NFL Divisional Playoff Odds Medley
By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football
Updated: January 17, 2018 at 9:39 am ESTPublished:
Except for Pittsburgh and Cincinnati’s insane fourth quarter and Blair Walsh’s choke-job, that was a wildly boring Wild Card weekend. Fans weren’t even able to leave the stadiums happy as all four road teams walked away with wins. (It took seven quarters for a home team to even score a point.)
The weather was a big part of the terrible on-field product. Minnesota and Seattle played the third-coldest game in NFL history; the Steelers and Bengals slugged it out in driving rain that made passing pretty tough (eh, AJ); and Houston … has no excuse. (What the hell was that, Brian Hoyer?)
The weather shouldn’t play nearly as big a role this weekend with games in Foxborough, Charlotte, and Phoenix. Even Denver’s battle with Pittsburgh at Mile High is forecast to be a balmy 31 degrees.
Will that lead to better games? Very probably. Will we set the odds for all things Divisional Playoffs at the end of this sentence? Very nearly.
2016 NFL Divisional Playoff Odds and Props
1. Odds all four road teams win in the Divisional Playoffs (KC, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Green Bay): 70/1
2. Odds all four home teams win (New England, Denver, Carolina, and Arizona): 7/2
3. Odds a Divisional Playoff game is decided on a scoring play with less than ten seconds on the clock: 1/1
- In the last five years, nine playoff games have been decided on scores in the last ten seconds or overtime. Despite a pair of close games last week, neither one came down to that. It appears we’re due for one.
4. Odds of the following kickers miss a game-winning field goal attempt in the final minute if they have the chance:
Gano: 10/3
Santos: 11/2
Cantazaro: 6/1
McManus: 13/2
Boswell: 13/2
Crosby: 7/1
Gostkowski: 10/1
Hauschka: 11/1
- Over the last five years, the average attempt for a playoff game-winning/tying field goal at the end of the game is 35 yards. Gano has the worst percentage of all kickers from that distance. Not shockingly, the kickers least likely to miss boast the most playoff experience, including Hauschka, who is a perfect 14 of 14 in the postseason.
5. Odds of a mixed extra point: 21/1
6. Odds the Pittsburgh Steelers attempt a two-point conversion: 2/5
7. Odds of the following Super Bowl Match-Ups:
- New England versus Arizona: 6/1
- New England versus Carolina: 7/1
- Denver versus Arizona: 7/1
- New England versus Seattle (SB XLIX rematch): 9/1
- Kansas City versus Green Bay (SB I rematch): 42/1
- With four teams remaining on each side, there are 16 possible Super Bowl matchups. Astoundingly, nine of those matchups have already occurred. Green Bay has literally already played a Super Bowl against everyone left in the AFC.
David Johnson (Arizona): 5/2
- The rookie had just one 100-yard game this year, but he didn’t become the feature back until late in the season and has the most favorable matchup of the weekend. Green Bay is the worst rush-defense left (119.1 yards against per game).
Ronnie Hillman (Denver): 13/2
CJ Anderson (Denver): 7/1
- Anderson and Hillman each had their moments this year with multiple 100-yard games. But they’ll probably split carries pretty evenly this weekend, which obviously hurts both their chances. So does the fact that Pittsburgh only gives up 91 rush yards per game.
Charcandrick West (Kansas City): 8/1
- Spencer Ware’s status is unclear thanks to an ankle sprain. That makes Ware the most likely KC back to reach 100 yards. The second-year has a tough matchup against New England (98.8 yards against per game) but he proved he can do it against solid rush defenses, posting his only 100-yard game against the Steelers in Week 7.
Russell Wilson (Seattle): 35/1
- DangeRuss has four 100-yard games under his belt, but none this year. He’s becoming more of a pocket passer and Carolina’s supremely talented linebacking corps should keep him there.
Cam Newton (Carolina): 40/1
- He’s only done it three times in his career and he’s facing a Seattle D that’s best in the league against the run.
- Brady hit 300 yards seven times this year. None of those came in the last four weeks. What changed? The team was hit hard by injuries, including at the WR position. Both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola should return this weekend. Throw in one Gronk – and an anemic run game which will force Belichick to go pass-heavy again – and Brady should hit 300 yards, even against a solid KC pass-defense (231.1 yards per game).
- Palmer averaged 290 yards per game and hit three bills in nine of 16 games. The Packers were decent against the pass, overall (227 yards per game), but Palmer lit them up for 268 yards on just 27 attempts in Week 16 (9.8 yards per attempt). The most likely scenario in which Palmer doesn’t hit 300 yards: Zona jumps out to a big lead and goes run heavy.
- Cam had three 300-yard games for the run-first Panthers. The Seattle secondary isn’t what is used to be, though, and Cam may get a lot of attempts if Carolina can’t get going on the ground against Seattle’s stout front seven.
- Big Ben threw for over 300 yards in eight of his 12 games this year. So why is he at 8/1? Because he suffered a separated shoulder last weekend and he’s playing a ferocious Denver defense. But we’re never ones to count out the oft-hurt, but seldom-contained Roethlisberger. If he’s in the lineup – which it looks like he will be – Pittsburgh could easily dink-and-dunk their way to over 300 yards. The healthy version of Big Ben torched that ferocious Denver D for 380 yards just a few short weeks ago.
- The DeflateGate game was the last playoff game they called. But it looks like Ian Eagle is getting the nod for the Pats/Chiefs game. Jim and Phil will have to work hard to shoehorn DeflateGate into the Broncos/Steelers broadcast. That doesn’t mean they can’t pull off a couple mentions, though!
- Gary Kubiak was pretty quick to pull Brock Osweiler and insert Manning in Week 17. But that makes it seem like he wants Manning at the helm (versus being governed by caprice). Unless Manning gets injured or is truly terrible, like Brian-Hoyer, four-picks terrible (which is less likely given all the rest he’s been getting and the ample time he’s had to prepare for a subpar Steeler secondary), he’s in there to stay.
- As keen as Kubiak is to have Manning at the helm, Mike Tomlin will be even more adamant that Landry Jones doesn’t see the field after his 2-of-5, 11-yard, one-pick performance in relief against the Bengals.
(Photo credit: Craig Hawkins (flickr) “In the huddle, Broncos vs. Steelers 2012″ [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/2.0/legalcode].)
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.