NFL Betting – Wounded Steelers Meet Manning, Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-7, 40 o/u)

The Denver Broncos (12-4, 6-2 Home) are catching quite a break in the Divisional Playoffs, hosting a depleted Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, 4-4 Away) team this Sunday at Sports Authority Field at Mile High (4:40 PM Eastern).

With Ben Roethlisberger leading an offense as dangerous as any in the league, the Steelers were the team that no one wanted to face in the AFC. But after a brutal, injury-filled Wild Card game against Cincinnati, Pittsburgh heads to Denver in a metaphorical body cast. The team announced WR Antonio Brown (concussion) and RB DeAngelo Williams (ankle) won’t play against the Broncos.

Back when the Steelers and Broncos met in Week 15, Brown caught 16 passes for 189 yards and two score, helping Pitt battle back for a 34-27 win. That game was just one of many outstanding performances for the diminutive wideout this year. Brown finished second in the league in receiving yards (1,834) and added ten majors.

Making matters worse, Roethlisberger is suffering from a torn shoulder. He’s listed as “questionable” but will almost certainly make the start. Whether he finishes the game – and whether he’s able to throw more than ten yards down field – remains to be seen, though.

Without Brown and Williams, Pittsburgh will look to its number two and three receivers, Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton, to step up. The pair had a combined 1,514 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. But they’ll be facing a Denver defense that finished the year first in total yards and sacks (52).

Yes, the secondary was lit up by Roethlisberger and Brown in Week 15, but it was also down its two starting safeties (Darian Stewart and TJ Ward) and facing a much different looking Pittsburgh attack.

More than ever, Pittsburgh will needs its own defense to step up. The unit was solid against the run this year, but really struggled against the pass. The good news is that they’ll be facing the 2015-16 version of Peyton Manning, who is a shell of his former self. The aging quarterback threw 17 interceptions this season despite missing seven games. Even in his younger days, Manning struggled in the playoffs, suffering an NFL-worst nine one-and-done performances.

Denver coach Gary Kubiak will be hoping for a solid performance from his up-and-down offensive line. When they’re blocking well and the Broncos are able to establish a ground game, the offense flows nicely. (See for instance the 30-24 OT win over New England when the team rushed for nearly 179 yards.) When the pressure is put on the QB – be it Manning or Osweiler – to carry the load, Denver has looked lost. (See for instance the 15-12 loss to Oakland when they mustered just 34 yards on the ground and averaged 1.6 yards per carry.)

Denver hasn’t beaten many teams by a touchdown or more this year (three to be precise), but the trends favor the Broncos. Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last eight games games at Mile High and 1-4-1 ATS in the last six, overall, against the Broncos.

Pick: Broncos -7.

(Photo credit: Jeffrey Beall (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)