Lions vs Chiefs Picks, Closing Odds & Betting Splits for SNF

• The red-hot Detroit Lions visit the limping Kansas City Chiefs in a SNF blockbuster in Week 6
• The Lions (4-1 ATS) are underdogs for the third time this season
• See my favorite Lions vs Chiefs picks and the closing odds for SNF

The NFL’s Week 6 Sunday slate saved the best for last as the Detroit Lions (4-1, 4-1 ATS, 3-2 O/U) meet the Kansas City Chiefs (2-3, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs clawed back to .500 after an 0-2 start only to blow a late lead in Week 5 against the Jaguars, halting all momentum. Now Patrick Mahomes and company have to deal with the hottest team in the league, a Detroit squad that’s not just 4-0 SU in the last four weeks, but also 4-0 ATS.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:20 pm CT/8:20 pm ET on NBC. The weather forecast calls for a clear evening with temperatures around 65°F and a light 8 mph wind, relatively ideal conditions for the offenses.

Below, I have set out my best Lions vs Chiefs picks, followed by the updated SNF odds, and DET/KC betting splits.

Jump to: DET vs KC Picks || DET vs KC Odds || DET vs KC Betting Splits

Detroit Lions vs Kansas City Chiefs Picks & Prediction

• Detroit Lions moneyline (+126) at FanDuel
• Under 52.5 (-115) at FanDuel
• Jahmyr Gibbs Over 64.5 rushing yards (-115) at BetMGM

The Detroit Lions have the #4 offense and #2 defense in the league, according to PFF. There is hardly an area of the field where they don’t have legitimate All-Pro calibre talent, and Dan Campbell has become a savant at getting the most out of his personnel. The Campbell-era Lions have the occasional let down – see the postseason, in particular – but are, by basically all metrics, the far superior team. Kansas City ranks 12th overall at PFF (sitting 12th on both offense and defense).

Don’t trust PFF? The Lions more than double-up the Chiefs in DVOA – 45.5% (1st) vs 21.0% (6th) – and crush KC in EPA – 0.569 (1st) vs 0.397 (17th). Aidan Hutchinson is the outright favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds.

KC’s homefield edge at Arrowhead is real and longstanding. But there comes a point where the talent disparity trumps location. This isn’t by any means a fade of Patrick Mahomes, who’s still operating at the peak of his powers. But it is a slight at basically the rest of the Chiefs roster, which just isn’t on par with the Chiefs teams of years past.

The battle in the trenches will be decisive. If the Lions’ offensive line can neutralize Chris Jones and control the line of scrimmage, they can lean on their dominant rushing attack to wear down the Chiefs’ defense and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

From a betting perspective, the trends in favor of KC are compelling. The Chiefs are 15-2 straight up in their last 17 games following a loss. But I can’t see the Kansas City defense doing enough against Detroit’s endless supply of game-breaking talent to walk away with a win tonight.

The total is where the real value may lie. Despite two potent offenses, the under has cashed in all eight of the Chiefs’ last home games following a loss. With the line inflated to 52.5, that trend is too powerful to ignore.

Looking for more DET vs KC picks to tail? Check out

• Michael Harrison’s Lions vs Chiefs Player Props & Touchdown Bets
• John Hyslop’s Lions vs Chiefs Same-Game Parlay

DET Lions vs KC Chiefs Closing Odds

The latest SNF odds have the Chiefs at -140 (bet365) or slightly shorter. The Lions are as long as +126 on the moneyline. The Lions/Chiefs point spread sits at KC -2.5 across the board, which is up a point from the opening Week 6 odds. After removing the vigorish, the implied win probabilities are 57.4% for the Chiefs and 42.6% for the Lions.

The game total still shows a one-point range; over bettors can get 51.5 (-110) at bet365, while under bettors can get 52.5 (-115) at FanDuel.

DET vs KC Odds Movement

As mentioned, the spread opened with the Chiefs as just 1.5-point favorites before moving a full point to -2.5. Similarly, the KC moneyline moved from -120 to -140 or shorter, while the Lions opened at even-money and are now as long as +126.

The most dramatic shift has been on the total, which opened at 48.5 and has skyrocketed as high as 52.5. This four-point jump is a direct result of the public’s fascination with Detroit’s high-powered offense, which has scored 34+ points in four straight games, and the expectation that Patrick Mahomes will be forced into a shootout.

Chiefs vs Lions Public-Betting Splits

The public is hammering the Lions both ATS (85% of handle) and on the moneyline (74% of handle).

The public also loves the over, putting 64% of handle on the over so far despite just 52% of the total wagers going to the over.

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