Upcoming Match-ups

Odds to Have the Most Passing, Rushing & Receiving Yards in Divisional Round – Best Bets for Each

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Jan 7, 2020 · 7:38 AM PST

Derrick Henry carrying the ball.
Derrick Henry is favored to lead the Divisional Round in rushing after running for 185 yards last weekend. Photo by Mario957 (Wikimedia)
  • Patrick Mahomes had just one 300-yard game in his final six contests
  • Derrick Henry is going up against the league’s fifth-ranked run defense this weekend in Baltimore
  • AJ Brown averaged 100.8 receiving yards over his final six regular season games

The Wild Card round produced some surprising results as Russell Wilson (+500) led the weekend in passing, Derrick Henry (+150) led the league in rushing while rookie DK Metcalf led with receiving. Who’ll lead in each category in the Divisional Round? Let’s take a closer look at the options on the board and see where there’s value.

Most Passing Yards in Divisional Round

Player Season Average (Per Game) Odds
Patrick Mahomes 289.7 +125
Jimmy Garoppolo 248.6 +550
Aaron Rodgers 250.1 +550
Russell Wilson 256.9 +600
Kirk Cousins 240.2 +650
Ryan Tannehill 228.5 +800
Deshaun Watson 256.8 +900
Lamar Jackson 208.5 +1400

Odds taken Jan. 7

In terms of the passing yards prop, it’s Patrick Mahomes that’s favored to lead the Divisional Round in the stat category. However, bettors will have to think twice about betting him as he simply hasn’t been near the MVP-level we saw last year ever since he suffered the ankle injury.

Mahomes threw for at least 300 yards in each of his first five games while tossing 11 touchdowns and no picks. Over the final six games of the year, Mahomes had just one 300-yard game and had eight touchdowns with four interceptions.

However, he is facing a defense that gave up the ninth-most passing yards this season along with the 10th-highest opponent completion percentage. He’s also off a bye week, so this is potentially a good spot for him to have a big game.

Jimmy Garoppolo is next in line in terms of the odds but the Minnesota Vikings gave Drew Brees a hard time last week (Vikings had the fifth-most sacks this season). As for Ryan Tannehill, the Titans offense typically works through Derrick Henry. He had just 72 passing yards last week.

Russell Wilson finished the regular season averaging 229.2 yards-per-game while Aaron Rodgers averaged 209.8 over his last eight. I’d pass on those as well. That brings us back to Mahomes, who looks like the best bet of this bunch.

Most Rushing Yards in Divisional Round

Player Season Average (Per Game) Odds
Derrick Henry 102.7 +150
Dalvin Cook 82.0 +550
Lamar Jackson 80.4 +550
Aaron Jones 67.8 +700
Raheem Mostert 48.3 +800
Mark Ingram 67.9 +800
Carlos Hyde 66.9 +900
Damien Williams 45.3 +900
Marshawn Lynch 34.0 +2000

In terms of the rushing yards leader, it’s not surprising that Henry is our favorite. He led the league in rushing and compiled 182 in last Saturday’s playoff win over the New England Patriots. However, he’s now up against the league’s fifth-best run defense. I wouldn’t bank on him having another huge game.

Dalvin Cook is next in line and he has a better matchup than most people think. The 49ers were actually 23rd in yards-per-carry this season. There might be some room for him to operate, although the 49ers run defense improved as the season went on (100.5 rushing yards per game over their last four).

Some people will take a shot with Carlos Hyde as the Texans ran the ball with success when they beat the Chiefs in Week 6. They had 192 rushing yards and held the ball for 39:48. Carlos Hyde had 116 yards that day. However, the Chiefs run defense got much better in their final five games, so I wouldn’t bank on him running wild again.

Aaron Jones is worth a look in this spot as he’s a little bit overlooked at +700. With Rodgers and the passing game only producing mediocre results, the ground game has to deliver. Seattle allows 4.9 yards-per-carry, which is 28th in the NFL. He’d be my bet with this prop.

Most Receiving Yards in Divisional Round

Player Season Average (Per Game) Odds
Tyreek Hill 71.7 +350
Davante Adams 83.1 +350
DeAndre Hopkins 77.7 +600
AJ Brown 65.7 +750
Stefon Diggs 75.3 +800
Tyler Lockett 66.1 +800
DK Metcalf 56.3 +950
Deebo Samuel 53.5 +1200
Adam Thielen 41.8 +1200
Will Fuller 60.9 +1200
Emmanuel Sanders 51.5 +1200
Marquise Brown 41.7 +1200

Taking a look at the top receiving options on the board, we’ll have to keep in mind some of the information we went over with the quarterbacks as there is a bit of a correlation here. For example, Tyreek Hill, the favorite here, has slumped down the stretch with Mahomes, averaging just 63.4 receiving yards per game over his last five contests.

Davante Adams, who is the co-favorite, is in a similar boat. He gets a bigger share of the targets and catches on his team (than Hill) but he averaged 76.7 receiving yards per game over his final six contests, which is a decline over his season average. With the co-favorites not looking so hot, it suggests that this prop is wide open for anyone to win.

From the favorites, I like DeAndre Hopkins as he should have good matchups against the Kansas City Chiefs. He’s had 90 or more receiving yards in four of his last six games. From the longer shots, I like AJ Brown. He was quiet last week but finished the regular season averaging 100.8 receiving yards over his final six games.

The Titans probably won’t be able to run the ball so easily this week and will be forced to pass. I also think they’ll be playing from behind a lot, so that will also put them in more passing situations. The matchup is not great but the game flow should be in his favor. At +750, he’d be my play.

Author Image