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Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2022 – Brady Favored Over Mahomes

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Apr 9, 2022 · 7:00 AM PDT

Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Jan. 9, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Ellen Schmidt)
  • Buccs quarterback Tom Brady is +800 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage in 2022n
  • Brady passed for a league-leading 5316 yards during the 2021 campaign
  • Five other QBs are at odds of +1000 or shorter

Is it a curse to lead the NFL in passing yards? Lately, that’s a fair question.

The 2020 leader was Deshaun Watson. He didn’t play at all last season, demanding a trade from the Houston Texans.

In 2019, Jameis Winston topped the league. During the offseason, he wasn’t offered a new contract by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

After leading the NFL in passing yards in 2018, Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers was limited to two games the next year after suffering a season-ending elbow injury.

You’d think all this recent history would be foreboding for 2021 leader Tom Brady but oddsmakers aren’t buying into this apparent trend. They are setting Brady as the +800 favorite to repeat as NFL passing yardage leader.

2022 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds

Quarterback (Team) Odds
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) +800
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) +850
Justin Herbert (Chargers) +900
Matthew Stafford (Rams) +900
Dak Prescott (Cowboys) +1000
Joe Burrow (Bengals) +1000
Derek Carr (Raiders) +1200
Josh Allen (Bills) +1200
Russell Wilson (Broncos) +1500
Kirk Cousins (Vikings) +1500
Aaron Rodgers (Packers) +1200
Kyler Murray (Cardinals) +2000
Matt Ryan (Colts) +2000
Deshaun Watson (Browns) +2000
Mac Jones (Patriots) +2500
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) +3000
Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers) +3000
Ryan Tannehill (Titans) +3000
Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) +4000
Carson Wentz (Commanders) +4000

Odds as of April 9th at Caesars Sportsbook

The top of the odds board is crowded. Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is at +850, followed by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers (+900). Both starting QBs from last season’s Super Bowl – Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals – as well as Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys – are all grouped at +1000.


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Brady A Consistent Performer

Originally, Brady was going to give the 2022 campaign a pass. He’d announced his retirement following last season but a couple of months later, changed his mind.

Brady has led the NFL in passing yards three times during his unparalleled career. But he’s never come close to doing it in back-to-back seasons.

After leading in 2017, he finished seventh overall in 2018. Following his 2005 win, he also finished seventh, so maybe the bet to make on Brady is that he’ll finish seventh this season.

Brady is the only QB to rank among the top seven NFL passers in yardage in each of the past five years. Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints (2014-15-16) was the last QB to lead the NFL in passing yards in successive seasons.

Standing Pat

Certainly, the departure of speed merchant Tyreek Hill leaves a hole in the Kansas City offense that figures to impact the chances of Mahomes piling up enough yards through the air to lead the league.

However, there’s another factor to take into consideration. Even with Hill to spread out defenses, Mahomes has never finished as the league’s top passer. He’s finished second in both 2018 and 2020.

Similarly, both Stafford and Prescott have frequently hovered near the top of the leaderboard but neither has ever finished atop the group.

Is Watson Worth A Look?

He did lead the league during his last NFL season. Watson is going to a Cleveland team that is thought of as a playoff team and even a Super Bowl contender.

Yet much like his career trajectory, there are significant highs and incredulous lows in the Browns’ story. It’s so hard to say whether this will be a smooth pairing or a trainwreck waiting to happen.

It’s Justin’s Time

On the other hand, Herbert’s trajectory is steadily upward. His first two seasons have provided record-setting performances. He rewrote the rookie passing standards in 2021. Last season, he became the first QB of the Super Bowl era to complete 500 passes before completing 20 games.

In 2021, he established franchise marks for passing yards (5014) and touchdown passes (38), finishing second to Brady in the former category.

Both Herbert and the Chargers are trending in the right direction. It’s expected that the team will get him another weapon and select a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft.

In 2022, it’s going to be Justin’s time.

Pick: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+900)

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