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NFL Betting – Cards vs. Panthers: Who will be Super Bowl Fav?

Eric Thompson

by Eric Thompson in NFL Football

Updated Jan 17, 2018 · 9:39 AM PST

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-3, 48 o/u)

The Carolina Panthers (16-1, 9-0 Home) might want to consider applying for honorary NFC West status after this week’s tilt against the Arizona Cardinals (14-3, 7-1 Away). Sunday will mark seven straight playoff games that the Panthers have played a team from the rough-and-tumble West. But for the first time since a 2005 game against the Seahawks, the winner will advance to the Super Bowl.

In what should be the better of the two games this weekend, the Panthers will put their undefeated home record on the line against the best the NFC West – scratch that – the entire NFC has to offer, when they welcome the Cardinals to Bank of America Stadium (6:40 PM Eastern).

While the AFC Championship has all sorts of storylines surrounding Manning and Brady’s rivalry, there is nothing triumphant about these teams’ histories. Both franchises boast just one Super Bowl appearance, and both lost late in heartbreaking fashion. Arizona and Carolina were also touchdown underdogs when they made it to the big game last decade, but that certainly won’t be the case this time around no matter who advances.

The Patriots and Broncos may have illustrious histories, but in the present, there are no two teams better than the Panthers and Cards.

Carolina had the league’s top scoring offense, sixth scoring defense, and led the league in both takeaways and turnover differential. Arizona led the NFL in yards, finished second in scoring offense, seventh in scoring defense, second in takeaways, and was the least penalized team in the league to boot.

It’s not surprising that conversations about these teams start at the quarterback position: Carolina’s Cam Newton should win this season’s MVP while Arizona’s Carson Palmer will likely finish the voting as runner-up. But, before the season, there was almost no indication either was capable of hitting such highs in 2015.

Everyone knew Newton was capable of making big plays with his arm or legs, but he’d never been the most accurate of passers. After losing his top wide out in training camp, expectations for this season were tempered. So I guess you could say throwing a career high in touchdowns (35), a career low in interceptions (ten), and leading his team to the best record in the league was … unexpected.

Palmer had shown flashes of elite play early in his career in Cincinnati. But, after dealing with a few injuries and the world’s most annoying receiving corps, Palmer’s play declined and he left for browner pastures (Oakland).

Palmer seemed to regain his game in the desert, but another ACL injury derailed last season. At 36, and coming off another surgery, it was a big risk to think he could stay healthy all season. But Palmer put in a tremendous offseason and proved to be more than just healthy; he was dynamic, setting career highs in yards (4,671), touchdowns (35), and passer rating (104.6).

Oddly enough, Newton, who’s in just his fifth season, enters this game with more playoff experience than Palmer, a 13-year vet. Last week was Palmer’s first playoff win, a 26-20 all-timer over the Green Bay Packers. That game shouldn’t have been nearly as thrilling as it was, though; the Cards had plenty of chances to run away with the game in the second half. But Palmer had a pair of interceptions, including an inexcusable one in the redzone. If he shows those types of jitters against the Panthers D, this game will be over quickly.

Newton looked all kinds of comfortable against Seattle, but that can be expected when the ground game is working so well. Jonathan Stewart returned at running back after missing the final three games of the regular season, and provided a huge boost to the NFL’s second-best rushing team. Newton didn’t even attempt a pass until his team already had a comfortable 14-0 lead.

A big part of Carolina grabbing that huge lead was the pressure that their defensive line generated, led by breakout defensive tackle Kawann Short. The Panthers had five sacks against a porous Seattle line, but they should face a much stiffer test this time around. The Cardinals surrendered just 27 sacks this year, tied for fourth in the league. While they didn’t have their best effort against Green Bay, they are capable of not only keeping Palmer clean, but paving the way for a quality run game.

Many who are high on Arizona this week will also point out the loaded nature of their receiving corps versus the banged up condition of the Carolina secondary. The Panthers lost Bene’ Benwikere and Charles Tillman for the rest of the year, leaving just Cortland Finnegan and Robert McClain to play alongside All-Pro corner Josh Norman.

Before you go chalking up Finnegan and McClain as exploitable matchups, remember the center of this defense.

All-Pro linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis might be the two best coverage backers in the game. Able to take away large chunks of the field, both had four interceptions in the regular season and Kuechly added another pick-six last week.

Arizona has a similar issue on defense: opposing quarterbacks will pick on lesser corners Justin Bethel and Jerraud Powers in an effort to avoid throwing near Patrick Peterson. What will be extra frustrating for Peterson in this game is that the Panthers don’t even have a lead wide receiver for him to take away; Newton spreads the ball around almost evenly between his four primary targets, relying most heavily on tight end Greg Olsen. Peterson could find himself matched up against the tight end some plays, just to maximize his impact on the game.

But even if the Cards can corral Jonathan Stewart and the Panther passing game, that still leaves the issue of bringing down Superman, himself. Listed at 245 lbs, most of which is muscle, Newton is perhaps the toughest QB to tackle in the entire league. It’s no secret that Arizona’s D is not the biggest in size; stopping Newton’s run game will be a tall order. And while the Cards didn’t do much losing this year, all three losses had one thing in common: they allowed their opponents to gain over 140 yards on the ground.

The Cardinals and Panthers have met twice in the postseason before, with each side claiming one victory. This game will only be the second time these teams have met with Palmer and Newton under center. The first game was a forgettable 22-6 Arizona win in which both QBs had a hat trick of interceptions.

Arizona enters the game as an underdog for just the second time this season. They previously covered as three-point dogs in Seattle, helping their 6-2 ATS record as a road team. Carolina has cooked up a 7-2 ATS record at home so far this season, and the Panthers are especially money as a small favorite, going 7-0 when favored by 3.5 or less.

When it comes to betting teams that are this closely matched, I’ll admit that gut feelings eventually prove decisive. So here’s my feeling: the Panthers have played in three NFC Championship games before, all three on the road. I think Carolina will cash in on their first chance to win the George Halas Trophy in front of their fans and take their historic run on to San Francisco.

Pick: Panthers -3.

(Photo credit: Keith Allison (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode].)

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