Odds to Lead NFL in Passing Yards in 2022 – Brady Favored Over Mahomes
- Buccs quarterback Tom Brady is +800 favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage in 2022n
- Brady passed for a league-leading 5316 yards during the 2021 campaign
- Five other QBs are at odds of +1000 or shorter
Is it a curse to lead the NFL in passing yards? Lately, that’s a fair question.
The 2020 leader was Deshaun Watson. He didn’t play at all last season, demanding a trade from the Houston Texans.
In 2019, Jameis Winston topped the league. During the offseason, he wasn’t offered a new contract by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
After leading the NFL in passing yards in 2018, Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers was limited to two games the next year after suffering a season-ending elbow injury.
You’d think all this recent history would be foreboding for 2021 leader Tom Brady but oddsmakers aren’t buying into this apparent trend. They are setting Brady as the +800 favorite to repeat as NFL passing yardage leader.
2022 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Odds
| Quarterback (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tom Brady (Buccaneers) | +800 |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +850 |
| Justin Herbert (Chargers) | +900 |
| Matthew Stafford (Rams) | +900 |
| Dak Prescott (Cowboys) | +1000 |
| Joe Burrow (Bengals) | +1000 |
| Derek Carr (Raiders) | +1200 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +1200 |
| Russell Wilson (Broncos) | +1500 |
| Kirk Cousins (Vikings) | +1500 |
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | +1200 |
| Kyler Murray (Cardinals) | +2000 |
| Matt Ryan (Colts) | +2000 |
| Deshaun Watson (Browns) | +2000 |
| Mac Jones (Patriots) | +2500 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) | +3000 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers) | +3000 |
| Ryan Tannehill (Titans) | +3000 |
| Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) | +4000 |
| Carson Wentz (Commanders) | +4000 |
Odds as of April 9th at Caesars Sportsbook
The top of the odds board is crowded. Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs is at +850, followed by Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers (+900). Both starting QBs from last season’s Super Bowl – Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals – as well as Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys – are all grouped at +1000.
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Brady A Consistent Performer
Originally, Brady was going to give the 2022 campaign a pass. He’d announced his retirement following last season but a couple of months later, changed his mind.
Brady has led the NFL in passing yards three times during his unparalleled career. But he’s never come close to doing it in back-to-back seasons.
Tom Brady has won a Super Bowls during the Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.
Tom Brady = America’s QB pic.twitter.com/9CHlHlySjB
— TB12 (@TomBradyEgo) March 31, 2022
After leading in 2017, he finished seventh overall in 2018. Following his 2005 win, he also finished seventh, so maybe the bet to make on Brady is that he’ll finish seventh this season.
Brady is the only QB to rank among the top seven NFL passers in yardage in each of the past five years. Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints (2014-15-16) was the last QB to lead the NFL in passing yards in successive seasons.
Standing Pat
Certainly, the departure of speed merchant Tyreek Hill leaves a hole in the Kansas City offense that figures to impact the chances of Mahomes piling up enough yards through the air to lead the league.
Patrick Mahomes on how Tyreek Hill being traded can benefit the offense in 2022:
“I’ll be able to spread the ball around more this year and let these other guys make plays happen. … I think it’ll help our offense in a sense where they can’t just focus on Travis and Tyreek.” pic.twitter.com/ESBdR9kflV
— Sea of Red Nation (@seaofrednation) April 1, 2022
However, there’s another factor to take into consideration. Even with Hill to spread out defenses, Mahomes has never finished as the league’s top passer. He’s finished second in both 2018 and 2020.
Similarly, both Stafford and Prescott have frequently hovered near the top of the leaderboard but neither has ever finished atop the group.
Is Watson Worth A Look?
He did lead the league during his last NFL season. Watson is going to a Cleveland team that is thought of as a playoff team and even a Super Bowl contender.
The last time Deshaun Watson played football, he led the entire NFL in passing. pic.twitter.com/8yV4FR1RSk
— Nick Karns (@karnsies817) April 4, 2022
Yet much like his career trajectory, there are significant highs and incredulous lows in the Browns’ story. It’s so hard to say whether this will be a smooth pairing or a trainwreck waiting to happen.
It’s Justin’s Time
On the other hand, Herbert’s trajectory is steadily upward. His first two seasons have provided record-setting performances. He rewrote the rookie passing standards in 2021. Last season, he became the first QB of the Super Bowl era to complete 500 passes before completing 20 games.
In 2021, he established franchise marks for passing yards (5014) and touchdown passes (38), finishing second to Brady in the former category.
Justin Herbert's ranks among QBs in their first 2 seasons in NFL history
Rank
Pass TD 69 1st
Pass Yds 9,350 1st
Completions 839 1st pic.twitter.com/JolqPJvZcC— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) April 4, 2022
Both Herbert and the Chargers are trending in the right direction. It’s expected that the team will get him another weapon and select a wide receiver in the first round of the NFL Draft.
In 2022, it’s going to be Justin’s time.
Pick: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (+900)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
