NFL Betting: Cat Fight! Jags tussle with Lions

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 47.5 o/u)

I pose a riddle to you, dear reader. What is blue and silver, historically terrible, and currently favored to win the NFC North? It’s the team that was shunned by their legendary receiver this offseason, the team that will host the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7, 1-3 Road) this weekend in hopes of running their record to two games above .500, the team we used to all feel sorry for: the Detroit Lions (5-4, 3-1 Home)!

There’s no need to pity the Lions anymore, as they head into the stretch run with their playoff fate very much in their own hands. The preseason darlings of the NFC North – Minnesota and Green Bay – are both struggling to stay afloat and Detroit is jumping across the river on the tops of their heads.

Matthew Stafford has been brilliant in his first year without Calvin Johnson, on pace for a career-high in passer rating and a career-low in interceptions. But despite their quarterback’s success, the Lions haven’t been winning games easily by any means. Detroit has trailed at some point in the fourth quarter of every game they’ve played this season. Their largest win so far – a six-point victory over the Vikings – came in overtime.

This team wouldn’t recognize a “comfortable” win if it was waiting in their living room wrapped in a Snuggie with a mug of hot chocolate.

For any team that struggles to play four complete quarters, glimpsing the Jaguars on the opposite sideline is a welcome sight. Jacksonville has been blown out three times this season, and continues to be dogged by the same ball-security issues that have been a problem since Blake Bortles took over under center. Their 19 giveaways are third-worst in the NFL, and 10 of them have come during the team’s current four-game losing streak.

That’s great news for a Detroit defense that has generated the second-fewest takeaways in the NFL. (Only Jacksonville has been worse in that department.)

Ignoring their lack of takeaways, though, the Jags are performing better on the defensive side of the ball, and should give Stafford some trouble on Sunday. Jacksonville only allows 204 passing yards a game, and has held its last two opponents under 300 total yards. If the offense would stop giving up short fields, they might actually win a game.

While no bettor can legitimately expect Bortles to protect the football, they can expect him to perform garbage time heroics. Nine of his 16 touchdown passes this year have come in the fourth quarter, including five in the last four games. Against a porous Lions D that ranks dead-last in defensive DVOA, Bortles and the Jags offense should eventually find enough success to cover.

As added incentive, Jacksonville is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5 or more points. Detroit is just 1-2 ATS this season as a favorite.

Pick: Jaguars (+6.5).

Photo Credit: MGoBlog (Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0/]