Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys Pick, Prediction and Odds for SNF

• The Cowboys are 6.5-point favorites over the Vikings on Sunday Night Football
• Dallas ranks dead last in passing yards and passing TD allowed
• See my Vikings vs Cowboys pick and prediction below, plus the latest odds for SNF

It’s the Vikings (5-8, 3-4 away) vs the Cowboys (6-6-1, 4-1-1 home) on Sunday Night Football in Week 15. Online sportsbooks are extremely bullish on Dallas to keep its slim playoff hopes alive in the latest SNF odds, but I personally think this spread is outrageously high.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from AT&T Stadium in Dallas, TX, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here are my Vikings vs Cowboys pick and prediction, as well as the latest odds for SNF.

Vikings vs Cowboys Pick and Prediction

I’m taking Minnesota +6.5 as my favorite Vikings vs Cowboys pick. The Vikings are fresh off their best game of the season in Week 14, and there was finally signs of life from J.J. McCarthy. Minnesota’s offensive line is back to full strength, while their defense has been playing out of their minds for the last few weeks.

Dallas is always a tough draw at home, but injury luck is certainly not breaking their way ahead of this matchup. The Cowboys also bring the worst pass defense in the league to the table, giving us hope that McCarthy might actually put up a decent statistical performance.

McCarthy looked better than he has all season in a blowout win over Washington, throwing 3 TD passes and completing 70% of his throws. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has reportedly simplified the playbook, and the whole offensive operation looked better. At one point, they went on a 19-play, 12-minute scoring drive versus the Commanders, a feat that would have seemed unthinkable prior to the game starting.

Of course, it didn’t hurt that the o-line was healthy, as Week 14 marked just the second time all season the starting five had been intact.

There’s no better matchup than the Dallas pass defense for McCarthy, as that unit couldn’t stop a nose bleed. The Cowboys enter the week ranked dead last in passing yards and passing TD allowed, as well as pass defense DVOA.

Dallas is surrendering 255.2 yards through the air per game, and has allowed eight different receivers to rack up at least 90 yards this season. That could signal a big game for Justin Jefferson, who’s been invisible over the last two weeks.

On the other side of the ball, the Vikings defense will come to play. They’ve held each of their last three opponents under 300 yards, including top Super Bowl odds contenders Green Bay and Seattle.

Minnesota Vikings Defensive Stats

Dak Prescott may be playing at an NFL MVP odds level, but he’ll be shorthanded on Sunday. Prescott’s best offensive lineman Tyler Guyton has already been ruled out, while his safety valve Jake Ferguson is questionable. CeeDee Lamb doesn’t carry an injury designation into this game, but is just nine days removed from an awful concussion.

Minnesota’s defense ranks second in pressure rate this season, and is top-10 in EPA/play, success rate and EPA/pass. If there’s a weakness, it’s against the deep ball, which could be problematic with George Pickens lined up on the outside. Pickens is a big play waiting to happen, with 18 catches of 20+ yards, and eight catches of 30+ yards.

Still, we said that about Dallas’ Week 14 opponent Detroit, and the Cowboys were run out of Ford Field by the Lions, a team the Vikings beat earlier this season.

There’s not nearly enough to separate these two teams to justify a 6.5-point spread. They’re only four spots apart per DVOA for the entire season, while Minnesota and the Cowboys rank 21st and 20th, respectively, per weighted DVOA over the last six weeks.

Dallas’ pass defense is porous enough to make any QB look good, while their offensive injury situation comes at a horrible time, given the strength of the Vikings defense.

MIN Vikings vs DAL Cowboys Odds

Before making any Sunday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. The spread varies between 5.5 and 6.5, depending on where you look, so do yourself a favor and visit FanDuel if you’re on Minnesota like me.

Total-wise, the over/under is between 47.5 and 48, and it’s worth noting the over is 9-4 in Dallas games this season.

Odds as of Dec. 13. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on SNF.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, Dallas is dominating the betting action on the moneyline and spread, which is fine by me. I’ll gladly be on the same side as the books for this primetime matchup, as few sides draw as much public money as America’s Team.