Kansas City vs New Orleans Betting Trends – Who’s the Public Betting? See Bet Counts and Money Percentages
- Kansas City visits New Orleans in Week 15 (Sunday Dec. 20, 4:25 pm EST) as a 3-point favorite
- 91% of the tickets and 92% of the money is on the Chiefs to cover the spread
- See below for a look at the spread, moneyline and total trends for this highly anticipated contest
One of the most highly anticipated games of the season kicks off on Sunday (Dec. 20, 4:25 pm EST) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) put their eight-game winning streak on the line against the New Orleans Saints (10-3), who will welcome back Drew Brees after a month-long absence.
The reigning champs are currently a 3-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 52.5. The Chiefs have actually performed quite poorly against the spread recently, failing to cover in five straight, but that hasn’t deterred bettors this week one bit. KC is getting an overwhelming amount of support in the spread trends and moneyline trends, while money is piling in on the Over in the total trends.
Chiefs vs Saints Spread Betting Trends
| Team | Spread Odds | Bet % | Money % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3.0 (-104) | 91% | 92% |
| New Orleans Saints | +3.0 (-118) | 9% | 8% |
All Odds taken Dec. 18th.
91% of the spread bets and 92% of the spread money is on the Chiefs, which is a bit surprising given Brees’ return. Yes, Michael Thomas will miss this contest, but the Saints had covered in five straight before a loss in Week 14 to Philadelphia, and beat the number in each of Brees’ previous two starts before his rib injury.
Drew Brees will be the Saints’ starting QB Sunday vs. the Chiefs, a source told @AdamSchefter.
Mahomes vs. Brees 🍿 pic.twitter.com/VsbWaB2I1C
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 18, 2020
New Orleans covered in its only game as an underdog this season, while KC is just 2-4 ATS as a road favorite in 2020.
Perhaps bettors simply view Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs as a sure thing regardless of the opponent, but that’s a very dangerous way to think. Online sportsbooks and casinos don’t make money hand over fist by being this overexposed on one side without a good reason. Usually, when the amount of tickets and money wagered is this one-sided, it’s a good idea to be on the side that the house needs.
Chiefs vs Saints Moneyline Betting Trends
| Team | Moneyline Odds | Bet % | Money % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -164 | 71% | 90% |
| New Orleans Saints | +138 | 29% | 10% |
As far as the moneyline action goes, it’s a little less lopsided but still heavily favors KC. New Orleans’ backers likely feel there’s just as good a chance that the Saints beat the Chiefs outright, as there is they lose by less than 3, so why not take the plus odds on the moneyline.
Since the start of 2018, no team has a better record than the Chiefs and Saints, who have each gone 36-9 and meet on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/CgO6mc30Io
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 15, 2020
I would wager that not a ton of bettors are racing to bet Kansas City on the moneyline as -164 chalk, and that the majority of the tickets and cash wagered on the moneyline are tied up in parlays. There’s nothing square bettors love more than parlaying multiple moneyline favorites together in hopes of a big score, and its hard to imagine the defending Super Bowl champions not being heavily targeted on those tickets this week.
Chiefs vs Saints Total Betting Trends
| Total Odds | Bet % | Money % |
|---|---|---|
| Over 52.5 (-104) | 93% | 97% |
| Under 52.5 (-118) | 7% | 3% |
To no one’s surprise, the most lopsided betting trend for this matchup of top-seven scoring offenses is the Over. 93% of the bets and 97% of the money wagered is banking on the game exceeding 52.5 points, something that has happened just once in the Chiefs’ last three outings.
Best odds to make the Super Bowl:
1. Chiefs – 48%
2. Saints – 27%
3. Packers – 25%
4. Steelers – 14% pic.twitter.com/9wdrIGWcFG— PFF (@PFF) December 18, 2020
The Under is 7-6 in KC contests this season, but just 5-8 in New Orleans’ games. If we extrapolate a little further, the Over has hit in seven of Brees’ nine starts, and in three of the Chiefs’ past four road games.
Kansas City ranks first in total yards and second in points per game, while the Saints rank 14th and seventh in those two categories. New Orleans features the league’s number two ranked defense by DVOA, compared to the Chiefs who rank 18th, but let’s face it, both of these offenses are capable of putting up monster numbers regardless of their opponent.
Kansas City has surrendered 623 receiving yards to running backs this season.
Michael Thomas is out.
Drew Brees is back.
Huge week coming for Alvin Kamara. I'd hate to be facing him in the fantasy playoffs.
— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) December 18, 2020
Even the most casual of bettor knows this which is why people are shovelling money on the Over. Despite the incredibly one-sided action, the total has risen just a single point since it opened earlier this week at 51.5. Something to consider for potential Over backers is that Kansas City has faced four playoff calibre teams in 2020, and only once has the game exceeded the total.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
