NFL Betting: Jags Full of Holes, Chiefs Turn to Foles

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44 o/u)

If aliens came to earth and watched Week 8 of the NFL, even they would be able to see that the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5, 1-2 Away) were the worst team to take the field. Of course, considering their Color Rush uniforms resembled that of feared Captain Kirk, maybe they’d keep their alien mouths/gills/beaks shut? Either way, just about the only person unable to identify the ineptitude of this team is owner Shad Khan, who continues to employ Gus Bradley as coach.

A career 14-41 with the Jags, Bradley will need to turn things around this season if he has any hopes of sticking around. But that won’t be an easy feat this week, visiting the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2, 3-0 Home) at the hostile Arrowhead Stadium (1:00 PM Eastern).

In order to feed the bloodlust of angry Jaguars fans (fan?), the team let go of offensive coordinator Greg Olson last week. After finishing in the middle of the league in points per game last season, the offense regressed this year, starting and ending with quarterback Blake Bortles. Ranking 27th in the league in passer rating, Bortles has done little this year to dispel the notion that he’s a “garbage time player,” throwing seven of his 12 TDs in the final quarter, while posting a respectable 94.4 rating.

To counter to Bortles’ struggles early in games, Jacksonville should be relying on the ground game, but they’ve has been falling behind so quickly, they’ve stopped running almost altogether. No team in the NFL has fewer rushing attempts, even though plenty of teams have had less success than the Jags (3.8 yards per carry).

Kansas City will be trotting out backup quarterback Nick Foles and third-string running back Charcandrick West this weekend, and even still, I’m a lot more confident in their ability to put up points. The Chiefs run a simple West Coast offense, consistently picking on the mismatch that tight end Travis Kelce offers over the middle. The biggest difference between Foles and starter Alex Smith is Foles’ willingness to go deep. The Chiefs offense may go a bit more vertical this week, meaning a big day for rookie Tyreek Hill could be in store.

After seeing how Tennessee abused Jacksonville on the ground and in the play-action passing game last week, the Chiefs have the blueprint to destroy the league’s 25th-ranked scoring defense. The question for this game will be, can Bortles and this struggling offense keep it close?

We saw an early OC firing work wonders for the Buffalo Bills, but they’re working with better talent, particularly along the offensive line. The Chiefs lead the league in interceptions and have owned the time of possession battle in their last three games (possessing the ball for an average of 32:34). If the Jags fall behind early in this one, it’s hard to see Bortles’ “garbage time” heroics leading Jacksonville to a cover.

In fact, for his career, Bortles is 3-5-1 against the number as a seven-point (or more) underdog, while the Jaguars are just 7-10-2 ATS on the road since 2014. At the end of the day, I trust this group of Kansas City backups to get the cover, and I’m sure the aliens would agree.

Pick: Chiefs (-7.5).

Photo credit: Keith Allison (Flickr)[https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/].