ET at Raymond James Stadium, in Tampa, Florida
- This is a rematch of Super Bowl 55, a game dominated by the Bucs 31-9
- Read below for the complete Chiefs vs Buccaneers odds, plus analysis and a betting prediction
It’s Chiefs vs Buccaneers, as Kansas City (2-1, 0-1 away) travels to Tampa Bay (2-1, 0-1 home) in a Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 4 that was supposed to be a potential Super Bowl preview.
After all, these two teams just played for the title two years ago. KC features arguably the most talented quarterback in football, while Tampa Bay is led by the greatest quarterback of all time.
However, through three weeks neither has looked like one of the elite teams in their conference. Both teams enter play off a loss, and neither squad has shown the consistent offensive potency that we’re used to seeing from them.
Oddsmakers were torn on who to peg for the chalk in this contest and ultimately decided on the hometown Bucs by a hair.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1 (-110) | -105 | O 46 (-110) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -1 (-110) | -115 | U 46 (-110) |
Odds as of October 1 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code.
Tampa Bay is a slim 1-point favorite in the Week 4 NFL odds, in a contest that features a total of 46. Money is absolutely pouring in Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and no one should be surprised if they wind up favored by game time. 77% of the spread bets and 79% of the ATS handle is backing KC as underdogs, a role they’ve flourished in with Mahomes under center – more on that later.
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Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, with NBC providing the broadcast and 85-degree temperatures in the forecast.
 Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis
The Chiefs’ offensive numbers look impressive at first glance but keep in mind, most of the production came in their season-opening destruction of the Cardinals. KC hung 44 points on Arizona that day, but have scored just 44 points total in their last two games combined.
They were held to 17 points in a dome versus the Colts last week, after committing two turnovers in Indy territory and producing only 315 yards of offense. The pass game is running through Travis Kelce, but Mahomes has yet to establish a significant rapport with anyone else. Offseason acquisition JuJu Smith-Schuster is averaging less than 60 yards per game and has yet to find the end zone.
Historically, Patrick Mahomes is 10-3 following a loss in his career 📊 pic.twitter.com/SYM1n0Vp0M
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 29, 2022
Mahomes has thrown for less than 265 yards in back-to-back games, and he’ll need to elevate his play for the Chiefs to emerge victorious. Tampa Bay is one of the best run defenses in football, and while their pass D is also elite, they’re more attackable through the air than on the ground.
A major issue for KC in the past versus the Bucs was dealing with Tampa’s pass rush. KC seems to have addressed that issue however, which should give Mahomes more time to throw than he’s had in previous meetings. The Chiefs have surrendered only two sacks and seven QB hits through three weeks.
Defensively, KC ranks ninth per DVOA, and should be able to keep a shorthanded and struggling Buccaneers offense in check.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis
Brady and the Bucs have scored three touchdowns total through three weeks. They have more turnovers than touchdowns so far. No, that is not a typo. Injuries have played a role, while Brady could certainly use his old friend Rob Gronkowski to threaten defenses over the middle.
Mike Evans will return from suspension this week, but Julio Jones and Chris Godwin are true game-time decisions. All three receivers were out last week, and Tampa Bay produced only 285 yards of offense in a loss against the Packers.
HC Todd Bowles says Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and Donovan Smith will all be game-time decisions on Sunday.
— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) September 30, 2022
The team elevated Cole Beasley from the practice squad this week which doesn’t bode well for the health of Jones and Godwin. Expect at least one of them to be out, and potentially both.
The only reason this team is 2-0 is because of their defense. Tampa Bay is yielding a league low 9 points per game, and grade out number one per DVOA on that side of the ball.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Pick
The injuries are going to hold Brady and Co. back, but an underrated element to watch out for is the Chiefs pass rush. Only San Francisco has generated pressure at a higher rate than KC this season, and everyone knows getting up in Brady’s grill is the key to slowing him down. Brady is completing just 46.7% of his throws under duress this season, while averaging 3.3 yards per attempt.
Gotta be better, we'll be ready to go Sunday. @Buccaneers pic.twitter.com/5bKBFhol9S
— Tom Brady (@TomBrady) September 26, 2022
Mahomes meanwhile, is 6-2-1 ATS as an underdog, winning outright five times. KC has a major advantage in the coaching department, and after watching the Bucs offense look completely inept against Green Bay last week, I’m not convinced Evans’ return will be enough to turn their fortunes around.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-105), 1 unit
2022 NFL Season Picks Record: 2-0, +1.84 units
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
