New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks & Closing Odds for SNF

• The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football in Week 5
• The Bills can take an early three-game stranglehold on the AFC East with a win tonight
• See my Patriots vs Bills picks and the closing odds for SNF

The New England Patriots (2-2, away, ATS) and Buffalo Bills (4-0, 2-0 home, ATS) meet in an all-AFC East battle on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. The game will kickoff at 8:20 pm ET from Orchard Park with NBC carrying the broadcast.

Below, I have set out my favorite Patriots vs Bills picks, followed by the closing Patriots vs Bills odds for SNF.

Go to: Patriots vs Bills Picks || Current Patriots vs Bills Odds

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Picks

• Over 48.5 (-110) at BetRivers
• Rhamondre Stevenson anytime TD (+250) at Sports Interaction

My two favorite Patriots vs Bills picks are the over, which is still available at 48.5 at certain books, and Rhamondre Stevenson to finally find the end zone at a jacked-up price of +250.

Bills games have hit 50-plus points three of four times this season and are averaging 55.8 PPG. Pats games have been considerably lower scoring (45.8 PPG) but their offense was electric last week in a 42-13 win over Carolina. In Week 2, they racked up 33 points in a win at Miami. In Week 3, they were limited to just two touchdowns by Pittsburgh in a 21-14 loss, but they out-gained the Steelers 369-203 on the day.

All of that is to say: this is not the same anemic Patriots offense we saw throughout last season. Drake Maye has upped his passer rating from 88.1 as a rookie to a borderline-elite 109.4 and is averaging nearly 250 passing yards per game. Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Antonio Gibson combine to give the Pats one of the deepest running back corps in the league.

The Patriots currently sit 13th in the NFL in O-DVOA after finishing 2024 third-worst in the league.

Their defense, however, has left a little to be desired, especially through the air (966 yards in four games). They currently sit 16th in the league in yards allowed and will be hard-pressed to keep the Bills offense at bay on the road.

Buffalo is averaging 404.0 total yards per game, second-best in the NFL (they would be first but league-leading Dallas has played two OT games). Reigning-winner Josh Allen is the heavy favorite to repeat in the NFL MVP odds. The Bills are going to put up points and the Pats are going to be forced to be aggressive in order to keep up, something they’re actually able to do this season.

This over bet is helped by the fact that Buffalo’s defense could still be missing arguably its two best players: DT Ed Oliver and MLB Matt Milano. Both have been out for multiple games and are questionable for SNF.

My second bet tonight is Stevenson to score his first TD of the season. As mentioned, he’s part of a three-person RB committee so he’s not seeing huge volume. But he is the lead back (five more carries than any other player) and has the most red-zone touches (six). Henderson may be the usual goal-line option, but it’s not like Stevenson is relegated to the bench inside the 20.

He led the team with eight touchdowns last season (seven rushing, one receiving) and is long overdue to find paydirt this season. His dry spell has led to his anytime TD odds growing as long as +250, which is just a 28.57% implied probability. That’s a great price on a player who scored roughly every-other game last year.

Looking for more Patriots vs Bill picks to tail? Check out:

• John Hyslop’s Patriots vs Bills Same-Game Parlay
• Michael Harrison’s Patriots vs Bills Player Props to Target

Patriots vs Bills Closing Odds for SNF

The latest Patriots vs Bills odds list Buffalo as a 7.5-point home favorite and -435 or shorter on the moneyline. New England comes back as a +350 underdog.

The game total ranges from 49.5 to 50.5. Over bettors can get 49.5 (-108) at FanDuel, while under bettors should take 50.5 (-123) at DraftKings.

The line has moved pretty significantly in New England’s direction since the opening NFL Week 5 odds were posted last Sunday. The Bills opened as 9.5-point home favorites and -620 on the moneyline. The Patriots were +460 road underdogs at that point.

The game total has been bet up slightly at most books after opening at 49.5.

Bettors can use SBD’s NFL odds page to see the latest lines for every game this season, along with our NFL public betting splits page, which shows how the public is betting the spread, moneyline, and total in every game this season.

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