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Odds to Score the Most Points on Wild Card Weekend: Saints Favored

Drew Brees handing off
Sportsbooks favor the New Orleans Saints to score the most points during the NFL's Wild Card playoff weekend. Photo by Keith Allison (Flickr).
  • Oddsmakers list the New Orleans Saints as +275 favorites to score the most points during the NFL’s Wild Card playoff weekend
  • Since Week 11, New Orleans has averaged an NFL-leading 36.3 points per game
  • The New England Patriots (+475) are the second choice in this betting market – check our betting prediction below

The New Orleans Saints have proven to be the #1 team at putting up points down the stretch in the NFL regular season. Sportsbooks see  that level of productivity continuing into the Wild Card Weekend of the NFL playoffs.

The Saints are established as +275 favorites to score the most points of any of the eight teams that will take the field for Wild Card Weekend in a prop on offer. Since Week 11, New Orleans has averaged an NFL-leading 36.3 points per game.

Odds To Score Most Points During NFL Wild Card Games

Team Points Per Game (NFL Rank) Odds
New Orleans Saints 28.6 (3) +275
New England Patriots 26.2 (7) +475
Houston Texans 23.6 (14) +550
Seattle Seahawks 25.3 (9) +600
Philadelphia Eagles 24.1 (12) +650
Buffalo Bills 19.6 (23) +700
Tennessee Titans 25.1 (10) +800
Minnesota Vikings 25.4 (8) +950

Odds taken Dec. 31st.

The Saints have averaged 40 points over their final four regular-season games.

Saints Making Their Points

Everywhere you look, it points to the Saints putting up points in Sunday’s NFC Wild Card game against the Minnesota Vikings.

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees passed for 15 touchdowns over the past four games. All-purpose running back Alvin Kamara found the end zone four times in the past two weeks. Tight end Jared Cook caught nine TD passes, a career high. Michael Thomas caught more balls (149) this season than any wide receiver in NFL history.

On top of that, in their last six quarters of head-to-head action against the Vikings, the Saints have scored 54 points.

True, Minnesota is the NFL’s #5 scoring defense, allowing 18.9 points per game. But the Saints put up 46 points against the  San Francisco 49ers, the league’s #8 scoring defense at 19.8 ppg. They also scored 38 on Tennessee’s #12 scoring defense (20.8 ppg).

Historically, Patriots Light Up Titans

The last three times that the Tennessee Titans have visited Gillette Field, they’ve been torched by the New England Patriots. They’ve allowed a total of 127 points in those three games. That’s an average of 42.3 points per game.

That includes a Jan. 13th, 2018 AFC Divisional Round playoff game in which the Patriots humbled the Titans 35-14.

On the flip side, the Titans have scored at least 30 points in five of their past seven games.

New England is the NFL’s #1 scoring defense at 14.1 ppg. However, after allowing no more than 14 points a game during the first eight games of the season, the Pats have coughed up at least 23 points in four of their last eight games.

Over the past two weeks of regular-season play, New England’s pass defense was sixth-worst in the NFL, allowing an opposition passer rating of 98.99.

The Pats are 0-4 when surrendering 20 points. QB Ryan Tannehill has led the Titans to at least 20 points in all 10 games he’s started this season.

At +800, the Titans would make a sensational value bet.

Not Wild About Playing These Cards

You can try to make a case for the Vikings as a solid value bet at +950. Minnesota was the #8 scoring offense and New Orleans was the #13 scoring defense (21.3 ppg). The problem with this scenario is you’re counting on Vikings QB Kirk Cousins coming up big. Minny averaged nine points over its last two visits to NOLA.

The Houston Texans are inconsistent and in the Buffalo Bills, face the NFL’s #2 scoring defense (16.2 ppg). Philadelphia (15th, 22.1 ppg) and Seattle (22, 24.9 ppg) have defenses that give up points. But in a regular-season meeting, the Seahawks won 17-9.

Any way you look at it, the smart play comes back to the Saints.

Pick: New Orleans (+275)

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