Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Picks, Prediction & Updated Betting Lines (Week 11)

• The Chiefs look to chase down the Broncos
• Denver is on a seven-game win streak
• Read below for my Chiefs vs Broncos picks and predictions

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The Kansas City Chiefs (5-4, 1-3 on the road) and Denver Broncos (8-2, 5-0 at home) renew one of the NFL’s fiercest rivalries in Week 11. Empower Field at Mile High plays host to a 4:25 pm ET AFC West kickoff on a CBS broadcast.

I have locked in my four favorite Chiefs vs Broncos picks, below. Continue reading for three key players to watch for (and bet on), as well as the final Chiefs/Broncos betting lines for this game with massive playoff implications.

KC Chiefs vs DEN Broncos Picks & Predictions

• Chiefs -3.5 (-120) at FanDuel

Not only is Patrick Mahomes a whopping 13-1 versus Denver in his career, but 10 of those wins would have also covered a theoretical 3.5-point spread. Denver has improved in recent matchups, winning the last time Mahomes played at Mile High, but this is a key spot for the Chiefs to get back into the playoff hunt.

If the playoffs started today, the Chiefs would be out of the playoffs. While they have some likely wins coming later in the schedule, winning this game would be critical in keeping KC’s division hopes alive. Not only are the Chiefs 2.5 games behind the Broncos, they are 1.5 games behind the Chargers (and lost the first matchup).

Despite being 8-2, the Broncos are 4-6 ATS. The Chiefs have a 5-4 record ATS with a 4-3 mark as favorites. In the AFC West this season, the Chiefs are 1-1 ATS while the Broncos are 0-2 ATS.

• Patrick Mahomes Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-110) at Fanatics

In nine games this season, Mahomes has cashed this over five times. His rushing was a non-factor against Buffalo, but Mahomes had at least four carries in the previous eight games.

Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 513 total yards on scrambles this season.

229 pass yds on scrambles (2nd among QB)
284 rush yds on scrambles (2nd among QB)

Per @NextGenStats

— Tony Holzman-Escareno (@FrontOfficeNFL) November 14, 2025

Mahomes has only hit this line three times in 14 games against Denver, but this is the best Broncos team Mahomes has faced. Mahomes tends to run more in critical spots, picking up first downs with his legs. Also, with a total as low as 4.5, even one or two kneel downs would have a massive boost.

• RJ Harvey Anytime Touchdown (+150) at Underdog

RJ Harvey only has two of Denver’s 10 rushing touchdowns, but he is now the unquestioned starter with J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve. Harvey is also a weapon in the receiving game, catching four touchdowns. Harvey has a touchdown in four games this season, with a three-touchdown game versus the Cowboys on the ledger.

With a full starter’s workload, I am excited for a Harvey breakout game. In games in which Harvey has eight touchdowns, he is two-for-two in scoring touchdowns. He could flirt with his career-high of 18 touches in this divisional matchup.

I’m so curious to see what a heavy RJ Harvey game is going to look like for the Broncos offense. pic.twitter.com/rwkSOV2JJs

— Strez (@Its_Strez) November 13, 2025

The Chiefs have allowed five touchdowns to running backs this season. Four of these came on the ground, and Justice Hill caught a touchdown in Week 4.

• Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Catches (-137) at ESPN

Rashee Rice has hit this number in two of three games this season. In 27 games (including playoffs), Rice has seven or more catches 10 times. Even in the game he did not catch seven passes, he was still the most-targeted Chief.

Denver has an excellent defense, but the Chiefs will look to get Rice involved as extension of the run game. This includes touch passes, screens, and other short completions that the Broncos would focus on reducing yards after the catch as opposed to reducing the completion percentage.

Rice’s game against the Raiders is the perfect example; he had 10 targets for seven catches and just 42 yards (but two touchdowns). Kansas City’s priority was putting the ball in Rice’s hands as a de facto running back.

Chiefs vs Broncos Betting Lines

The Chiefs are road favorites with the total set between 44.5 and 45 in the current NFL odds. Over bettors can take over 44.5 at DraftKings for -105 odds. Under bettors can get under 45 on BetMGM for -110 odds.

Kansas City bettors can get the Chiefs on the spread at -3.5 on FanDuel for -120 odds or -210 on the moneyline at BetRivers. For Denver bettors, take the Broncos at +4.5 at Underdog (-113 odds) or +190 odds at DraftKings on the moneyline.

KC vs DEN: Last Five Matchups

For a matchup that has been played since 1960, the Chiefs hold a 73-57 lifetime advantage over the Broncos. Patrick Mahomes is a comical 13-1 versus Denver.

In their last matchup, Denver shut out Kansas City’s backups en route to a 38-0 beatdown. Bo Nix threw four touchdowns and tallied 368 total yards. On the Kansas City side, two Carsons (Wentz and Steele) led the Chiefs in passing yards and rushing yards.