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Opening Bills vs Broncos Odds, Spread, Total for Divisional Round

Sascha Paruk

By Sascha Paruk in NFL News

Published:


Buffalo Bills players celebrating a TD
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17), right, celebrates his touchdown with teammate tight end Dawson Knox (88) during the fourth quarter of an NFL football AFC Wild Card playoff matchup, Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Bills defeated the Jaguars 27-24. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
  • The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos will meet at Mile High in the NFL Divisional Round
  • The Bills/Broncos odds project a razor-thin margin
  • See the opening Bills vs Broncos odds, including spread, moneyline, and game total, for the 2026 playoffs

After a wild back-and-forth victory over Jacksonville, the #6 Buffalo Bills (13-5, 6-3 away) have advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, where they will meet the top-seeded Denver Broncos (14-3, 8-1 home). Despite Denver getting the week to rest and having home-field advantage, the Broncos have opened as a slight home underdog.

The Bills and Broncos will meet on either Saturday, Jan 17th, or Sunday, Jan 18th, with a spot in the AFC Championship Game on the line.

Opening BUF Bills vs DEN Broncos Odds & Spread

MarketBillsBroncos
Spread-1.5 (-110)+1.5 (-110)
Moneyline-126+108
TotalO 47.5 (-110)U 47.5 (-110)

The spread has opened at BUF -1.5 with the Bills a -126 favorite on the moneyline. The Broncos come back as modest +108 home underdogs. The game total is sitting at 47.5 with the under slightly favored at -115.

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The Bills knocked the Broncos out of the postseason last year during the Wild Card Round, romping to a 31-7 win in Orchard Park. This is just Denver’s second playoff appearance of the last ten years, and the first time they’ve made back-to-back postseason appearances since 2014 and 2015.

BUF vs DEN Statistical Comparison

BillsStatisticBroncos
28.3Points Per Game23.6
21.5Points Allowed Per Game18.3
376.3Yards Per Game342.6
293.1Yards Allowed Per Game278.2
+1Turnover Differential-3
8thDVOA Rank7th
10thPFF Rank6th
+116Point Differential+90

The Broncos rated better than the Bills in DVOA during the regular season, and finished one spot higher in PFF’s overall rankings. But the Bills had a point differential that was 26 better than Denver, largely thanks to their elite offense, which finished fourth in the NFL in scoring (28.2 PPG).

The winner of the Bills/Broncos will face the winner of the New England Patriots vs Houston Texans/Pittsburgh Steelers. Houston and Pittsburgh wrap up Wild Card weekend on Monday night.

Keep an eye on the NFL public betting percentages in the coming hours and days to see where the money is going and how the lines have shifted.

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Sascha Paruk
Sascha Paruk

Managing Editor

Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.

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