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NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 7: Bet on a Chiefs Letdown

Zach Reger

By Zach Reger in NFL News

Published:


Ashton Jeanty celebrating in the endzone
Sep 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) celebrates a touchdown during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
  • NFL Week 7 is underway
  • In my NFL picks against the spread this week, I am targeting two underdogs and one favorite
  • Keep reading for all my ATS picks for NFL Week 7 on Sunday, October 19

NFL Week 7 is here, and there are a lot of intriguing matchups. is underway. Underdogs continue to cover the spread, especially in primetime games. After the Bengals (+5.5) upset the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, primetime underdogs are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in the last eight.

Despite that, I am looking at just one underdog to cover the spread in my NFL best bets for Week 7.

See below for my favorite NFL Week 7 picks against the spread for this weekend.

NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread

MatchupSpreadPick
Rams vs JaguarsLAR -3Rams -3
Raiders vs ChiefsKC -12Raiders +12
Saints vs BearsCHI -5Saints +5
Dolphins vs BrownsCLE -2.5Browns -2.5
Patriots vs TitansNE -7Patriots -7
Eagles vs VikingsPHI -2Vikings +2
Panthers vs JetsCAR -1.5Jets +1.5
Giants vs BroncosDEN -7Broncos -7
Colts vs ChargersLAC -1.5Chargers -1.5
Commanders vs CowboysWAS -1Commanders -1
Packers vs CardinalsGB -6.5Packers -6.5
Falcons vs 49ersSF -249ers -2
Buccaneers vs LionsDET -5.5Lions -5.5
Texans vs SeahawksSEA -3Seahawks -3

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NFL ATS Pick #1: Raiders +12 vs Chiefs

Yes, the Raiders are really bad, but they had a chance to get right vs Tennessee last week, and now they travel to Kansas City to face their AFC West rival. The Chiefs looked great on Sunday Night Football against the Lions, but they have struggled against the Raiders of late. Las Vegas has covered the spread in three straight games vs the Chiefs, winning one outright.

I do not believe the Raiders will win this game, but 12 points is too many points for a divisional underdog. This is also a weird spot for the Chiefs. Kansas City is coming off an emotional victory over Detroit at home in primetime. Next week, they play the Commanders on Monday Night Football. This is a combination of a letdown spot and a lookahead spot, and all that is standing in their way is the 2-4 Raiders.

This year’s Chiefs team looks different, but they have still played in a lot of close games, and I am expecting another one on Sunday against a team that has played Kansas City well lately.

As a favorite of 7.5 points or more, Patrick Mahomes is just 13-24-1 (35.1%) against the spread since 2020. Mahomes has also struggled to cover the spread against the AFC West. He has been great at getting the outright win, but he is 4-12-1 ATS vs the AFC West since 2022.

Take the points with the divisional underdog on Sunday.

  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Raiders +12 (-110)

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
AwayPointSpread +12
Spread
NFL • Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs
-110 on Bet365
SCHEDULED • 10/19/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1760718275770-eede-450

NFL ATS Pick #2: Browns -2.5 vs Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa travels to Cleveland to face the Browns defense. That is all I need to know to lock this bet in. But let’s take a little deeper dive.

The Browns have struggled, but the Dolphins are even more in disarray. Tua threw three interceptions last week, and Cleveland will not make it any easier.

Wind gusts of 50-60 mph are expected in this game, which feeds right into what the Browns want to do. They want to run the ball with Quinshon Judkins and play strong defense. Miami is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry.

Tua has won just one road game in his last nine, and I cannot trust this Miami team to close out games. He has struggled throwing the ball, and the combination of the Cleveland weather and the Browns pass rush will continue to make it difficult. DeVon Achane has been a bright spot for the Dolphins, but the Browns are tough against the run.

It feels weird betting on the Browns as a favorite, but it is the right call.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Browns -2.5 (-110)

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
HomePointSpread -2.5
Spread
NFL • Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
-110 on Bet365
SCHEDULED • 10/19/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1760718293534-eede-613

NFL ATS Pick #3: Broncos -7 vs Giants

This is my favorite bet of the weekend. I believe the Broncos are undervalued, and the Giants are getting too much hype heading into Sunday. Denver won an ugly London game, which I am not putting a lot of stock into. The Giants, on the other hand, have been electric the last few weeks with Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo.

The rookie quarterback is making his second road start, and he has yet to face a defense like Denver’s. The Giants have had success running the ball the last few weeks, but the Broncos are allowing just 3.9 yards per carry this season. Dart will have to win this game with his arm, which will not be easy against Pat Surtain and company.

The Giants are riding high, but this is still a team that lost by 12 points to the Saints just a couple of weeks ago.

Bo Nix is 9-3 against the spread as a favorite in his career, and he has played much better at home. New York’s defense is still vulnerable, so the Broncos should be able to cover this spread.

  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Broncos -7 (-110)

Sports Betting Dime •

Pick
Odds
HomePointSpread -7
Spread
NFL • New York Giants @ Denver Broncos
-110 on BetMGM
SCHEDULED • 10/19/2025
Tally (Win %)
0-0-0 (0%)
Money Meter
$0.00
ROI
0.0%
Betslip #1760718313614-eede-263

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Zach Reger
Zach Reger

Social Media Manager; Sports Betting Personality & Handicapper

Zach has been involved in the sports betting industry for three years. After starting to bet on sports in college, Zach was interested in how it can make any game interesting. The trends, line movement, and finding unique angles to predict the outcomes of games captivated Zach to get more involved.

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