Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Player Props, Odds for TNF

• The Bills are massive 12-point home favorites over the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football
• Winners of 11 straight home games, Buffalo has also dominated this series, winning six straight and 13 of the last 14 against Miami
• Below, see my Dolphins vs Bills picks and predictions, plus the latest Bills/Dolphins odds and player props

A one-sided AFC East rivalry takes center stage on Thursday Night Football as the undefeated Buffalo Bills (2-0, 1-0 home, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U) host the winless Miami Dolphins (0-2, 0-1 away, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 O/U) in Orchard Park.

Kickoff for TNF is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET. Amazon Prime Video will carry the broadcast.

Below, I will set out the latest Dolphins vs Bills odds, followed by the MIA/BUF player props, and lastly my favorite Dolphins vs Bills picks for TNF.

Go to: Latest MIA vs BUF Odds | MIA vs BUF Props | MIA vs BUF Picks

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

As of 12:30 pm ET on Wednesday, the Buffalo moneyline was, at its longest, -752, giving the Bills an 88.26% implied win probability. The Miami moneyline was as long as +590, which equates to a miniscule 14.49% implied win probability. The spread favors Buffalo by as many as 12.5 points at DraftKings, and as few as 11.5 at FanDuel. The game total shows a one-point range, with bet365 setting it at 4.85 (O -122) and FanDuel listing it at 49.5 (U -104).

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MIA vs BUF Odds Movement for Thursday Night Football

The Miami/Buffalo moneyline has seen significant movement in favor of the home team. The opening NFL Week 3 odds listed Buffalo at -675. As of Wednesday, the Bills are -752 or shorter.

There hasn’t been significant movement on the spread or total in the Week 3 TNF odds: Buffalo was -12.5 in the opening odds, while the total was 49.5.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills – Key Matchups to Watch

Quarterback Mismatch

The QB matchup is a microcosm of the team’s disparate trajectories: Buffalo’s Josh Allen, the reigning MVP and current favorite in the 2025 NFL MVP odds, continues to play at an elite level, while Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa is mired in what could be a career-ending tailspin.

Allen has been a model of efficiency for Buffalo, completing 66.2% of his passes for 542 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions, adding another two scores on the ground. Meanwhile, Tagovailoa has struggled with ball security, throwing three interceptions against his three touchdowns despite a high completion rate.

Buffalo Running Game vs Miami Run Defense

The Bills have established a powerful ground-and-pound attack, averaging 166 rushing yards per game. Lead back James Cook (176 yards on 34 carries, 5.18 YPC) is finding massive holes and capitalizing. Though we’re only three weeks into the season, fatigue could already be a concern for the Miami defense. Six starters have been on the field for 99% of snaps through two games.

Facing a physical, run-heavy Buffalo offense on a short week could exacerbate that wear and tear, leading to missed tackles and blown assignments as the game progresses.

MIA Dolphins vs BUF Bills Player Props

NFL player props as of September 17, 2025 from MGM.

Allen is averaging 271 YPG so far this season, way over his passing-yardage prop of 233.5. That discrepancy reflects the \expectation that Buffalo will lean on its dominant run game. The value here might be on the under, as the Bills could build an early lead and grind the clock.

Tagovailoa’s line is set at 235.5 yards. While he’s averaged just 215 yards per game, a negative game script could force Miami into a pass-heavy approach, making the over a distinct possibility in garbage time. His interception prop at 0.5 with juice on the over (-143) is particularly appealing given his turnover issues and the strength of Buffalo’s pass rush.

Cook’s rushing prop of 65.5 yards is a strong target for an over bet, especially at Underdog where it’s listed at just 62.5 O/U. He’s averaging 88 yards per game and faces a tired defense that Buffalo will want to punish on the ground.

Allen’s anytime touchdown scorer prop at -165 is heavily juiced but for good reason; he is the team’s primary goal-line rushing threat. For Miami, Tyreek Hill’s receiving line of 66.5 yards feels attainable, as he is the focal point of the offense and will likely see heavy targets regardless of the score.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks & Prediction

• ATS: Bills -11.5 (-110) at ESPN Bet
• Over/Under: Under 49.5 (-104) at FanDuel
• Player Prop: James Cook over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-) at Underdog

Everything points towards a dominant performance from the Bills in this Thursday night matchup. Their advantage in the trenches is substantial; the offensive line has kept Josh Allen clean, while the rushing attack is bulldozing opponents. This spells disaster for a Miami defensive front that is already showing signs of fatigue just two weeks into the season.

Buffalo’s game plan will likely be straightforward: establish the run with James Cook, control the clock, and wear down the Dolphins’ defense. This will open up play-action opportunities for Allen to exploit a secondary that has allowed the highest opponent passer rating in the league.

Buffalo’s offensive line has been stellar, allowing only two sacks on Josh Allen through two games. They should be able to control the line of scrimmage against a Miami pass rush that has generated four sacks but is part of a fatigued defensive unit. On the other side, the Dolphins’ offensive line has been a liability, allowing Tua Tagovailoa to be sacked eight times already. Buffalo’s pass rush should be able to generate consistent pressure all night

The Dolphins’ offense is one-dimensional and turnover-prone. With no consistent running game to speak of, the pressure falls squarely on Tagovailoa, who has already thrown three interceptions. The Bills’ pass rush should have a field day against Miami’s porous offensive line, forcing errant throws and creating takeaway opportunities.

The historical trends are just as damning. The Bills have won 11 straight at home and have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have been abysmal in primetime (1-7 ATS in their last eight) and as underdogs, failing to cover in their last four games as a road ‘dog.