Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds 

• The Vikings and Bears meet in the final NFL Week 1 game
• JJ McCarthy will make his NFL debut on Monday Night Football
• See my Vikings vs Bears picks and predictions, plus the closing MIN vs CHI odds for MNF

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The NFL wraps up Week 1 of the 2025 season with an NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears at 7:15 pm CT/8:15 pm ET on Monday Night Football.

JJ McCarthy is set to make his debut in a primetime, divisional road matchup. Will the former Michigan Wolverine rise to the moment, or will he struggle out of the gate? Let’s dive into my Vikings vs Bears picks and predictions, and the latest MIN/CHI odds for MNF.

MIN Vikings vs CHI Bears Prediction & Picks

• Bears +1.5 (-118) at DraftKings
• Jordan Mason over 37.5 rushing yards (-115) at FanDuel

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I don’t care what accolades McCarthy gathered in college – being a rookie quarterback with no NFL experience, coming off a major injury, missing his second-best receiver in Jordan Addison, and heading into a primetime, divisional road game should under no circumstances allow for his team to be a favorite. 

Minnesota’s surrounding cast is strong, led by head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores. The defense ranked second in EPA per pay and fifth in Success Rate Allowed last year, though they’ll be without veteran safety Harrison Smith. Both sides of the ball could mesh into a successful roster, but expecting that immediately in this type of spot is a stretch.

To be fair, there’s plenty of skepticism about the Bears’ offense. The upside is that new head coach Ben Johnson should add creativity and, just as importantly, competence to both the unit and the organization as a whole. 

The math wiz from North Carolina who used to emulate Joe Montana while sketching plays in his free time as a kid was the head coaching candidate the Chicago Bears needed to land to usher a radical culture change, on and off the field

Meet Ben Johnson.https://t.co/BDZhqJMi3X

— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) September 8, 2025

On top of an offense that already includes DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and Cole Kmet, the Bears added rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burden while also signing Olamide Zaccheaus. Ben Johnson will have no shortage of weapons to scheme with.

Defensively, the Bears hired Dennis Allen to run a unit that, when healthy, can be among the league’s best. Their weakness last year was against the run, ranking 26th in Rush EPA per play and 21st in Rush Success Rate Allowed.

That’s where Jordan Mason comes in. He was brought in as Aaron Jones’ backup, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he sees a heavy workload. At 30 years old, Jones has struggled to stay healthy, and Mason has already shown he can handle volume. In Weeks 1–6 last season, he averaged 19 carries for 101.5 yards with three touchdowns before ceding work to a returning Christian McCaffrey. The sample was enough to prove Mason can produce at a high level. His prop at FanDuel is set at just 37.5 (-115), and I’m playing the over.

Why Jordan Mason is a LEAGUE WINNER 🏆 pic.twitter.com/ciTfIpqQGA

— PFF Fantasy (@PFF_Fantasy) August 31, 2025

The market feels far too eager to back McCarthy. I understand the skepticism around Chicago – and trust me, as a Chicagoan, I’ve lived through the pain and seldom look for a reason to bet on the Bears. But I can’t justify laying points with an unproven rookie quarterback off a major injury in this specific setting.

Expectations were already high after drafting Caleb Williams, and now they’ve paired him with the offseason’s most sought-after head coach. That pressure comes with urgency, and while Minnesota is formidable, Chicago should have enough balance on both sides to cover +1.5 in their season opener.

Vikings vs Bears Closing Odds

The opening spread varied depending on where you looked – some books had it at a pick’em, others with the Bears laying -1.5. Most settled with Minnesota as a short -1.5-point favorite. In the last couple hours, there has been some buy-back on the Bears, with ESPN Bet moving the default spread back to Chicago -1.5, though with -125 juice on the Vikings to cover. The Minnesota moneyline is no longer than -110, a price that’s available at both ESPN Bet and bet365. The longest remaining odds on a Chicago win are +100 at Caesars and BetMGM.

As for the total, a few shops opened as high as 45.5, but the market has since pushed it down to 43.5 across the board, with only minor variations in price. FanDuel has the best over odds at -102, while BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars all have the under at -110.

Monday Night Football odds as of 5:15 pm ET.