Odds to Catch Drew Brees’ 500th TD Pass: Kamara & Thomas Favored
- Drew Brees has thrown 499 career touchdown passes
- He’s set to join Manning, Favre, Brady in 500-TD club
- Stingy Ravens defense stands in way of Brees’ date with history
Drew Brees will be poised to write another new chapter in the NFL record books this weekend, when he leads the New Orleans Saints into action against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday as 2.5-point underdogs on the NFL Week 7 odds.
Brees has already moved past Peyton Manning to set the NFL record for most career passing yards while tossing for 363 yards in the Saints’ victory as 5.5-point chalk in Week 5. Now he’s set to join Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, and Tom Brady in the 500-touchdown club, currently sitting at 499.
While it’s a near certainty Brees will accomplish this feat, the question is who will catch the 500th touchdown pass.
Odds to catch Drew Brees 500th TD Pass
| Who will catch Drew Brees 500th TD Pass | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | +250 |
| Michael Thomas | +250 |
| Benjamin Watson | +500 |
| Cameron Meredith | +500 |
| Mark Ingram | +500 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | +500 |
| Austin Carr | +1000 |
| Josh Hill | +1000 |
His two favorite downfield targets, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas, are pegged as +250 co-favorites to make the historic TD catch on the NFL specials.
Kamara, Thomas Emerge as Brees’ Favorite Downfield Targets
Thomas has consistently clicked with Brees this season, making 46 catches on 49 targets, and leads the Saints with three touchdown receptions.
However, Thomas has seen his work load diminish dramatically in recent weeks, seeing just nine total targets in his past two games. This trend is expected to continue with RB Mark Ingram back in the lineup.
New Orleans Saints: Tempering expectations for Alvin Kamara https://t.co/7wKsY4HOKG pic.twitter.com/dxksmuw8S7
— Zesty NFL Saints (@zesty_saints) October 18, 2018
Kamara has continued to do it all for the Saints after claiming NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors last season.
The 23-year-old running back has rushed for a team-leading five scores, and emerged as Brees’ favorite target, making 38 catches on 51 targets to date. But he has failed to catch a TD pass since the team’s 48-40 loss to Tampa Bay in Week 1.
Return of Ingram Easing the Burden
Ingram looked game-ready in his season debut two weeks ago, taking some of the burden off Kamara with 16 carries for 53 yards and two touchdowns, while also making a pair of catches.
The 2009 Heisman Trophy winner enters Sunday’s contest knotted with tight end Benjamin Watson, and receivers Cameron Meredith and Tre’Quan Smith as a +500 wager to be on the receiving end of Bree’s 500th TD pass.
Former UCF standout catches Drew Brees' pass to move to #1 on the all-time passing yards list! https://t.co/7oaorcy8IH
— CC Alafaya (@livealafaya) October 9, 2018
Ingram has topped 50 receptions in a season twice in his NFL career, but has seen his downfield use diminish since making four scoring catches in 2016.
Opportunity Knocks for Meredith, Smith
Opportunity may be knocking for Meredith and Smith, who are most likely to benefit from the absence of receiver Ted Ginn Jr, who was placed on injured reserve this week.
Smith became a part of history by pulling in the touchdown pass that pushed Brees past Manning in career passing yards two weeks ago
With Ginn sidelined, Meredith was elevated to a full participant at practice this week.
The fourth-year wideout pulled in all five throws tossed at him against Washington, but was hobbled at practice this week by a knee injury, and also produced uneven results that made him a healthy scratch in the first two weeks of the season.
Full story on Saints placing WR Ted Ginn Jr. on injured reserve — which will mean a greater role for backup WRs Tre'Quan Smith and Cameron Meredith https://t.co/l2AKLngA3E
— Mike Triplett (@MikeTriplett) October 18, 2018
A rookie out of UCF, Smith became a part of history by pulling in the touchdown pass that pushed Brees past Manning in career passing yards two weeks ago.
Smith added a second score while racking up 111 yards in his biggest game as a pro, and provides plenty of value as a +500 wager to make history with Brees again this weekend.
Ravens Stingy Defense Shutting Down Opposing Passers
However, Brees and the Saints must first find a way to expose a stingy Ravens pass defense that has held opposing pivots to just 188 passing yards per game while surrendering just two total touchdown passes over their past four outings.
Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
