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Odds Favor Tua Being Drafted Before Herbert & Love, Fewer Than 5 QBs Taken in 1st Round

Tua Tagovailoa celebrating a TD
Tua Tagovailoa is favored (-180) to be drafted before Justin Herbert (+150) and Jordan Love (+500). Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire.
  • Tua Tagovailoa is favored (-180) to be drafted ahead of Justin Herbert (+150) and Jordan Love (+500)
  • The odds favor (-140) under 4.5 quarterbacks being drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft
  • Those are just two of the may props being offered on QB’s in this year’s draft; read on for more

With just one game remaining in the NFL season, the attention of football fans begins to turn to the April 25th draft. As always, the position of the most intrigue around the draft is that of quarterback. 

With a group that includes Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love, there are plenty of interesting props being offered on how this position group will play out in the upcoming draft.

The odds of Burrow going first overall are prohibitively short. But which QB goes next is the subject of much debate.

Odds on Which Quarterback Will Be Drafted First (after Joe Burrow)

Player (Team) Odds
Tua Tagovailoa -180
Justin Herbert +150
Jordan Love +500

Odds taken Jan 21.

Tua is the -180 favorite over Herbert (+150) and Love (+500), and for good reason. After Cincinnati’s presumably takes Burrow at #1, the next team in need of a quarterback is Miami, which picks at fifth overall. It has been widely reported that the Dolphins love what Tua brings to the table, and while they’re doing their due diligence on prospects like Love, Tua is the likely pick. 

There was some concern after his late-season hip injury, and the odds were better for him prior, but with the quarterback’s rehab reportedly ahead of schedule, it once again feels like a near-guarantee that he’ll end up in Miami.

Over/Under Quarterbacks Drafted in the First Round

Total Odds
Over 4.5 +100
Under 4.5 -140

Odds taken Jan 21.

While there is plenty of intrigue with this quarterback class, it isn’t quite as deep as the class in 2018, which produced five first-round picks. There is, however, a good chance that it eclipses the mark of three first-rounders posted by last year’s class.

This crop is essentially guaranteed to at least match last year’s, with Burrow, Tua, and Herbert all potentially going in the top ten. However, after that, there is a dip. 

Utah State’s Love has a good chance to go in the first-round, but he would be closer to the end of the round than the front. He would bring the total to four first-round picks, but that would still result in an “under” on this prop. It would take a Jacob Eason or Jake Fromm selection to push this to an “over”, and after their 2019 seasons, a first-round pick feels unlikely.

Additional QB Draft Props

Prop “Yes” Odds “No” Odds
Will a team jump Miami to draft Tua? +200 -300
Will the Chargers draft a quarterback in round 1? -140 +100
Will the Patriots draft a quarterback in round 1? +160 -200
Will Jalen Hurts be drafted in the first two rounds? -120 -120

Odds taken Jan 21.

While Tua is certainly a great prospect, it appears unlikely that a team would jump Miami for a chance to draft him. 

That prop, along with the Chargers’ prop, go hand-in-hand, because it is Los Angeles that has quarterback as a high priority and would be the most likely to make a move. However, with the sixth-overall pick, they don’t particularly need to make a sacrifice to jump ahead for Tua. The Chargers can remain at six and draft Hebert, a quarterback who many have felt is the best prospect of the group. 

The one other big threat to Miami is Detroit at third overall. The Lions likely wouldn’t take a quarterback, but for the right price, they could trade the pick to a team that would. However, if Detroit stays put, they would likely take Jeffrey Okudah from Ohio State, who would provide a huge upgrade to the secondary.

New England currently sits at 23rd overall in the draft. If they are getting ready to move on from Tom Brady, this isn’t the spot where they’ll find the elite passing prospect to do so, and giving away the farm to move up for one guy goes against Bill Belichick’s career-long philosophy on the draft. If they are sticking with Brady to make another run at a Lombardi Trophy, they’re likely to use this pick to upgrade an offense that was devoid of firepower for most of this season. 

The Patriots may draft a quarterback in April, but it would likely be later than the first round.

In recent years, the evaluation of quarterbacks has certainly changed. Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and others have been drafted highly, despite playing in unconventional ways and coming from unconventional offenses. 

This recent development helps Jalen Hurts’ case on draft night. He had a tremendous year at Oklahoma, which did wonders for his draft stock. Under Lincoln Riley, Hurts was the kind of quarterback that many didn’t think he could be. After playing his part in the system at Alabama, Hurts shined as a Sooner.

He won’t go anywhere near where Sooners Murray or Mayfield went, but his chances of being drafted by the end of the second round in this year’s NFL Draft are solid. 

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