- San Francisco point spread odds dip following first loss of the regular season
- 49ers have not covered spread in last two games and are 5-4 on the season
- Arizona boasts a remarkable 7-3 ATS record — are they worth the bet in Week 11?
The unbeaten streak is over for the San Francisco 49ers.
Following their first loss of the NFL regular season, San Francisco slipped to 8-1 on the season heading into a Week 11 matchup vs the Arizona Cardinals.
Sportsbooks released its latest odds on Tuesday morning, listing the 49ers as 11.5-point favorites at home against the Cardinals.
Can the Niners, who are 5-4 ATS on the year and 2-2 at home cover the spread after failing to do so over their last two games?
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals Odds
|Arizona Cardinals||+11.5 (-110)||+445||Ov 46 (-110)|
|San Francisco 49ers||-11.5 (-110)||-550||Un 46 (-110)|
Odds taken Nov. 12
Up until Monday night, there has been little in the way of criticism regarding the 49ers’ season so far. The team had posted a perfect 8-0 record leading up to Monday’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
San Francisco is still among the NFL leaders in defense (14.3 points against per game) and offense (28.8 points for per game) heading into Week 11.
When the lines initially opened for this one, sportsbooks gave the 49ers a 13.5-point advantage on the spread. However, the odds slipped following San Francisco’s first loss of 2019 to its current price of 11.5.
"Jimmy Garoppolo was dead set on turning the ball over as much as possible. This is why, even at 8-0, some of us were hesitant to anoint the 49ers as the best team in the NFL. … After last night, you're not even sure if they're the best team in the NFC West." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/FBe6dDmmBu
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) November 12, 2019
San Francisco Has Been Great, But Not So Much ATS
While the 49ers have been able to pile up the wins to currently lead the NFC West Division at 8-1, the team has struggled to cover point spreads this season.
San Francisco is 5-4 ATS and has not covered in its last two games. In fact, the 49ers have not covered the spread in three of their last four heading into Week 11 action.
This will be the second meeting in two weeks between the 49ers and Cardinals. San Francisco did walk away with a 28-25 win in their last game, but again did not cover the 10-point spread given.
The Cards, on the other hand, boast a remarkable 7-3 record ATS this season, including a 4-1 record in that department on the road. Arizona has covered the spread five of its last six games going into Sunday’s matchup on the road against the 49ers.
— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2019
Cardinals Have the Edge Head-to-Head Over Last 3 Games
Arizona’s 3-6-1 overall record doesn’t look appealing to bettors, but take into consideration that the Cardinals actually have a slight edge in the head-to-head stats leading up to Week 11.
Over the last three meetings between these two NFC West Division rivals, the Cards own a 2-1 record over that stretch.
However, bettors shouldn’t have a lot of confidence wagering on a team that has lost three consecutive games with a schedule that gets even tougher down the stretch.
One of Arizona’s bright spots has come on defense with the play of linebacker Chandler Jones, who is tied for the league lead in sacks with 11.5.
The 49ers offensive line likely won’t give the Cards much in the way of sacks. San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has only been sacked 17 times, which is among the fewest for starting QBs this season.
What is the Best Bet?
It won’t take long for the 49ers to shake off the effects from losing their first game of the season and get back in the win column against the Cardinals.
— Barstool Marist (@BarstoolMarist) November 12, 2019
While the point spread hasn’t been kind to the Niners going into Week 11, this has the making of what could be a blowout in favor of San Francisco.
Let’s not forget that while the Niners are scoring among the highest points per game average in the NFL, the Cardinals rank second-last in yards against (412.5) and points against (28.1) per game. I suspect there could be some buyback on the 49ers after the line came down and believe now would be a good time to bet on San Fran bouncing back in Week 11.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
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