NFL Week 12 Betting – Bills and Chiefs Clash at Arrowhead

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 41.5 o/u)

At a glance, both the Buffalo Bills (5-5, 3-2 Away) and Kansas City Chiefs (5-5, 2-2 Home) are alive and well in the AFC Wild Card race, currently tied for the second berth. But one team will come into this Sunday’s matchup (1:00 PM Eastern at Arrowhead Stadium) with markedly more momentum.

Kansas City is one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment, riding a four-game win-streak, highlighted by last week’s 33-3 romp over division rival San Diego.

After a dreadful 1-5 start, it was all doom-and-gloom in Mizzurah. That only got worse when the team’s offensive leader, RB Jamaal Charles, was lost for the year to a knee injury. But a stable of unheralded running backs, coupled with solid (if unexciting) QB play from Alex Smith, has KC rolling.

Head coach Andy Reid sees the turnaround as a character issue.

“I’m proud of the guys for the character they have,” Reid told the Associated Press. “[The season v]ery easily could have gone the other way. Coaches and players, for that matter. And they didn’t do that. They played their hearts out. And they’ll continue to do that because that’s the way they’re wired.”

After facing the Bills this week, the Chiefs don’t have a current playoff squad left on their schedule, facing the Raiders (twice), Chargers, Ravens, and Browns to wrap the year. The potential to run the table is palpable.

The Bills are also 5-5 on the year, but come into Sunday on the heels of a tough loss to the Patriots (20-13). Not only did the Bills fail to separate themselves in the playoff race, but star defensive end Mario Williams suffered a foot injury. The NC State product is now using a scooter to move around and remains in doubt for Week 12.

Quarterback Tyrod Taylor (right shoulder) was also injured against New England, but should be good to go against KC.

“I think he’s gonna play,” head coach Rex Ryan told the Associated Press. “I think he’s gonna play. He feels better today than he did, which is good.”

One of the keys for the Bills will be whether they can generate pressure on Smith (either without Williams or with him in a limited capacity). The Bills defense hasn’t generated the same sack totals as it did last year, when it led the league; but Ryan was able to make Tom Brady very uncomfortable in the pocket last week, and the Chiefs’ O-line has allowed Smith to be sacked 33 times this season (second-worst in the league).

The long-term trends favor the Bills: Buffalo has won seven of the last ten meetings. But recent history is with the Chiefs, who won 17-13 in Buffalo last season thanks to a 14-point, fourth-quarter comeback.  The Chiefs are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite.

With Williams unlikely to be his usual self, look for the surging Chiefs to keep Smith relatively clean and establish themselves as a front-runner in the AFC playoff picture.

Pick: Chiefs (-6.5).

(Photo credit: TropicAces, Creative Commons, via Wikimedia Commons.)