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Odds of a Wild Card Team Making the Super Bowl Listed at +400; Does Seattle Provide Hope?

Angelo Montilla

by Angelo Montilla in NFL Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 10:29 AM PDT

Russell Wilson
No NFL wild-card team has reached the Super Bowl since 2010. Can the Seattle Seahawks snap that long drought? Photo By Larry Maurer (Wiki Commons)
  • 2010 Packers the last wild card team to make the Super Bowl
  • Only three wild card teams have reached the Super Bowl in the last 15 years
  • Patriots, Saints and Seahawks best wild card bets to snap long-lasting drought

It’s not very often an NFL wild card team makes it to the Super Bowl, let alone wins the championship.

Oddsmakers released a pair of prop bets, including whether a wild card team will reach the final, with “No” coming in as the heavy -700 favorite.

Is there any value in betting “Yes” at +400? With teams like the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks all in wild card positions, this may be the year a lower-seed team makes a run for the title.

Odds a Wild Card Team Will Make the Super Bowl

Projection Odds
No -700
Yes +400

Odds taken on Dec. 30

Only one wild card team has reached the final in the last decade — the 2010 Green Bay Packers, who also went on to win the Super Bowl in 2010.

That year, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers finished second in the NFC North with a 10-6 record. They went on to beat the Eagles, Falcons and Bears en route to a Super Bowl XLV win over the Steelers.

Prior to that, it was the 2007 New York Giants that shocked the football world with a victory over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. What made this victory even more special is the fact that the Giants had to win every playoff game on the road. The 2005 Steelers won the Super Bowl as a wild card team, defeating the Seahawks 21-10 in the championship game.

Patriots Play in Wild Card for First Time in 10 Seasons

Tom Brady and the Patriots are in some unfamiliar territory heading into the playoffs as the defending champions will play in a wild card game against the Tennessee Titans instead of getting their usual first-round bye.

This of course was self-inflicted after the Patriots blew a shot at finishing as the two-seed following their loss to the Dolphins in Week 17.

The Patriots enter the matchup against the Titans as 4.5-point favorites, according to recent NFL odds released for the Wild Card Round.


Do the Patriots have a legitimate shot to come out of the AFC with the Chiefs and Ravens standing in the way? New England suffered losses to both of those teams in the regular season, so the answer is likely not.

The remaining AFC wild card teams are considered real longshots with the Texans having the best chance of going all the way.

The wild card teams in the NFC have a greater shot of making it to the Super Bowl — most notably the Saints and Seahawks heading into the playoffs.

Pick: Yes (+400)

Odds a Wild Card Team Wins the Super Bowl

Projection Odds
No -1500
Yes +700

Both the Saints and Seahawks draw very winnable first-round opponents heading into the playoffs. New Orleans (13-3), which should have been a top-two seed in the NFC, will host the Minnesota Vikings in the wild card round.

The Saints topped the NFC South Division and won six of their last seven games to close out the regular season. A win against the Vikes in the opening round would likely set up a divisional playoff matchup against the streaky Green Bay Packers.

New Orleans heads into the playoffs with a well-rested Drew Brees, whose thumb injury at the start of the year forced him to the sidelines for five games. Since returning, the future Hall of Fame QB has looked incredible, finishing the season with 2,979 passing yards and a completion rate of 74.3%.

“It’s rare to be 13-3 and potentially a three-seed,” Brees told reporters prior to learning that the Saints would indeed be a wild card team.

The Seahawks are another team to watch closely. Seattle finished 11-5 and will start on the road against Philly. A victory could set up another date against the 49ers — a team they split their two games against this season.

It’s vital to do your homework when betting on a wild card team as history has shown that it’s difficult to go all the way. However, this is a strange season in which top-tier teams find themselves playing in the Wild Card Round.

Of all the wild card teams that could make it to or even win a Super Bowl this season, the Saints look like serious contenders.

Pick: Yes (+700)

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