New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction, Pick and Betting lines for SNF

• The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites over the Patriots on Sunday Night Football
• New England owns the worst red zone scoring defense
• See my Patriots vs Ravens prediction below, plus the latest betting lines for SNF

We’ve got a marquee matchup on Sunday Night Football this week as the Patriots (11-3, 6-0 away) visit the Ravens (7-7, 3-5 home). New England is closing in on its first division title in the post-Tom Brady era, while Baltimore is in a dog fight with the Steelers for the AFC North lead.

Online sportsbooks are siding with the Ravens as 2.5-point favorites in the latest SNF odds, and I think you can make an argument that the spread should be even higher based on multiple factors that I’ll discuss.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Patriots vs Ravens prediction and pick, as well as the latest betting lines for SNF.

Patriots vs Ravens Prediction and Pick

Baltimore’s season could very well be on the line in this matchup if Pittsburgh wins earlier in the day, but even if the Steelers lose the Ravens need this game to keep pace. New England on the other hand, can lose this game and still win the AFC East by winning their last two contests versus the lowly Jets and Dolphins.

Let’s start with why I’m fading New England. Defensively this team is a mess. Look no further than last week against the Bills. The Pats coughed up 35 points to Buffalo, blowing a 21-point lead in the process. The Bills were able to march up and down the field at will once they got settled, with New England offering little resistance.

The loss was the Pats first in 11 games, but there have been red flags for quite some time. Since Week 8, New England’s defense ranks 30th in rushing success rate, and 30th in EPA/rush. They are last in red zone scoring defense this season, and are dealing with key injuries. Defensive tackle Milton Williams is on IR, and he’s by far their best run stopper.

Linebacker Robert Spillane is also out, and his loss is significant for two reasons. One, he leads the team in tackles, and two, he’s the defensive signal caller responsible for getting everyone set up properly. The Pats linebacker corps outside of him is weak, and a liability in both run and pass defense.

Patriots Defensive Stats Since Week 8

That unit has struggled mightily covering tight ends and versus heavy personnel, which is a huge problem against Baltimore. The Ravens have three reliable tight ends they can throw to, and only five teams have allowed more catches to that position than New England.

Offensively, the Pats ceiling with NFL MVP odds contender Drake Maye is still high, but you can poke holes in them there as well. Maye, for instance, is a major regression candidate. He’s been picked off only seven times this season, despite having 14 turnover-worthy plays. Normally, those numbers are a lot closer together, meaning turnovers are likely coming.

Speaking of regression, that’s also coming in the form of fumbles and fourth-down conversions. New England has fumbled 17 times but has recovered 10 of them. They’ve also converted 74% of their 4th down tries, and the turnover luck and 4th down efficiency is simply not sustainable.

Regression could start on Sunday Night Football, as Baltimore has been playing significantly better defense recently. Since Week 6, Baltimore’s D is fifth in EPA/play and success rate, and number one versus the run. Don’t forget, they were among the preseason Super Bowl odds favorites, and a stingy defense was a big reason why.

The Ravens offense has also been trending up, which coincides with Lamar Jackson getting healthy. Since Week 8, Baltimore’s offense ranks second in EPA/rush. If they can establish the run early, gapping holes will open up in the play-action game, and that’s where Lamar can feast.

Don’t be fooled by this team’s record. Yes, New England is one of only four 11 teams, but they’ve also faced the easiest schedule in the league. Seven of their 10 wins have come against rookie QB’s or quarterbacks that have already been benched. The Ravens are a big step up in competition, and virtually unbeatable down the stretch.

With Jackson under center, Baltimore is 16-0 in Weeks 16 through 18, and 18-8 against the spread in December.

NE Patriots vs BAL Ravens Betting Lines

Before making any Sunday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. If you’re on Baltimore against the spread like me, make sure you visit FanDuel. They’re offering a -2.5 spread, while most other commercial books have moved the line to -3.

Totalwise, stick with FanDuel if you like the over, but visit DraftKings if you want to wager on the under. They’re hanging a 49.5 point total, which is a point higher than most other shops.

Odds as of Dec. 20. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on SNF.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, online sportsbooks will definitely be rooting for the Ravens as well. As of Saturday afternoon, 85% of the spread tickets and 88% of the ATS handle is on New England.