Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers Odds, Picks and Predictions for MNF

• The Steelers are 3-point favorites versus the Dolphins on Monday Night Football
• Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 when the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff
• See the Dolphins vs Steelers odds, picks and predictions for Monday Night Football, below

Week 15 on the NFL calendar closes out with the Miami Dolphins (6-7, 2-4 away) taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6, 4-3 home). This game has major ramifications for both team in the NFL playoff bracket, as Miami needs a win to keep its slim postseason hopes alive, while Pittsburgh can move one step closer to a division title with a victory.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Steelers in the latest MNF odds, but I’m avoiding the spread market all together to focus on the total. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET/5:15pm PT from Acrisure Stadium, in Pittsburgh, PA, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Below, you’ll find the latest Dolphins vs Steelers odds, plus my picks and predictions for Monday Night Football.

MIA Dolphins vs PIT Steelers Odds

Before making any Monday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. Pittsburgh is currently favored by 3 points, but the total varies depending on where you wager. FanDuel is currently offering a 41.5-point over/under, but if you’re interested in betting the under visit Bet365 where the total currently sits at 42.5.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, four of the Steelers last six contests have fallen short of the total, while 66.7% of their home games have gone under the number since the start of 2021.

Odds as of Dec. 14. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on MNF.

Dolphins vs Steelers Injury Report

There are two headlines that dominate the rest heading into this game. Let’s start with the injury situation. The Dolphins got a good piece of news earlier in the week as star running back Devon Achane is healthy enough to play. Achane left last week’s win over the Jets with a rib issue, but is off the injury report all together.

Achane’s presence is key, because it can help cover up Tua Tagovailoa’s cold weather struggles – more on that later. Miami’s RB is PFF’s number one graded runner, and leads the league in 10+ and 15+ yard rushes.

The news isn’t so good for Pittsburgh. Star pass rusher T.J. Watt underwent surgery for a collapsed lung earlier this week, and is unlikely to play. Tagovailoa struggles mightily under pressure, so the absence of Watt and his team-leading 8 sacks will force other Steelers like Alex Highsmith to step up along the defensive line.

Dolphins vs Steelers Picks and Predictions

The other major headline for this matchup is Tua’s cold weather failures. He’s 0-5 in contests with a temperature below 40 degrees, and the game time forecast is calling for 19 degree temperatures with 12-18 mph winds.

With Tagovailoa under center, the Dolphins average less than 17 points per outing in sub-40 degree temperatures. He’s only completing 55.6% of his throws in those conditions, which is roughly a 15% lower completion percentage than all of his other starts. His passer rating is 30 points higher when the temperature is above 45 degrees, while his yards per attempt a full 2 yards higher.

That suggests points will be tough to come by on Monday, and it will be nearly impossible for Miami to get much going offensively if Tua is under duress. Tagovailoa’s passing grade drops 29 points when the heat is on, while his 5.7% turnover worthy play percentage under pressure is one of the worst marks in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa Pressure Stats

On the other side of the ball, Miami’s defense has quietly been playing excellent recently, and should be able to stymie a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense. The Dolphins have yielded 17 points or less in four straight games, ranking ninth in EPA/play allowed during that stretch, and 10th in EPA/dropback allowed.

Make no mistake, the Steelers offense is not the reason they have a 70% chance to make the playoffs. Pittsburgh ranks 16th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate, well below the top Super Bowl 60 odds contenders.

Rodgers meanwhile, ranks 19th in EPA/drop back and 26th in success rate, below names like Geno Smith, Justin Fields and Spencer Rattler, a trio of quarterbacks who’ve all lost their starting jobs.

This game profiles as an under bet and I expect the total to dip before kickoff. Act now, in case it falls below the key number of 41.